High Wind Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

139 
WWAK71 PAFG 202006
NPWNSB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1206 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

AKZ203-210200-
/O.EXB.PAFG.HW.W.0005.190720T2006Z-190721T0200Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1206 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING..

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM AKDT this evening. 

* WINDS...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue this afternoon. Winds will decrease
  this evening.
 
* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown away.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

AKZ204-210200-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0005.190720T2100Z-190721T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1206 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase early this afternoon, with the 
  strongest winds occurring late this afternoon and this evening.
  

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown away.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

675 
WWAK71 PAFG 210100
NPWNSB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
500 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

AKZ203-210200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190721T0200Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
500 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

Winds will continue to steadily drop off over the next few 
hours.

$$

AKZ204-210800-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190721T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
500 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...West winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds occurring now and are expected to
  diminish later this evening.

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown away.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

424 
WWAK71 PAFG 210412
NPWNSB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
812 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

AKZ204-210515-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190721T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
812 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move into the North Slope and
deepen during the day on Saturday. This will bring wind gusts up
to 40 mph through the Brooks Range passes and winds gusts in
excess of 50 mph Saturday afternoon and evening east of Deadhorse.
Rainfall amounts up to 1" are possible across the western North
Slope by Saturday evening.

Elevated surf is possible for southwest facing shorelines on St.
Lawrence Island, Diomede, and Chukchi Sea coast south of Point
Hope on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between an area
low pressure over Siberia and high pressure to the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
North Slope and Brooks Range:
Strong cyclogenisis is expected to occur over the North Slope on
Saturday as shortwave trough and associated 500mb vort max
interact with baroclinic zone over the area. There are some
discrepancies between the placement of the surface low on
Saturday, but guidance generally indicates that the surface low
will deepen to 994-998mb over the Beaufort Sea by Saturday
evening. This will create southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph through the Brooks Range passes Saturday morning into
the afternoon hours. As the low center moves north, expect west
winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph mainly east of
Deadhorse for Saturday afternoon and the evening. Given the
probability of winds reaching 60 mph across Barter Island, we’ve
decided to issue a High Wind Watch for this area for Sat.
afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals across the western North
Slope will reach 0.5-1.0” by Saturday evening.

Central and Eastern Interior:
Conditions will remain fairly quiet over the weekend as most major
systems will remain north and west of the area. Lee-side troughing
on the southeast side of the Brooks Range combined with CAPE
values peaking up to 200 J/kg this evening will bring a chance for
shower and isolated thunderstorms to the southern foothills of the
Brooks Range mainly along and east of the Dalton Highway. A
thermal trough extending from a Fort Yukon to Delta Junction line
east into Yukon territory with cape values peaking around 300 J/kg
will also bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening for these portions of the eastern Interior.

As a weather front approaches the central Interior on Saturday,
winds are expected to increase ahead of it during the afternoon
hours. Southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph are expected during the
day. Gusts up to 25 mph are expected across the Yukon Flats. With
ongoing wildfires, this could bring additional smoke to
communities in the Yukon Flats. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon mainly east of a
Tok to Chicken line.

West Coast and Western Interior:
A weather front moving into the West Coast will bring chances for
more organized rainfall Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be
heaviest north of a Kotzebue to Ambler line with in excess of
0.25” by Saturday evening. Amounts will generally be less than
0.10” elsewhere.

On Sunday, an elongated southwesterly wind fetch will develop over
the Bering Sea from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait
up to the Chukchi Sea coast. Winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph
across this area during the day. Latest guidance suggests that
this will lead to elevated surf for southwest facing shorelines
such as Gambell, Diomede, and Kivalina. At this time, coast
flooding is not anticipated.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front that passed last night has decreased thunderstorm
potential throughout most of our forecast area. Isolated
thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon in the Interior
east of Fairbanks. The highest possibility for convection is
along the Eastern Alaska Range and in the Fortymile Country.

A cold front that continues to pass through the Interior has cloud
cover and southwesterly winds behind it, which will bring cooler
temperatures for most of the Interior with an increase in RH
values. The cooling trend will continue through Sunday. The
airmass behind the front will be more stable, limiting chances for
thunderstorm development. The low moving through the Interior
will also increase wind speeds today, bringing gusty west to
southwesterly winds, especially to areas north of the Yukon River
today. Winds should taper tomorrow into Sunday, depending on location.

The area of most concern, the Yukon Flats, will also see some
moderating temperatures and relative humidities. However,conditions
will remain somewhat dry as there is not forecast to be any wetting
rains with the passage of this system. On the North Slope, two
fronts moving through the region will decrease temperatures,
increase RH and produce rainshowers. The West Coast will be under
the influence of onshore flow from the Bering Sea which will
moderate temperatures and RH values there as well.

BJB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
0.25 to 1.0 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the
North Slope and the Brooks Range on Saturday as a series of
systems move through the area. This will cause some minor rises in
rivers that drain the Brooks Range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

JUL 19