Gale Warning 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
The north slope this morning is clear with a cold airmass in place
as offshore wind continues. The far eastern interior remains under
a mid level stratus band of clouds with some flurries shaking out
of it. The central interior is clear and on the cool side. The
west coast has yet another front in the string of storm system
that have and will continue to batter the region.

The weekend will bring a continued train of storms to the west
coast and upper level features translating inland into the
interior. Expect periods of strong winds and snow with possible
blizzard conditions on the west coast. Even some snow possible
into the interior over the weekend. The storm positions will
determine if and where any coastal flooding hazards can be
expected.

Aloft...
An upper low over the western Bering Sea and an upper low off the
Oregon coast have pushed up a ridge over the mainland of Alaska
this morning. By Friday mid day the upper low over the western
Bering will move into the central Bering Sea the Oregon coast low
will drift slowly to the south with the ridge axis over the YK
Delta. On Saturday mid day the ridge axis shifts from the YK Delta
over the far eastern interior the Bering upper low widens out into
a broad trough over the Bering. The upper low over Oregon moves
over British Columbia. By Sunday mid day the ridge axis continues
east over the Yukon and a short wave will move into the west coast
as the main trough of upper level low pressure retrogrades into
the bay of Okhotsk.

Surface...
A strong surface low off the Kamchatka Peninsula at 959 mb at 12Z
has a front across the Bering Sea with the wrap around front near
the far western end of the Aleutian Chain. High pressure over the
north slope with a weak trough exiting the far eastern interior.
The Bering front will move inland and dissipate quickly over the
western interior late this evening as another front quickly moves
into the southwestern Bering Sea later today and then moves
towards the YK Delta by mid day Friday then pushes into the
southwest and west coast overnight Friday night. By mid day on
Sunday another major storm enters into the Bering Sea with yet
another round for the west for the extended period of the
forecast.

Models...
The main suite of models has a fair agreement with the synoptic
pattern through the weekend ahead. The ensemble GFS has fairly
high confidence with the main features in the upper levels. Main
issues continue with strength and short term timing. The solution
for this afternoon will remain with the deeper solution of the GFS
on strength of the system with stronger wind and lower pressures
that have been observed therefore should have the high probability
with the positioning of the NAM for the finer features and
positions of lows, fronts and upper level waves.

Regional Highlights...

North Slope...
A windchill advisory will be in effect on the
slope from 06Z-18Z with temperatures around 30 below with wind
around 10 knots will create enough impact for the continued need
for the hazard overnight. Through the weekend the region will have
little to no impact weather with wind generally under 20 knots.
Only issues will be low end windchill events.

Eastern Interior...
Mid stratus and flurries will slowly clear out this afternoon and
evening. The next event for the region will be snow on Saturday
and Sunday over the Eastern Interior. The amounts should be low
enough to avoid any need for advisories as the event nears it is
possible an SPS can highlight any low end impacts to the region
from the snow. Temperatures will be the coolest overnight tonight
and then moderate through the period. The Tanana Valley Jet does
not look to be impactful enough for windchill advisories.

Western Interior...
The Bering Sea front moves inland tonight with generally lighter
snow for the western interior below advisory levels. Friday night
into Saturday the next front moves inland and this front could
bring more snow to the region. No highlights expected this
afternoon update. Wind will remain fairly low to reduce the
impact from any blowing snow for the valley locations through the
period.

West Coast...
This evening 213 & 214 will have the impacts from this first front
with the winter weather advisory dissipate. Gale and brisk wind
will end from southwest to northeast for the first 24 hours.
Friday afternoon and evening the second front will begin to move
into the southwestern areas YK delta and spread north with time
lasting into Sunday. The impacts will be reduced visibilities from
blowing and falling snow. Expect the need for advisories and or
warnings for the region and enough possibility that blizzard might
be warrantied with the duration in the YK Delta.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Expect elevated sea levels along the West Coast of Alaska Fri
night and Sat with water rising 2-3 feet above normal tides
levels. Do not expect flooding north of the Bering Strait, but
very minor flooding is possible south of the Bering Strait. If
there is flooding, it should be less than what happened on Tue.
Monday and Tuesday of the new week look to bring another strong
system into the region. Model variability keeps confidence on the
low end for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

PROTON FEB 19