Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

214 
WWAK63 PAFG 210407
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
807 PM AKDT Mon May 20 2019

AKZ223-226-210515-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190521T0500Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
807 PM AKDT Mon May 20 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Winds are decreasing, RH is rising, and Red Flag conditions have ended.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
841 AM AKDT Mon May 20 2019

DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...High pressure remains over the Arctic with the Thermal
Trough set up across the Interior as low pressure remains over
most of mainland Alaska. Will continue to see thunderstorms and
showers develop in the afternoon and evening in the Central and
Eastern Interior. Mainly showers in the Western Interior and West
Coast with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. The Arctic will
continue to be covered by low stratus clouds and foggy conditions
with some flurries, or sprinkles, and persistent northeast to east
winds.

Models...The 20/00Z solutions initialized well against the 20/06Z
surface analysis. There is good agreement in the solutions
through about 90 hours before they diverge which is much improved
from just a week or so ago. Expect there will still be changes as
time progresses. Solutions show Cape Values in excess of 300 J/kg
today in the Upper Koyukuk extending southwest to the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley, and tomorrow in the Upper Koyukuk extending
south to the Fortymile Country. Lifted Indicies around -3 in the
same locations. Will lean toward the GFS and NAM for precipitation
and use a blend for the winds today.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...560 dam high is 400 nm north of MacKenzie
Bay and it will drift south into the Northwest Territories Tuesday
morning as it merges with a 566 dam high. Ridging will remain
over the Beaufort Sea with some weak ridging pushing west over the
Arctic Coast and Northern Arctic. A 536 dam low moving over
Prince William Sound this morning will move to the Middle Yukon
tonight at 545 dam, then over Kotzebue Sound by Tuesday afternoon
at 548 dam, and Point Hope by Wednesday morning at 550 dam. As the
low moves to the Middle Yukon, a shortwave will extend to the
northeast. A trough will remain to the southwest of the state with
a 528 dam low over the Pribilofs that will move over Nunivak
Island by Tuesday evening as a 548 dam low move over the Gulf of
Alaska. The low over Nunivak Island will move over St Matthew
Island by Wednesday afternoon, as the low over the Gulf of Alaska
moves northeast over the Yukon Territory and dissipates, while a
low in the Northeast Pacific moves over the Shelikof Strait. A
branch of the ridge over the Northwest Territories will swing
around over the Central and Eastern Interior Tuesday night and
Wednesday. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is pushing west as +10
isotherm pushes over the Eastern Interior today and holds over the
AlCan Border through Thursday.

Surface...Thermal trough persists north of the Alaska Range with a
broad area over low pressure remaining over the state. High
pressure remains over the Arctic and Beaufort Sea with a 1024 mb
high north of Wrangel Island, and a 1036 mb high over the Northern
Beaufort Sea. Low pressure is anchored by several lows that lie in
the Northern Gulf of Alaska, over Kodiak Island, and in Bristol
Bay with trough extending west to a 997 mb low near Shemya. Weak
high pressure will build in over the Copper River Basin today,
then dissipate tonight. Little change expected except for
orientation of the troughing over the Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much change expected. Low
clouds will remain over the Arctic Coast and the Northern Plains
with areas of fog and flurries, or sprinkles. Northeast to east
winds will persist at 10 to 20 mph for most areas. The Brooks
Range will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers
east of Anaktuvuk pass as convection to the south dissipates and
drifts over the are this evening. Temperatures not changing much
through Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...An upper level low will bring
increased chances of Thunderstorms and showers to the areas as it
moves to the Middle Yukon Valley tonight, and Kotzebue Sound by
Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may contain small hail and
produce strong gusty winds as they move through. Winds will
generally be light and variable less than 10 mph otherwise. Areas
that get rainfall will have patchy fog Wednesday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly becoming mostly cloudy in
the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing mainly
north and northwest of Fairbanks today. Partly cloudy tonight.
Small hail and gusty winds possible with the thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer the next couple days as warm
air aloft moves over the area. Winds will generally be light and
variable, but look for gusty winds to 35 mph with thunderstorms.

Fire Weather...Thermal Trough remains over the state extending
from the Lower Yukon Delta to Fairbanks, then southeast over
Chicken. Slightly warmer and drier in the Central and Eastern
Interior with near Red Flag conditions from Tanana east and south
of the Yukon River. Relative Humidity values are trending lower
as they fall to the lower 20 percent range. Winds generally less
than 10 mph, but Eagle will have winds gusting near 20 mph for a
while this morning, and locally winds may gust to around 20 mph at
times during the day near the Alaska Range as Thermal Trough
deepens during the day, and high pressure builds in the Copper
River Basin today before it weakens tonight.

Hydrology...Koyukuk River levels running high downstream of
Bettles as breakup continues will need to check with Allakaket
and Hughes this morning. Porcupine river also running high, and a
Flood Advisory remains in effect. Yukon River also continues to
breakup with reports of fluctuating water levels yesterday near
Beaver, most likely due to minor ice damming as the ice works
downstream as breakup continues.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...No significant changes as
ridging aloft continues to push west over the eastern half of the
state and troughing aloft continues to the west and southwest of
the state. Thermal trough will remain with generally isolated
thunderstorms and showers developing during the afternoons and
evenings. High temperatures in the 70s for much of the interior
with lows in the 40s. No significant winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

SDB MAY 19