Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
634 AM AKDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Fire Weather Watches for Thursday and Friday remain in
effect, and Smoke Advisory continues to much of the Interior into
the evening. Conditions will be improving as a weather front moves
into the interior from the north. Winds will be switching around
to southwest to northwest today and with better mixing the smoke
will be lifting and dispersing better. Thunderstorms and showers
also developing in the Lower Yukon Delta today, then spreading
north Thursday and Friday. It remains comfortably warm and dry on
the Northwest Arctic Coast and in the Western Brooks Range.
Patchy stratus and fog east of Wainwright along the coast again
this morning will see some improvement during the day, but expect
the dense fog to return by late evening.

Models...Good run to run continuity with the 10/12Z solutions.
Smoke models keep the smoke over the interior, but start thinning
it as the winds swing around and the front moves into the
interior. Convective indicies are marginal today, better Thursday
and Friday. Going to lean toward the NAM for precipitation, and
winds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging is finally breaking down, well moving
off as the 580 dam closed high that was over the Bering Strait is
slowly move northwest over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 575 dam high
developing over Anvik with ridging extend northwest over Siberia,
and southeast over Prince William Sound by Thursday morning. The
ridge continues to be squeezed with a 565 dam high developing over
Tanana by Saturday morning, but by Saturday afternoon a 568 dam
high will develop over Yakutat and ridging will extend northwest
over the Seward Peninsula. A 543 dam low is moving southeast over
the Beaufort Sea with a weak shortwave associated with it moving
over the northeast mainland. The low will continue to move
southeast with a stronger shortwave moving over the Eastern Arctic
Coast by Thursday morning with a 563 dam low developing over the
Western Brooks Range and moving over Huslia by Friday morning. The
low will dissipate Friday evening with ridging building northwest
over the state. The elongated trough that was over the Aleutians
has moved over the Southern Bering Sea today and the trough will
rotate north over Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. At 850
hpa...Temperatures will warm a couple more degrees today over the
Southern Interior, then cooling through the weekend, but generally
remaining above 10C.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure over the state and a weak
weather front has moved southeast into the Interior and is
merging with the Thermal trough this morning. The front lies from
the Eastern Beaufort Sea south of Old Crow to Fort Yukon, then
southwest over Anvik. High pressure over the Arctic will
strengthen as a 1020 mb high moves to 100 nm of Point Barrow
tonight. A low developing along the front near Arctic Village will
move southeast over Dawson YT with the front lying from Eagle to
Fairbanks to Ruby to Anvik this morning then stalling through
Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the Eastern Bering Sea
tonight, then weakens. A benign weather pattern will develop over
the state for the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Patchy stratus and fog along the
coast again this morning and over the Plains this morning. Expect
it to burn off, but a bit later than yesterday. GOES IFR
Probability at 10/14Z indicates IFR conditions along the Eastern
Arctic coast and just inland. Dense fog being reported and
confirms the imagery. Visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less at
times this morning with improving ceilings and visibilities by
late morning. Winds northeast to east 5 to 20 mph today. High
temperatures in the 60s from Wainwright west, and in the 40s to
the east. Temperatures will be cooling into the 30s and 40s for
most areas by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Basically the same as yesterday,
smokey, hot, and dry, but with increased chance of thunderstorms
or showers. Satellite imagery shows smoke has swirled around over
the Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, and over the Arctic. Visibility
was reported down to 4 miles in smoke at Kivalina last evening.
Webcams are showing a smokey haze in most areas with the lowest
visibilities in the Lower Yukon Delta and Kuskokwim Valley. Winds
light and variable less than 10 mph this morning becoming
southwest 5 to 15 mph this afternoon.

Central and Eastern Interior...Smokey, Hot, and dry, but
conditions will be improving a bit the next couple days as a
weather front moves into the area and winds swing around from the
southwest to northwest. The front will also bring some isolated
thunderstorms and showers to the area. High temperatures in the
upper 70s and 80s with lows falling into the 50s and maybe even
the upper 40s north of the Yukon River.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Fire Weather...Fire Weather Watches remain in effect. Isolated
thunderstorms developing this afternoon and hot and dry conditions
continue. Widespread Wetting Rains are NOT expected as
precipitation will be showery. A weather front moving south will
interact with the thermal trough over the Interior. The front will
lie from Eagle to Fairbanks to Ruby to Anvik this afternoon, and
stalls in the area through Thursday. Winds will remain generally
light, less than 10 mph, but will be from the southwest to
northwest which should help clear some of the smoke. Gusty winds
to 20 mph developing along the Eastern Brooks Range today. The
thermal belt will be between 500 and 1200 feet tonight with no
thermal belt expected Thursday night. Fair to poor overnight
relative humidity recovery.

&&

.Hydrology...None. Glacially fed rivers slowly rising and will
remain high. Melting level above 10000 feet through Thursday, then
falling through the weekend.

&&

.Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models indicate ridging
moving back over the Interior with troughing to the south. Expect
more clouds and increased chances of thunderstorms and showers.
Temperatures more seasonal as they cool a bit. area by the
weekend with another round of warm and dry conditions. The
seasonal change to our rainy season is not showing up in the
models yet.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

SDB JUL 19