Gale Warning 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
601 AM AKST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...We continue to be in a pretty active pattern, but that
will slow down a little as a broad ridge aloft moves over the
state Wednesday. Before we really start clearing in the Interior
more snow today with around 1 inch for most areas. Winds at higher
elevations may produce blowing snow impacting travel over summits
in the Interior and Brooks Range. A low pressure system will move
north in the Eastern Bering Sea tonight bringing another round of
winds and snow to the West Coast, so Winter Weather Warnings have
been issued for the Lower Yukon Delta, St Lawrence Island, and
the Southern Seward Peninsula. A low over the Central Arctic Coast
will move east today with a strong Barrier Jet developing near
the Eastern Brooks Range. Those winds will extend north over the
Eastern Arctic Coast, so Blizzard Warning has been Issued for the
Eastern Arctic Coast east of Deadhorse.

Models...19/00Z solutions initialized well. There is good
agreement on postilion and location of the major features.
Solutions show similar timing of the major waves impacting the
state today and moving up the West Coast tonight and Wednesday.
The good agreement continues into Saturday before they start
diverging. Precipitation solutions are similar as well. Will use a
blend of the SREF/NAM today. For winds will lean toward the
NAMDNG solution.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 512 dam low over Kaktovik with a trough
extending southwest over Tanana and Lake Minchumina will move east
today and will be over the Yukon Territory by midnight tonight. A
building ridge is over the West Coast this morning and it will
continue to build with 540 dam heights pushing north over
Southcentral Alaska and a cutoff 530 dam high center over Point
Lay by Wednesday morning. A developing low near the Central
Aleutians will move north with a closed center developing 200 nm
north of Adak and moving to 150 nm south of St Lawrence Island by
Wednesday morning at 504 dam.The low will be over the Bering
Strait by Thursday morning at 513 dam as it weakens. The closed
high will stretch north west over the Siberian Arctic while the
primary axis will extend southeast over Fort Yukon to Eagle and
southeast over the Yukon Territory. A 523 dam low will develop
near Port Heiden this evening and move to the northern Gulf of
Alaska at 514 dam by Thursday morning. Ridging will build north
over the Central Bering Sea behind the low and move to the West
Coast by Thursday evening, and over the whole state by Friday
morning with 525 dam heights pushing north to the Brooks Range. At
850 hpa...The -10C Isotherm is generally south of the forecast
area today with a pool of -20C tucked up against the north slopes
of the Brooks Range. Pool of -20C will expand over the Central and
Eastern Interior as well as as the Eastern Arctic.

Surface... A 1000 mb low near Prudhoe Bay will continue to move
east and will move into the Yukon Territory this evening. A front
associated with the low will move east across the Central and
Eastern Interior through this afternoon, then east of the AlCan
Border tonight. High pressure will continue to build north over
the West Coast into the afternoon then starts moving east as a 988
mb low near Adak moves north into the Bering Sea and will be 150
nm south of St Lawrence Island by Wednesday morning at 974 mb. The
low will continue to the Bering Strait by Thursday morning as it
weakens to 996 mb, then moves into the Chukchi Sea as it weakens
and is eventually absorbed by 973 mb low that will be 300 nm west
of St Lawrence Island Friday morning. A weather front will move
east across the Arctic Wednesday. High pressure will persist over
mainland Alaska with a 1034 mb high over the Eastern Arctic Plains
and a 1033 mb high over the Eastern Alaska Range. High pressure
will build back east across the Arctic behind the front with a
1024 mb high moving to 200 nm north of Point Barrow by Thursday
evening. High pressure will also hang on over the Eastern and
Central Interior extending southwest to a 1030 mb high 200 nm
southeast of Sand Point.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low moving east over the Arctic
Coast will produce Blizzard conditions this afternoon generally
east of Deadhorse as Barrier Jet develops along the Eastern
Brooks Range enhancing surface winds along the coast. Snow across
the area as a weather front moves through. High pressure builds
over the Upper Yukon Flats as troughing develops north of the
Brooks Range, expect gusty south winds to develop Wednesday
afternoon and diminish Thursday. Winds will be gusting to around
35 mph with Blowing and Drifting snow impacting travel along the
Dalton Highway.

West Coast and Western Interior...A pretty nice day today across
the area. Some light snow and flurries mainly north of Kaltag
will be clearing from the west as high pressure move over the
area. A strong low will be moving up the West Coast tonight
spreading snow into the Lower Yukon Delta around midnight and
spreading north overnight. Expect some heavy snowfall in the
Southern Nulato Hills, the Bendeleben Mountains on the Seward
Peninsula, and along the south slopes of the Western Brooks
Range. Strong gusty winds developing in the Norton Sound Region
tonight and in the kotzebue Sound Region Wednesday afternoon will
produce blowing snow impacting travel in the area. Temperatures
will be warming a few degrees, but expect precipitation to remain
snow. Strongest winds will be on St Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait Coast, and Little Diomede with gusts around 50 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Light snow or flurries will
persist across the area into the afternoon with around 1 inch of
accumulations for most areas. Winds on the summits picking up and
with the fresh snow and falling snow visibility will be limited by
blowing snow so Winter Weather Advisories continue for the
summits along the Steese and Dalton Highways. Winds in the valleys
will remain light and generally variable. Temperatures will be
quite a bit cooler the next couple days than they have been.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft building over
the state while several fronts will move north over the West
Coast, then northeast across the Arctic. Heavy snowfall expected
in the Western Brooks Range, the West Coast, and Western Interior
Friday afternoon through Saturday night. More precipitation Sunday
afternoon along the Coast. Some snow north and west of Manley Hot
Springs Saturday morning, and some flurries in the around the
interior Saturday night. On the Arctic Coast some snow Saturday
morning with strong gusty winds around Atigun Pass, a short break
with some clearing, then more snow for the Western Brooks Range
and Northwest Arctic Coast Sunday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving
northeast across the Chukotsk Peninsula Friday will bring elevated
water levels to the Southern Seward Peninsula around Nome, and St
Lawrence Island around Gambell. Not expecting any significant
impacts, but will continue to watch as this develops.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ235.

&&

SDB FEB 19