Gale Warning 72, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
149 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Synopsis...A front will continue moving east across the North
Slope and Arctic Coast this afternoon and tonight bringing light
snow. Winds have increased once again across the eastern Bering
Sea and St Lawrence Island, with stronger winds spreading north
along the Chukchi Sea Coast tonight and Saturday as the next front
moves across the region. Precip will largely be limited to St
Lawrence Island to Nome and north along the Chukchi Sea Coast
through this evening. Winds over the western Arctic Coast increase
late tonight with stronger winds spreading eastward through the
day Saturday, with snow spreading eastward as well.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a shortwave extending across the Chukotsk
Peninsula and into the eastern Bering will continue to weaken and
dampen as it moves east northeast across the Arctic Coast and
Beaufort Sea tonight and Saturday. Nearly zonal flow continues
across northern Alaska this afternoon, shifting further north to
be situated across the northern third of the state during the day
Saturday, with a few shortwaves moving through the flow.

A low southwest of Kodiak this afternoon, will move south tonight,
retrograding towards the west Saturday, moving northwestward to
near Cold Bay Sunday, and north of the Aleutians into the Bering
Monday. Meanwhile, a high over centered over Unalaska this
afternoon, will lift northeastward across southwest Alaska tonight
to be stretched across the Interior by Saturday morning,
remaining centered across the Interior through the weekend, and
sliding eastward Sunday night and Monday.

A low centered between the Kamchatka Peninsula and the far western
Aleutians this evening, will continue to weaken as it moves
northwestward Saturday, approaching the middle Kamchatka Peninsula
Coast, and weakening to an open wave by Sunday.

Surface...A 1003 mb low centered northeast of Kaktovik in the high
Arctic this afternoon will continue to move northeast and weaken
through Saturday. A front associated with low will continue to
move east across the eastern Arctic tonight.

A 1008 mb low will move off the Chukotka Coast to be 100 NM
southeast of Wrangel Island tonight and will quickly move
northeast to be a 1008 mb low located 150 NM northwest of
Wainwright Saturday morning and a 1010 mb low located 250 NM north
of Barter Island Saturday afternoon. A front associated with this
low will sweep across the North Slope and Arctic Coast Saturday
and Sunday. A 1017 mb low will move off the Chukotsk Peninsula
Saturday afternoon, quickly weakening as it moves northeast across
the Chukchi Sea Saturday night. Behind this low, a 1034 mb high
develops 200 NM northwest of Point Lay Sunday afternoon, moving
east northeast and strengthening to be a 1042 mb high centered 200
NM northwest of Utqiagvik by Monday afternoon.

Broad high pressure will continue to build northeast across the
Interior, extending northeast to the Arctic Coast. The high will
continue to strengthen tonight, building to 1040 mb Saturday.
Broad high pressure will remain in place through the weekend and
into early next week for much of the Interior.

A strong low will move into the western Bering Sea tonight between
the Kamchatka Peninsula and the far Western Aleutians. The low
will weaken Saturday and Sunday as it moves north and west towards
the Kamchatka Peninsula. As the low moves north and west, a 999
mb low will quickly spin up in the southwesterly flow tonight
northeast of Shemya. This low will weaken to 1002 mb as it quickly
moves northwest to Kamchatka Saturday morning.

Models...12Z model suite initialized fairly well against the 12Z
RAOBS and the 12Z and 18Z surface obs. Models are in good agreement
through the weekend; after that model solutions begin
to diverge early next week with the placement of the major upper
level features.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A weather front continuing east across
the Arctic Coast this afternoon and tonight, will produce periods of
light snow. West to southwesterly winds will increase across the
western Arctic Coast tonight, spreading eastward Saturday, as the
next front moves across the region. Snow will spread eastward with
the front. There is the potential on the northern upslope areas
of the eastern Brooks Range for some heavy snowfall Saturday and
Sunday. There is also the potential for blowing snow along the
coast when the strongest winds coincide with the falling snow, so
have maintained the ongoing winter weather advisories in zones 201
and 202, and added winter weather advisories to zones 203 and
204. As high pressure builds in across the Interior, southerly
winds in the Brooks Range will increase and become gusty, with
gusts to 40 mph. This likely will produce areas of blowing snow
and have issued a winter weather advisory for zone 206.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front moving north and
east across St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait this
afternoon will continue to move north along the Chukchi Sea Coast
tonight, bringing a mix of rain and snow, and the potential for
locally heavy snow in the favored upslope areas of the western
Brooks Range. Strong winds are expected from St Lawrence Island
north through the Bering Strait and up the Chukchi Sea Coast, with
the strongest winds occurring on St Lawrence Island with gusts to
55 mph possible and north of Kivalina where gusts to 50 mph are
possible. Winds will diminish tonight and tomorrow, with stronger
winds hanging on a little longer north of the Bering Strait, as
another surge of winds are expected. Precipitation will taper off
over St Lawrence Island tonight, lingering across the upslope
areas of the Western Brooks Range through Saturday. Quieter
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior: Quiet conditions the next several
days as high pressure builds in across the Interior. Partly cloudy
skies Saturday will give way to mostly clear skies Sunday and
Monday. Could see some patchy fog Saturday morning in valley
locations. Above normal temperatures continue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ245.
&&

MAR 19