Gale Warning 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska has entered a warm, snowy and windy pattern for
the next few days. The North Slope will see near Blizzard
conditions in the West of Barrow tonight which will spread east
across the North Slope on Tue. There will be a brief lull in winds
and Weather on Tue night before another storm bring, windy
conditions for Wed with significant snow and possible blizzard
conditions for the West Coast. The second half of the week will
have a series of storms move north over the West Coast.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep long wave trough over the
Bering Sea and NW Pacific with a flat ridge over the Gulf if
Alaska and mainland Alaska. A Series of strong short wave troughs
are making their way NE through this ridge and across Northern AK
this week. The ridge will build strongly over Mainland AK next
weekend.

Surface...
A 996 mb low near Kotzebue will move to near Utqiagvik as a 996
mb low by 3pm Mon, to 80 NM northwest of Nuiqsut as a 1000 mb low
by 3am Tue, to 80 NM north of Demarcation Point as a 1014 mb low
by 3pm Tue, to just north of Inuvik as a 1018 mb low by 3am Wed
and then continue east. Several inches of snow with the low will
move northeast with the low, NW winds of 25g35kt on the SW
quadrant of the low will cause blowing snow, with 1/2 mile
visibility expected over zone 201 tonight and early Tue, over
zone 202 3am to 9pm Tue, then spreading to zones 203, 204 and 206
later on Tue. Zone 204 will see the worst conditions.

An occluded front stretching from the low to Barter Island to
Fairbanks to Mcgrath will move to Inuvik to Eagle to Denali by 3pm
Mon, then to Dawson to Northway by 3am Tue. then continue east.
Snow along this feature will moves east with the front. Expect
another several inches of snow in the Eastern Interior today along
and southeast of this front. Snow will taper off west of the
front and south of the low.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to near King
Salmon by 3pm Tue and into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This will
feed mores moisture north causing snow to continue along the
Alaska Range into tonight.

High pressure over the Central Bering Sea will move over the West
Coast tonight, over the Western Interior and Western North SLope Tue,
and over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope Tue night
and Wed. This will cause clearing and cooling.

A strong low will move north into the southern Bering Sea on Tue
and to the northern Bering Sea on Wed. This will bring gale force
winds and another round of possible Blizzards to the West Coast
Wed PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 06Z, models verify well on surface features. Models initialize
well aloft and show similar solutions aloft through 3pm Tue.
Models do differ on surface low near Kotzebue as it moves NE
through Tue night. The NAM and ECMF are slower than the GFS in
moving the low NE. Since this feature is vertically stacked now,
we opt for the slower movement of the NAM and ECMF, which keeps
the low vertically stacked while the GFS moves the surface feature
east ahead of the low aloft. This affects the North Slope
significantly, as the NAM and ECMF bring more precip, stronger
winds and more blowing snow than the GFS solution would.

The low moving north over the Bering Sea from Tue into Wed has
significant differences in track and between models. We opted
for the GFS solution on this Bering Sea feature for Tue night and
Wed as the GFS location was mid way between the fast ECMF and the
slower NAM locations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Rising water expected along the West Coast from the Bering Strait
south Wed through Fri. If seal levels will rise enough to be a
problem is very uncertain due to varying storm tracks shown by
weather models, but with southerly flow we know water levels will
rise.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ209-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB FEB 19