Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

794 
WWAK63 PAFG 160052
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
452 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2019

AKZ222-160500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190516T0500Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
452 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fairbanks and vicinity.

* TIMING...Will continue into the early evening with conditions
  improving as temperatures fall and winds diminish. 

* WINDS...Northeast to east 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...68 to 75.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

450 
WWAK63 PAFG 160511
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
911 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2019

AKZ222-160615-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190516T0500Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
911 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
439 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The main issues over the next few days will be the warm and dry
conditions over the Central and Eastern Interior as well as
increasing thunderstorm chances across the Interior. On
Wednesday, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon along and south of a line from Galena to Fairbanks to
Northway. An shortwave moving in from the east on Thursday will
bring increased chances for thunderstorms across the Interior.

The 00z model suite verified well against the 06z surface
analysis. The models are generally in good agreement on the
overall synoptic scale pattern through early next week. The model
spread for localized features begins to increase on Saturday and
continues into the medium range.

Central and Eastern Interior:
On Wednesday, a thermal trough stretching from Galena to Fairbanks
and to Northway will be the delineation for isolated
thunderstorms. South of this line isolated thunderstorms are
expected to form in the afternoon and evening hours. An easterly
wave will move in on Thursday which will enhance the thermal
trough across the aforementioned areas. Additional upper level
support from the wave and SBCAPE values reaching 200-400 j/kg in
the afternoon will help increase thunderstorm coverage under the
trough area for Thursday mainly along and south of line from
Galena to Fairbanks and to Eagle. While freezing levels will be
between 6.5-7kft, a relatively dry boundary layer with dewpoint
depressions approaching 20 to 30 degrees may allow enough
evaporational cooling in downdrafts for small hail to reach the
surface in stronger storms. Gusty winds in these stronger storms
are possible as well. The easterly wave will move into the Western
Interior on Friday, and subsequently, the thermal trough is
expected to weaken. Instability aloft will remain present,
however, and that will support shower and isolated thunderstorm
development again on Friday.

The enhancement of the thermal trough on Thursday will increase
the pressure gradient over Central and Eastern Interior. Northeast
winds around 15 to 25 mph should develop across much of the area
on Thursday. Winds will diminish late Thursday evening into Friday
morning as the thermal trough weakens.

West Coast and Western Interior:
An upper level low centered near the Y-K delta will continue to
head south into the Bristol Bay through the end of the workweek. A
ridge of high pressure will build in as the low exits and bring
warmer and drier conditions to area by Thursday. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop under thermal trough in an area from
Galena to Anvik and points east on Wednesday and especially
Thursday as an easterly wave approaches the area. The easterly
wave will continue pushing west on Friday and this will elevate
chances for showers across the west coast and again in the western
Interior for Friday.

A tightening pressure gradient across the Bering Sea will form
Wednesday evening through Friday evening. This will allow north
winds 20 to 30 mph to develop through the Bering Strait late
Wednesday night through Friday morning.

North Slope:
The main issue over the next few days will be the increasing wind
speeds across coastal portions of the North Slope. A surface
trough on the north side of Brooks Range will deepen and increase
the pressure gradient across the Beaufort Sea coast and eventually
all the way to Utqiagvik. East winds 20 to 30 mph will develop
over Barter Island today, and the stronger winds will spread along
all of the Beaufort Sea coast by Thursday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph
are possible from Point Thompson to Barter Island Thursday
afternoon through Friday evening. East winds 20 to 30 mph will
spread to Utqiagvik Thursday evening and continue through Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions are expected across much of the Interior
today. Most places will reach the 60s to mid 70s. Minimum RH
values will fall to the lower 20s and upper teens east of a Tanana
to Stevens Village line. Forecast temperature values do not
exceed value of 75 degrees or higher for Red Flag Criteria, but
will be close in zones 222 and 223. A thermal trough deepening
over the Interior will help produce gusty winds during the
afternoon hours today and Thursday.

The thermal trough will trigger isolated thunderstorms along and
south of a line from Galena to Fairbanks to Northway line today.
An easterly wave will bring increased chances for thunderstorms on
Thursday mainly along and south a line from Galena to Fairbanks
and to Eagle. We went ahead and added LAL of 3 for areas south and
east of a line from Anvik to Fairbanks and to Eagle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Increasing temperatures and melting levels will continue the melt
out through the week. Even on the North Slope, conditions will be
warm enough for melt out. River levels should rise during the
week, but no flooding is expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

THR MAY 19