High Wind Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

281 
WWAK73 PAFG 292320
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

AKZ226-300600-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190930T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
320 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Through passes, including the Richardson Highway.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ224-300600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190930T1200Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, 
Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
320 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Along the Alaska Highway west of Tok.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-300600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190930T0600Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
320 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near passes.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

447 
WWAK73 PAFG 300614
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1014 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

AKZ226-300715-
/O.EXP.PAFG.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190930T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1014 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds are now decreasing. 

$$

AKZ225-300715-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190930T0600Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
1014 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds are now decreasing.

$$

AKZ224-301200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190930T1200Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, 
Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
1014 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds gusting to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Along the Alaska Highway west of Tok.

* WHEN...until 4 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A front associated with a low moving north along the west coast of
Alaska will bring precipitation (mostly rain) to much of the west
coast and the Interior tonight into Sunday. This system will also
bring strong winds to the Alaska Range. This system will be our
main forecast challenge in the short term.

The models initialize well and are in generally good agreement
with the overall synoptic scale pattern out through early Sunday.
After Sunday morning, the models start to diverge on the exact
timing of the surface surface low that is expected to move north
along the west coast and then will track east along the Arctic
Coast. The NAM move the low to near Utqiagvik much quicker than
the other models and stalls it there longer. The scenario
depicted by the NAM would bring higher water levels and a more
prolonged period of elevated surf to the Chukchi Sea Coast than
the other models. Given that the NAM is currently the outlier, we
opted to lean more to the GFS solution for the moment.

Central and Eastern Interior: A front will bring spread
precipitation into the Interior tonight and Sunday. Snow levels
will rise to the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range as the precipitation
moves in, so for most locations this will primarily a rain event.
In areas north of the Yukon River the precipitation will likely
start off as snow, but will transition to rain. North of Coldfoot,
the snow will be the dominant precipitation type with some spots
seeing an inch or so of accumulation.  Areas from Fairbanks west
will likely see over a half of an inch of rainfall with this
system, with some spots seeing up to an inch. Precipitation with
this system will taper off early Monday for areas from Fairbanks
west, while some rainfall will linger into Monday afternoon east
of Fairbanks. The pressure gradient will tighten up across the
Alaska Range this evening as a surface low moves north along the
west coast As the pressure gradient tightens up strong, southerly
gap winds will develop in the Alaska Range. Wind gusts near passes
are expected to be in the 50 to 60 mph range. Wind advisories
have been posted for zones 225 and 226 beginning this evening and
continuing through Sunday evening in anticipation of the gap
winds. In addition, the setup aloft is favorable for stronger
southwesterly winds along the Alaska Highway from just west of
Tok to Dot Lake. We opted to issue a Wind Advisory for zone 224
for gusts up to 40 mph in this area. A system in the Gulf of
Alaska will spread precipitation into the Interior from the
southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Most of the precipitation will
be confined to areas southeast of a line from Fort Yukon to Lake
Minchumina. Snow levels are expected to fall below 1,000 feet
during this event.

West Coast and Western Interior: An area of low pressure tracking
to the north along the west coast will spread rainfall over the
area tonight. By the time the system moves out of the area on
Sunday evening, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected with
this system. Gusty westerly winds are expected around the back
side of the low Monday evening. This will primarily affect Norton
Sound, where gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible (primarily south
of Koyuk). Some showers will linger across the area on Monday. A
ridge will build over the area on Tuesday will limit the chances
for precipitation. A front will spread precipitation to the west
coast on Wednesday, with showers lingering into Thursday. There
are more substantial chances for precipitation on Friday as a low
moves from the Bering Sea, over the Yukon Delta and up the Yukon
Valley. This system will bring gusty westerly winds to the coast,
although there is disagreement on the exact placement and timing
of the strongest winds at the moment.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with southerly winds over
most areas continuing into tonight will keep coastal fog offshore.
Winds will shift to the east-southeast over much of the area
tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves north and east along
the Chukchi Sea coast. Southerly gap winds gusting to 45 mph will
also develop Saturday night through eastern Brooks Range passes
and will impact the Dalton Highway north of Atigun Pass. The
approaching low will deepen just off the coast of Utqiagvik on
Sunday night and sweep east on Monday. This will spread rainfall
across the area Sunday into Monday, mixing with snow on the
backside of the low as cooler air sweeps in some spots in the
Brooks Range may see an inch or so of accumulation. Strong onshore
winds of 25 to 45 mph are likely to areas from Wainwright
eastward on Monday. There is still some uncertainty with the track
of this low at the moment, with the NAM keeping the low in place
near Utqiagvik while the other operational models move the low to
the east quicker. We opted to go more for the GFS solution for
the track of the low; however, we will have to continue to monitor
this area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...An area of low pressure
moving east along the Arctic Coast will bring northwesterly winds
of 20 to 30 mph to the Chukchi Sea Coast on Monday. These winds
will cause elevated sea levels and increased wave action. The sea
level is expected increase one to two feet above the normal high
tide line from Utqiagvik west during the day on Monday. There is
still a lot of spread with the models on the exact track and
timing of the low, the the GFS and the ECMWF moving the low much
quicker eastward than the NAM. A low that will move reach the
Yukon west coast of Alaska on Friday has the potential to bring
elevated water levels and surf to parts of the west coast; however,
at the moment the exact details are uncertain at the moment.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams are running well below bankfull across the
forecast area. The 0.5 to 1.50 inches of rain forecast this
weekend in portions of the Interior will result in rises on some
drainages, but flooding is not expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SEP 19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

AKZ212-292100-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
and Shaktoolik
925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Elevated Surf at Shaktoolik and Unalakleet Sunday...

Surf is expected to rise above normal Sunday afternoon at
Shaktoolik and Unalakleet, and to remain elevated through early
Monday morning. Surf will rise to the top of the beach and cause
minor beach erosion, but no flooding is expected.

A storm now over Bristol Bay is expected to move over Norton
Sound on Sunday and then deepen. This storm is expected to cause
southwest winds of 20 to 30 kt over Eastern Norton Sound between
Sunday afternoon and early Monday. These winds will only be
blowing over a 80 mile fetch of water so this will only cause sea
level to rise about 2 ft above normal, and cause waves to 8 feet,
which will cause the elevated surf. The winds and waves will
decrease Monday morning.

AKZ207-209-210-292100-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
925 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Elevated Surf Sunday Night through Monday...

Surf is expected to rise above normal about midnight Sunday night
at Shishmaref, Deering and Kotzebue, and to remain elevated
through about noon Monday. Surf will rise to the top of the beach
and cause minor beach erosion, but no flooding is expected.

A storm now over Bristol Bay is expected to move over Norton
Sound on Sunday and deepen, then move north of Kotzebue late
Sunday night. This storm is expected to cause northwest winds of
20 to 25 kt over the southern Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound between
midnight Sunday night and noon Monday. These winds will only be
blowing over a 100 mile fetch of water so this will only cause sea
level to rise about 2 ft above normal, and cause waves to 6 feet,
which will cause the elevated surf. The winds and waves will
decrease Monday afternoon.

JB