High Wind Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

042 
WWAK73 PAFG 160842
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1242 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

AKZ226-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0003.190316T2100Z-190318T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1242 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this afternoon, and become strong 
  late this evening. Winds will remain strong through Sunday 
  afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown about by the wind.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

AKZ223-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190317T2000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1242 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...near Delta Junction.

* WINDS...Southeast gusting to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this afternoon, and become strong 
  late this evening. Winds will remain strong through Sunday 
  morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ225-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
1242 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this morning, and become strong 
  this afternoon. Winds will remain strong through Sunday 
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

525 
WWAK73 PAFG 162246
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

AKZ226-171500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
246 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this afternoon, and become strong
  late this evening. Winds will remain strong through Sunday
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

AKZ223-171500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
246 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATION...near Delta Junction.

* WINDS...Southeast gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong through Sunday evening.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ225-171500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
246 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong through Sunday evening.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

808 
WWAK73 PAFG 171135
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

AKZ226-180200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
/O.EXA.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until midnight AKDT tonight. The
High Wind Warning has been cancelled. 


* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong through this evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ223-180200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...near Delta Junction.

* WINDS...Southeast gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong through this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ225-180200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190318T0800Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
335 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Through Passes.

* WINDS...South gusting to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong through this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
502 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
Warm south flow aloft will continue through early next week, and
then weaken slowly next week. This will keep the Eastern Interior
very warm and dry with moderate chinook winds through Sun, with a
brief chance of rain and snow Sun night and Mon. The West Coast
and Western Interior will see 4-8 inches of snow through the
weekend, with rain possible and a slight chance of freezing rain
in the Western Interior tonight through Sun, and brief near
blizzard conditions possible along the West Coast on Sun. The
Arctic Coast will see increasing east winds and reduced visibility
in blowing snow Sat, but expect visibility to remain 1NM or
better due to lack of new snow. A storm moving across the North
Slope Sun night and Mon could bring low visibility in snow and
blowing snow as it moves from west to east across the Slope Sun
night and Mon.

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft... Long wave trough consisting of a high amplitude trough
over the Bering Sea and the NW Pacific east into the Western Gulf
of AK, with a ridge over Western Canada, will persist through Mon,
and then have the ridge build slightly from the middle to the end
of next week. This will keep the warm southerly flow pattern
going over Northern Alaska through Mon, then turn more SW and
weaken slightly during the middle and end of next week.

A series of strong short waves will rotate north out of the Gulf
of Alaska and move north over the West Coast of Alaska through the
weekend and into early next week. There may be a lull in in short
waves during the middle and end of next week as the ridge builds
slowly.

Surface...
A 993 mb low 150 NM south of Gambell will persist in place
through Sat, then dissipate. this is causing snow showers over st
Lawrence Island that will persist into Sat.

A 1028 mb high 300 NM north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
persist through Sun. A 998 mb low near Point Hope will move west
tonight. A weather front extending from this low east across the
North Slope of Alaska will strengthen Sat as a second front moves
north and merges with it. These features are causing east winds
10-20 kt across the Arctic Coast of Alaska that will increase to
20-30kt Sat as the front strengthens. This will cause blowing
snow, with visibility falling to 1/2 mile or less from Sat
morning through Sat evening. Unsure how much new snow there is to
blow around, but recent winds of similar strength did cause 1/2
mile vsby.

An Arctic Cold front extending from the above mentioned low near
Point Hope to Selawik to Anvik will remain quasi-stationary
tonight. There are areas of light snow along this front that will
taper off this evening.

A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska will move to the Yukon Delta
as 984 mb low by 6pm Sat, and to Point Hope as a 985 mb low by 4pm
Sun, and to 300 NM northwest of Point Hope by 3pm Mon. This
feature will push moisture NW to over run the Arctic front and
push the Arctic front west over the West Coast of Alaska by Sat
PM, with the Arctic Front moving back east south of the low on Sat
Night and Sun. This will cause 4-7 inches of snow along the West
Coast and far Western Interior Sat through Sun. The heaviest snow
will be along the Nulato Hills and along the south slopes of the
Western Brooks Range. Issues Winter Weather Advisories for this.
Will need to examine zones 208 and 207 for Sat night and Sun for
possible advisory issues as well. East of the low center warm air
will push north over the Western Interior, causing snow to mix
with or change to rain Sat PM. Since most of the precip will be
where in colder areas west of the front, expect rain amounts to be
light and to remain east of the Nulato Hills.

This low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska will cause strong
chinook winds to develop across the Alaska Range tonight, and
continue through Sun. This will keep the SE Interior very warm
through Sun, with highs in the 30s and 40s. May approach 50 this
weekend near the Alaska Range.

East winds will also develop over Hills of the Northern Interior
tonight.

Will also see strong south winds develop across the Brooks Range
tonight and persist into Sun causing blowing snow.

The arctic front will move east to Point Lay to McGrath by 4pm
Sun, then move east to Demarcation Point to Denali by 4pm Mon.
This will cause more blowing snow over the North Slope and push
snow east to the central and northern Interior on Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft models initialize well and show similar solutions through
Sun. Start to see differences Sun night and Mon on handling of low
center and front moving east across the North Slope, with the NAM
being slower in movement than the GFS and ECMF. Favor the faster
GFS solution on Mon. Precipitation fields are similar, but the
NAM has a narrower areal coverage than the GFS and ECMF tonight
through Sun. Favor the broader areal coverage of the GFS based on
the warm and moist south flow pushing into the existing Arctic
Front over the Western Interior and West Coast tonight through
Sun.

At the surface at 15Z, all models verify about 5 mb too weak on
the ridge of high pressure that lies 300 NM north of the Arctic
Coast. Models verify well on all the low centers. Due to the high
being stronger than any models show, and the expectation that it
will remain stronger into Sat, expect winds along the Arctic Coast
to be several kt stronger than models indicate. For this reason
will use NAM winds through Sat night along the Arctic Coast, which
are stronger than the GFS and ECMF in that location.

The long wave pattern consisting of a deep trough over the Bering
and NW Pacific with a ridge over Western Canada looks to remain in
in place through Tue. From Wed through next weekend there is some
variation between models on retrograding the ridge over Alaska
with the GFS building the ridge further west over AK than the ECMF
and Canadian. At this point the ECMF and most of its ensemble
members looks more consistent with yesterdays run, and after
consultation with the WPC we will follow the ECMF solution next
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Will see SW winds 25 kt over Norton Sound Sun, but since they only
last about 6 hr do not expect any elevated sea levels, but may
cause slightly elevated surf and push any ice remnants onto
Norton Sound beaches on Sun. Kotzebue Sound and the Southern
Chukchi Sea will see S-SW winds 25 kt for about 6 hrs Sun PM, and
do not expect elevated sea levels but again ice may push onto
beaches with slightly elevated surf in the areas with open water.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ213-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB MAR 19