Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

334 
WWAK63 PAFG 071136
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
336 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2019


AKZ223-080500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0002.190507T1700Z-190508T0500Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
336 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Delta Junction vicinity south to Isabel Pass.

* TIMING...Gusty south winds will develop this morning and will
  persist into early Wednesday morning. Relative humidity will
  drop into the low to mid 20s this afternoon and then recover
  into the 50 to 60 percent range late this evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...43 to 65.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ226-080500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0002.190507T1700Z-190508T0500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
336 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...Isabel Pass north of Black Rapids.

* TIMING...Gusty south winds will develop this morning and will
  persist into early Wednesday morning. Relative humidity will
  drop into the low to mid 20s this afternoon and then recover
  into the 50 to 60 percent range late this evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...30 to 58.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

904 
WWAK63 PAFG 072145
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
145 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2019

AKZ223-080500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190508T0500Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
145 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Delta Junction vicinity south to Isabel Pass.

* TIMING...Gusty south winds will persist into early Wednesday 
  morning. Relative humidity will drop into the low to mid 20s this 
  afternoon and then recover into the 50 to 60 percent range late this 
  evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 65.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ226-080500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190508T0500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
145 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...Isabel Pass north of Black Rapids.

* TIMING...Gusty south winds will persist into early Wednesday
  morning. Relative humidity will drop into the low to mid 20s 
  this afternoon and then recover into the 50 to 60 percent range 
  late this evening.

* WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 61.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
639 AM AKDT Mon May 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Synopsis...Main forecast focus remains on a strong low moving
north across the eastern Aleutians Tuesday and along the western
Y-K Delta Tuesday night and Wednesday and the associated front.
This will bring increased chances for precip across the West
Coast, Western Interior Tuesday and much of Northern Alaska
Wednesday. Ahead of this system, warmer temperatures are expected
today and Tuesday, especially across the Interior. Strong
southerly winds in the Alaska Range are expected to develop
Tuesday. The combination of the strong winds, combined with warmer
and drier conditions will lead to fire weather concerns Tuesday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, long wave trough over the Bering Sea extending
into the northwest Pacific will deepen through Monday as the axis
moves across the central Aleutians. The trough remains in place
through the week, with shortwaves rotating northward through the
flow along the West Coast. Long wave ridge over the northeast
Pacific extends north to southern Alaska, building over eastern
Alaska and western Canada through the week. A low over Arctic
Village today lifts northeast to be over Mackenzie Bay Tuesday
morning, continuing northeast towards Banks Island by Wednesday
morning.

Surface...

A 1030 mb high centered 500 nm north of Utqiagvik slides northwest
into the high Arctic through Tuesday night, with the axis moving
westward across the Beaufort Sea. A 1010 mb low near Richards
Island Tuesday morning lifts northeast to be a 1008 mb low 100 nm
northwest of Cape Dalhousie Tuesday afternoon, weakening to 1012
mb Wednesday morning as it lifts north along the coast of Banks
Island.

A 989 mb low 50 nm north of Nikolski this morning will remain
fairly stationary through the day. This low will be absorbed
Tuesday by a strong low quickly moving north across the eastern
Aleutians Tuesday morning to be a 981 mb low 25 nm north of
Perryville. The low will weaken as it moves northwest across
Bristol Bay to be a 986 mb low 50 nm northwest of Goodnews Bay
Tuesday afternoon, a 992 mb low near Scammon Bay Wednesday
morning, and a 1003 mb low as it approaches St Lawrence Island
Wednesday night.

Models...00Z model suite initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS
and the 00Z and 06Z surface obs. Models are in general agreement
through Tuesday, handling the major features adequately.
Differences arise by Tuesday afternoon in the timing, placement,
and strength of the upper low currently over Arctic Village, and
the surface reflection. Differences become apparent by Tuesday
night, both aloft and at the surface, with the low moving across
the Aleutians. The GFS remains deepest with the low, while the
ECMWF is the weakest, with the NAM and Canadian in between. The
GFS takes the low right along the western coast of the Y-K Delta
with the Canadian and ECMWF following suite, while the NAM takes
the low inland and then across western Norton Sound. Favored the
GFS solution given the current set up with deepening long wave
trough, which would allow for the development of stronger surface
lows.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Stratus and patchy fog persist
today. High temperatures largely in the 20s today, with
temperatures approaching the lower 30s west of Point Lay.
Temperatures slowly warm through the week, with the 32F line
pushing further north each day. As high pressure slides west
across the high Arctic, easterly to northeast winds will prevail.
Gradient begins to tighten west of Point Lay this morning, with
stronger winds developing from Point Lay west; 30 to 40 mph winds
possible at Cape Lisburne today through Wednesday. An upper level
low moving north across the far eastern Brooks Range today will
bring precipitation from Nuiqsut east Monday and Monday night,
with the highest chances occurring from Kaktovik east.
Precipitation will come to an end Tuesday morning as the low
departs to the northeast. A front moving north across the Brooks
Range Wednesday will bring the next chance at precip, with 1 to 3
inches of snow possible in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior: Showers over the Yukon Delta this
morning will spread northward towards the Seward Peninsula this
afternoon. The low moving north along the West Coast and the
associated front will bring another round of showers Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds increase from the Bering Strait south Tuesday and
Wednesday with strongest winds of 25 to 35 mph Tuesday night and
Wednesday across the Y-K Delta and the Lower Yukon Delta and to 40
mph on St Lawrence Island and along the Bering Strait Coast.
Temperatures warming slightly through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: Showers will linger across the
Alaska Range and eastern Interior today, with 1 to 3 inches of
snow possible along the Steese Highway near Circle and Central.
Southerly gap winds have developed in the Alaska Range passes and
are expected to increase during the day Tuesday. The strongest
winds are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon. Southerly gap
winds will approach wind advisory level Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night for zones 225 and zone 226. Stronger winds are
expected to extend north to Delta Junction and a wind advisory may
be needed for zone 223 as well. Temperatures warm today into the
50s and into the mid 60s Tuesday. Lower RH values expected
Tuesday. The warmer temperatures combined with falling RH values
and strong southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range will lead to
fire weather concerns Tuesday. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected Wednesday as a cold front pushes across the region,
bringing a cooler and moister airmass, as well as increased precip
chances.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect high temperatures in the 50s today with RH
values of 25-35%. Slight instability over the Chicken area brings
a very slight chance of a thunderstorm to that area this
afternoon. Temperatures Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the
lower to mid 60s, and RH 20-30%. Southerly gap winds are ongoing
and will remain moderate through today with the winds increasing
during the day Tuesday, peaking Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The warm and dry conditions combined with the winds will cause
near Red Flag conditions along the Richardson Highway from
Donnelly Dome to Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon. A weather
front moving east across the Interior Wednesday will bring wetting
rain to much of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warming temperatures this week should speed up snow
melt and cause break up to become more active by the middle of the
week. All ice south of the Brooks Range is rotting and not safe to
travel across.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAY 19