Gale Warning 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1252 AM AKDT Sat Aug 31 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Delightful early fall weather over the Central and Eastern
Interior with mostly clear skies, light winds and mostly dry
conditions. Winds will increase through the Alaska Range Passes
Saturday night and Sunday as a strong Bering Sea low pushes north
out of the Aleutians into Bristol Bay that will bring a round of
heavy rain and strong winds over the West Coast and Western
Interior. Strong winds will develop over the North Slope Coast to
the east of Point Barrow this afternoon and will continue through
Sunday.

Interior...Relatively dry period will continue as high pressure
builds over the Interior through the weekend. There may be an
isolated rain shower or two over the eastern Interior on Saturday,
otherwise dry conditions through Sunday. High temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s through the weekend. Chinook conditions will
develop over the weekend for the Alaska Range on Sunday. Gusts to
50 mph are possible in the channeled areas. Upper level flow will
switch more southwesterly and shortwaves will start to enhance
shower activity for the Interior on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible as well for the Eastern Interior on Monday.

North Slope...Low stratus and occasional fog will diminish today
over the North Slope and Arctic Coast. High pressure moves north
of the Arctic Coast as a strong low moves north out of the
Aleutians into Bristol Bay late Saturday night into Sunday.
Strong winds will develop this afternoon along the North Slope
Coast to the east of Point Barrow. The strongest winds are
expected to develop Saturday night into Sunday with sustained
30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible along the eastern
Arctic Coast from Alpine to Kaktovik. Temperatures along the coast
expected to remain in the lower 40s going into the weekend.

West Coast...Stratus and occasional fog and isolated showers will
diminish this morning along the West Coast as strong offshore
winds develop Saturday night as the strong surface low moves into
Bristol Bay. Precipitation will begin to spread across the Yukon
Delta again by Sunday morning. Windy conditions with rain will
persist into next week. Temperatures trending up going into the
weekend, primarily in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Models...The 31/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and verified well against the 06z surface
analysis. Models spread is minimal in the short range and
continues to be reasonable into the mid range as well as the
extended range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Southerly winds 20-25 kt for Norton Sound Tuesday into Wednesday
will become southwest and could create some high surf issues and
wave runup on the beaches on south and west facing coasts as a
deep low moves north over St Lawrence Island.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge will continue to build over the Interior, expect
temperatures to into the middle 60s by the weekend. Conditions
will also become drier as widespread minimum RH reaches into the
lower 40s and areas along the eastern Alaska Range will dip into
the lower 30s percent. Chinook flow expected to develop going into
Saturday, with increasing winds through the passes. Gusts to 50
mph possible in the Alaska Range passes Sunday afternoon through
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

CCC AUG 19