Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 AM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The front associated with the remnant low from Tropical Storm
Tapah in the Central Bering Sea will continue to bring rain,
strong winds and elevated water levels to the west coast through
this evening and continues to be the main forecast challenge in
the short term. A second system will bring more substantial
precipitation to the west coast and western Interior as well as
strong winds through the Alaska Range Passes late this weekend and
into early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior: A an upper level ridge continues to
move over the Interior and will limit the chances of precipitation
today and Saturday. A front associated with a low moving north
along the west coast will bring precipitation to the Interior
Saturday night into Monday. A push of warm air with this system
will cause snow levels to rise as the precipitation moves into the
area. Because of this we are expecting this to be a mostly rain
event at the moment; however, the snow levels do drop off late in
the event, so some snow is possible at the beginning and the end
of the event. The pressure gradient will tighten up across the
Alaska Range Saturday night. This will cause strong, southerly gap
winds to develop near Alaska Range passes on Sunday into Sunday
night. Current guidance indicates wind gusts over 50 mph with
this event.

West Coast and Western Interior: The front associated with the
strong low in the western Bering Sea continue to bring strong
winds to the west coast today into tonight with the strongest
winds expected during the day today. Rainfall continues to push
north along the coast today, but will not extend that far inland.
Because of the expected strong winds, High Surf Advisories have
been issued for the Bering Strait and Southern Seward Peninsula
and will continue through 6 AM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued for the Kotlik area through 6 AM Saturday as
well. The strongest winds with this system are expected today.
The next system will arrive early Sunday as a low tracks north
along the coast. This system will bring rainfall to much of the
west coast and western Interior. Current guidance suggests
rainfall totals in the one to two inch range. This system has a
lot of warm air associated with it, so snow levels will rise above
6,000 feet ahead of the storm and then drop back down to around
2,000 feet as the storm pushes east into the Central Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Typical weather for late
September will continue for the area. Clouds increase today
especially along the Western North slope as a front approaches
from the south. The front will spread rain to the northwest coast
today, then slowly east to the Central Brooks Range and Central
Arctic Coast by Saturday morning. Winds northeast to east 5 to 15
mph will swing around to west to northwest to 10 mph as the high
pressure pushes into the area. Leeside troughing developing today
to the north of the Brooks Range will produce some gusty south
winds near passes to 35 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low pressure system
develops along the frontal boundary stalled along the West Coast
on Saturday with a 1000 mb low developing over Bristol Bay on
Saturday. The low deepens as it moves north over Western Alaska
and the West Coast Sunday. Models show considerable spread on the
track and strength of the low. Will need to closely monitor track
and strength for possible coastal impacts Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams continue to fall slowly or continue steady.
Continue to monitor the possibility of heavy rain over the West
Coast and Western Interior Sunday and Monday where latest guidance
continues to indicate widespread storm totals of .5 to 1.5 inches
of rain and local totals in favored upslope areas such as the
Nulato Hills and the Western Alaska Range of nearly 2 inches of
rain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC SEP 19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
839 AM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2019

AKZ207-280800-
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
839 AM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...Elevated Sea Levels and Wave Action Through Tonight...

A weather front associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm
Tapah is currently moving through the Bering Sea. This front will
bring elevated sea levels and increased wave action today and
tonight as the winds continue at 25 to 40 mph from the southeast.
The sea level will increase to about two feet above the normal
high tide line for areas north of Cape Krusenstern.

Residents should move possessions well above the normal high tide
line in preparation for this event.

For the latest weather forecasts, Warnings, and Advisories go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1106 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SCAMMON BAY             61.84N 165.58W
09/24/2019                   KUSILVAK           AK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SCAMMON BAY OF 60MPH WIND GUSTS
            THAT CAUSED A ROOF TO BREAK OFF AND BOATS TO
            SWAMP. THE TIN ROOF RIPPED OFF AND CUT THE
            POWER LINES THAT WERE CONNECTED TO THE HOUSE
            AND THE HOUSE NEXT DOOR.

&&

JAC