Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

158 
WWAK59 PAFG 030251
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
649 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

AKZ222-030259-
/O.CAN.PAFG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190603T0300Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
649 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning for downtown 
Fairbanks and Ft Wainwright is now cancelled. The storm has now 
moved over West Fairbanks and is moving to the southwest. 


LAT...LON 6480 14782 6486 14782 6490 14749 6479 14750
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 240DEG 0KT 6490 14754 

$$

JB

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Our main forecast challenges today will be hydrology related.
Recent rainfall will cause rises in rivers and small streams over
the next day or so in the southern Interior and the Alaska Range.
Water levels on the Koyukuk River near Huslia remain high due to
the upriver snowmelt. The other issue that we will be monitoring
today is the potential for thunderstorms across the Interior this
afternoon and evening.

The 12 UTC model suite initialized well when compared to
observations. The models are in generally good agreement with the
synoptic scale pattern out through Tuesday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 548 dam low is currently situated over Ft.
McPherson, NWT while a 558 dam high is situated over Kotzebue.
This pattern is bringing a north to northwest flow to much of the
forecast area. The features mentioned above will remain generally
stationary tonight before starting to slide to the west tomorrow.
By Monday afternoon the low will be situated over Eagle while the
high will be located over the Bering Sea. This pattern will remain
in place through Tuesday. Thereafter, the low will slide to the
south and the ridge will push back to the east; however, the
models differ on the exact details of when and how quickly this
will take place.

Central and Eastern Interior: A shortwave moving to the south
over the area will bring some scattered showers this afternoon
and evening. The shortwave will be moving over an area with decent
instability thanks to relatively moist antecedent conditions. The
current GFS is showing surface based CAPE values of 300-500 J/kg
across much of the Interior south of Livengood with weakly
negative LI values. This swill be sufficient for some isolated
thunderstorms across the area. Some thunderstorms may produce
small hail or gusty winds. Some patchy valley fog is possible
again tomorrow morning, especially in areas closer to the Alaska
Range. Tomorrow will be a little bit warmer than today will
temperatures in generally in the 60s, although a few locations may
see temperatures reach into the lower 70s. Scattered showers and
Isolated thunderstorms will generally be confined to areas from
Delta Junctions southeast as well as from Tanana west. On Tuesday,
the temperatures will be similar to Monday. Isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers along with isolated thunderstorms
are possible on Tuesday southwest of a line form Chicken to
Stevens Village.

West Coast and Western Interior: Low clouds and fog are the
biggest issue along the west coast. Current GOES-17 visible
satellite imagery shows an extensive area of low clouds over the
southern Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound, Norton Sound, and the
eastern Bering Sea. This area of lower clouds and fog should
persist tonight into Monday. Given the light generally onshore
winds we expect fog and low clouds to persist into Monday morning.
An area of high pressure over the central Bering Sea will
intensity on Monday. This will cause the winds to pick up in
Norton and Kotzebue Sounds on Monday afternoon. The winds will die
back down Monday night as the ridge of high pressure moves east
over the coast.  In the western Interior, a thermal trough will
provide a forcing mechanism for some isolated to scattered showers
this afternoon and evening. Along the thermal trough we will see
surface based CAPE values of 300-900 J/kg along with weakly
negative LI values. This should be more than sufficient for
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some
thunderstorms may produce small hail or gusty winds. Temperatures
on Monday should be within a degree or two of today with similar
conditions expected on Tuesday. This will mean temperatures in the
60s to lower 70s in the Western Interior and temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast. Isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are possible tomorrow across the western
Interior. On Tuesday, the thermal trough will slide to the east
some, this should limit the isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to areas to the east of Galena.

North Slope and Brooks Range: High pressure over the Beaufort Sea
combined with a low near Point Hope will help to keep easterly
winds in place along the coast through the night. The area of
lower pressure will move to near Point Lay tonight. This will
cause a modest increase in the easterly winds along the Beaufort
Sea Coast. By tomorrow afternoon we will likely see gusts of
around 35 mph from Deadhorse east. Satellite shows an extensive
area of low stratus and fog over the ocean and along the coast.
The easterly winds will keep the stratus and fog along the coast
into Monday. The wind direction will be favorable for fog and
lower clouds to persist for areas to the east of Utqiagvik for
much of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Limited fire weather concerns over the next few days across the
area. Recent rainfall across the southern Interior has brought
ample moisture to the southern Interior. We expect things to
gradually dry out over the next few days. Minimum RH values are
generally expected to remain above 30 percent on Monday, although
the Yukon Flats and the middle Tanana Valley will drop into the
upper 20 percent range on Monday.

An area of widely scattered thunderstorms is expected along the
thermal trough extending from near Fairbanks westward to Galena
and southward to near McGrath this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms will again develop over the
Western Interior south of the Western Brooks Range southward to
McGrath on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall Friday night into Saturday night across the southern
Interior with over 2 inches of rain falling over a broad areas
south of Fairbanks. Some rises have been noted on the Chena,
Salcha and Goodpaster rivers and it will be a day or so before
water from this event filters through the system. The Koyukuk
River continues to fall around Bettles, but continues to run high
downstream of Allakaket. The water is expected to remain high near
Huslia for much or this week. High water on the river has caused
the water table to rise and as a result, Mingogut Lake is rising.
Not much news from the Arctic rivers, which is good, but breakup
continues so there can be surges in the rivers as runoff moves
into the drainages.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JUN 19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

AKZ219>226-030400-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
416 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...Thunderstorms Producing Hail in the Eastern Interior...

Isolated thunderstorms are now occuring across Interior of Alaska.
Some of these thunderstorms are producing half inch hail, frequent
lightning, winds gusting to 25 mph, and brief heavy downpours.

At 4pm there was a line of thunderstorms stretching from Harding
Lake to Dot Lake that were moving south towards Delta Junction.
The thunderstorms will push over the Richardson Highway from
Harding Lake to Delta Junction, and the Alaska Highway from Delta
Junction to Dot Lake in the next 15 minutes. People in these
areas, including Delta Junction, should go inside on in a vehicle
to lessen the threat of being struck by lightning.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

AKZ216-040100-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Including Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, and Koyukuk
419 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...High Water Will Continue on the Koyukuk River Near Huslia...

Water levels will remain high on the Koyukuk River near Huslia for
much of the upcoming week. Water seeping from the river channel
is causing the local water table to rise. As the water table rises
local lake levels will continue to rise as well. The river is
expected to crest this evening; however, the water table may
continue to rise through Monday. The water will fall very slowly
this week.

With the elevated river levels, erosion has been reported and
this will continue until the river levels fall significantly.
Caution should be used near the river as banks can remain unstable
even after the waters receed.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
601 PM AKDT SUN JUN 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             4 SE FOX                64.90N 147.56W
06/02/2019  E0.25 INCH       FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO HEAVY RAIN. HALF INCH OF RAIN. 0.25
            INCH HAIL.

&&

JK