High Wind Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

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WWAK71 PAFG 181254
NPWNSB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

AKZ204-181400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-191218T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
354 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Active on the Arctic Coast with strong gusty winds and
blowing snow impacting visibility and travel in the area. Gusty
winds also developing in the Eastern Brooks Range may impact
travel along the Dalton Highway north of Gobblers Knob. Generally
quiet for the remainder of the Interior and the West Coast.
Temperatures will be a big battle again today as any sustained
winds will impact them.

Models...17/00Z solutions are in pretty good agreement this
morning. They do diverge around the 72 hour point, but mainly in
the details, not in the big picture. Surface solutions are also in
good agreement, the big question will be how strong the gradient
is across the state and whether or not those winds make it to the
surface to mix out the colder air today and tonight. High pressure
settling in over the Interior Wednesday night will bring light
winds and a significant drop in temperatures. MOS guidance has
been poor at best of late, so will not be making any significant
changes to the forecast temperature database. Will make some minor
local changes to match the current observations and trends. All
solutions show very little precipitation across the state through
the weekend.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing aloft extends from northeast to
southwest over the state today from a 489 dam low over Nunavut
Canada, to a 523 dam low over Bettles, to a 508 dam low 100 nm
south of Dutch Harbor. A 531 dam high is over the Northwest Arctic
Coast, with a 526 dam high over Delta Junction. Wednesday,
troughing will persist with the low remaining over Nunavut, while
the low near Dutch Harbor will move to 300 nm south of Kodiak
City and the low over Bettles will move over Bristol Bay. A weak
col will persist over the Upper Tanana Valley extending northwest
over Fairbanks to Point Lay, then to the high. that was over the
Northwest Arctic Coast, that has moved over the Chukotsk Peninsula
at 530 dam. By Thursday morning the col over the middle of the
state will be pushed south as a wave associated with the low in
Nunavut moves south over the Brooks Range Wednesday afternoon, and
will lie over the Upper Yukon Flats to Galena. Ridging will build
north over the Central Bering Sea Wednesday and will extend north
over the Southwest Arctic by Thursday morning. A 508 dam low will
develop over the Upper Yukon Flats Thursday night and move over
the Middle Tanana Valley Friday morning as the ridging to the west
moves over the West Coast and Western Arctic. The low south of
Kodiak will continue to move east eventually dissipating in the
Northeast Pacific. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over the state have
moderated and most areas are now below 0C. The -10C isotherm is
pushing in from the northeast and lies roughly from the AlCan
Border Crossing to Fort Yukon to Coldfoot to Kaktovik. Cooler
temperatures will push southwest into the state as the trough
aloft pushes south and the -10C isotherm will move to lie from
Yakutat to Kotzebue then north. The -20C isotherm will push west
over the Eastern Brooks Range and Upper Porcupine River. Thursday
morning the 0C isotherm will be pushed southwest to lie from
Yakutat to Anvik to Shishmaref, while the -20C will push southwest
over the Upper and Middle Tanana Valley, the Upper Yukon Flats,
and with Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast.

Surface...The Interior is trapped between two systems with a 1032
mb high over the Beaufort Sea moving south, and a 973 mb low just
south of Cold Bay that is moving east. As the high moves south
and the low moves east the pressure gradient across the state
tightens and leeside troughing strengthens influencing the
strength of the winds over the Eastern Arctic Coast and in the
Upper Tanana Valley. Wednesday morning the high will be 300 nm
north of Point Barrow, while the low will be 400 nm south of
Kodiak City. A second high will break off and move over the
Northwest Territories as it builds to 1024 mb. An inverted trough
will remain over the West Coast. Thursday morning the high will be
150 nm north of Wainwright at 1024 mb, and the low will be 400 nm
south of Cordova. High pressure will over the Bering Sea will
move east and merge with the high pressure over the Northwest
Arctic Coast. The high pressure over the Northwest Territories
will move east as a 1000 mb low over the Canadian Archipelago
spins a weather front to the Eastern Arctic Coast Thursday, and
into the Interior Thursday night.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Strong gusty winds will continue
along the coast into the evening, and gusty south winds will
develop in the Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon and evening.
Stratus will continue to be a problem in the coastal areas.
Nighttime Microphysics imagery indicates stratus over the Coast
east of Point Lay. Observations are showing light snow or flurries
east of Wainwright this morning. Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for areas around Deadhorse. Temperatures will be
falling.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty quiet with offshore
flow and cooling temperatures. Some patchy stratus floating
around will bring low ceilings to a few locations for a period,
then clear out. Visibility will be impacted by patchy fog. The
next chance for measurable snowfall on the coast will be Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally clear and cold. Some
localized gusty winds in the Upper Tanana Valley, the Upper Yukon
Flats and over the summits near the Koyukuk River. Wind chill to
45 below mainly north of the Yukon and Porcupine Rivers. Locally
temperatures will vary quite a bit depending on wind. If the winds
pick up for a while the temperatures will rise, if they stay light
or calm, temperatures will remain steady or fall.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Generally partly cloudy to
clear for Interior locations and the Alaska and Brooks Ranges
through Monday. A weather front will move to the West Coast Friday
spreading showers to most of the area Friday through Sunday
morning before it moves north and spreads a few showers to the
Arctic. A strong low will move out of the Pacific to the Gulf of
Alaska Tuesday spreading snow to the Central and Eastern Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ219.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ220.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

SDB DEC 19