Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

653 
FZAK52 PAFG 282224
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291430-
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure will move over the Bering Strait tonight
night, the rotate over the Arctic Coast as a strong low moves into
the western Bering Sea Friday night. As the low moves N and W, a 
986 mb low will quickly develop 250 NM N of Shemya tonight and 
quickly move N and onshore Kamchatka Friday afternoon, pushing a 
weather front E and N across the eastern Bering. The low will 
move NE across the Chukotsk Peninsula Friday and the Chukchi Sea 
Friday night while high pressure build over Interior Alaska.

$$

PKZ200-291430-
Norton Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291430-
Dall Point to Wales-
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas calm. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291430-
Kotzebue Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-291430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
224 PM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Mar 19

798 
FZAK52 PAFG 291138
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300215-
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure centered over Alaska will extend over the
Eastern Bering Sea through Sunday as low pressure continues over 
the Western Bering Sea. 

$$

PKZ200-300215-
Norton Sound-
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300215-
Dall Point to Wales-
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300215-
Kotzebue Sound-
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-300215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
338 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

CCC Mar 19

870 
FZAK52 PAFG 292203
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301445-
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure centered over Alaska will extend over the
Eastern Bering Sea through Sunday as low pressure continues over 
the Western Bering Sea.

$$

PKZ200-301445-
Norton Sound-
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301445-
Dall Point to Wales-
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301445-
Kotzebue Sound-
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
203 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Mar 19

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKDT Wed Mar 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Low pressure over the Chukchi Sea will move northeast
into the Arctic, and winds will continue to diminish along the
northwest Arctic coast. A weak area of low pressure will move
into the southern Interior from the southwest, bringing light rain
and snow to the area Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will
build over the state Thu and Fri. Another low will move into the
Arctic from Siberia Fri night and Sat, bringing gusty winds and
snow to the Arctic coast and into the Brooks Range.

Models...Solutions are still iffy on the seasonal transition, at
least in the mid-term. The 27/12 solutions show good agreement
for the first 24 to 36 hours, but quickly diverge afterward. Went
with the NAM/MET winds for the next 36 hours, then blended that a
little more with the CONSRaw later as model solutions began to
diverge. seems to work best for precipitation, so went with that
solution there.

Aloft...At 500 hPa...Ridging is hanging on with a 562 dam high
pressure center over Yakutat, and the rather broad ridge extends
north through the Alaskan Interior and across the AlCan border.
Pretty good southwest flow in between that high and a 511 dam low
located over Siberia. A trough extends from that low through the
Bering Sea and through the Pribilof Islands. This trough will
slowly make its way eastward and will be over the west coast of AK
by around 15Z Thursday. It will continue east through the day Thu
and into Fri, serving to flatten out the ridge that will then
still be lingering just across the Canadian border. There are some
indications of a cutoff low developing over Kodiak Island Thu
night or Fri morning, but there is still some model discrepancy
there. Either way, behind the trough another ridge will move into
the west coast Fri morning and will become a broad ridge that will
dominate the pattern aloft across the CWA throughout the weekend.

Surface...Generally ridging is present over the Interior with a
1026 mb high building northeast into the southern AK Interior. A
shortwave moving through the ridge brought some precipitation to
the area this morning, but this has since flattened out and moved
toward the AlCan border. A 995 mb low is centered north of Wrangel
Island with a trough extending east across the Beaufort Sea. This
low will move northeast over the Arctic by Thursday night. By Friday,
the ridge over the mainland will amplify into the North Slope.
Another low developing over the Bering Sea will push into the
North Slope Fri night and into Saturday, quickly flattening the
ridge and bringing strong winds to the North Slope and the Brooks
Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Strong winds over the northwest
Arctic Coast will diminish as the low pressure makes its way
northeast into the Arctic tonight. Relatively quiet conditions
through Friday, although some light snow is possible along the
frontal boundary as the low makes its way across the Beaufort Sea
and into the Arctic. The next low pressure system makes its way
across Fri night/Sat. The greatest precipitation amounts from this
system will be along the northwest Arctic coast, although some is
expected to spread eastward along the North Slope. With this
system, strong winds can be expected along the North Slope and the
Brooks Range, but these may be dampened somewhat by the time these
reach the passes further east in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Generally mild conditions
through early Friday morning, but winds will increase Friday as
another front moves in from the west. South to southeast winds
will likely peak Friday evening while across the Brooks Range
winds will peak Saturday, with some gusts reaching or
exceeding 50 mph. Friday night and Saturday, expect light snow
accumulations with the exception of over higher elevations of the
Seward Peninsula and across upslope regions of the western Brooks
Range, where 4 to 6 inches are possible.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some patchy dense fog set up over
portions of the Interior this morning, the last of which is just
dissipating this afternoon. Thursday, a weather system moves into
the Interior from the southwest. With temperatures in the low to
mid-30s, this will bring a rain snow mix to the region, and most
of the Interior can expect to see between a quarter of an inch and
an inch and a half of snow. In the Fairbanks area, it is a little
tricky nailing down exactly where the rain/snow line will be, but
right now it is looking like the hills will see up to an inch and
a half of snow, while most likely the valley areas of Fairbanks
will see light rain. Behind this system, ridging will build back
into the area and remain into the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

MAR 19