Gale Warning 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...Very active weather pattern continues this week for
Northern Alaska with periods of light snow continuing over the
Central and Eastern Interior tonight and Winter Weather Advisories
hoisted for snow and freezing rain over the Central and Eastern
Interior for tomorrow and continuing into Wednesday. Snow,
blowing snow, high winds and areas of freezing rain are also on
tap for the West Coast and Western Interior where Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. In
addition A High Wind Warning and High Surf Advisory have been
issued for the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island Tonight into
through Wednesday. Strong winds and heavy snow are on tap for the
Alaska Range Tuesday into Thursday where A Winter Storm Warning
has been issued for zone 226 and a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for zone 225.

Models...The 18/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
surface analysis and verified well against the 18z Surface
analysis. This model run much like the last several runs displays
limited spread in the short range but significant differences
develop across the model solutions by Wednesday on the track and
strength of synoptic scale features especially the location,
track and strength of the second strong low moving northeast along
the Aleutian Chain into Bristol Bay on Thursday.

Aloft...A 532 Dam high over northeast Alaska anchors a trough
that will deepen and dig south and west as a deep upper level low
over the eastern Bering Sea pushes north along the coast Tuesday
and Wednesday. An upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska will
continue to strengthen and push north and east over the Yukon
through Wednesday. Strong shortwaves rotating around the upper
level low over the Eastern Bering Sea will move north along the
back side of the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday as well as Thursday
into to Friday. The upper level troughing will persist over the
west coast and Western Interior through the week.

Surface...A 960 mb low currently over the Central Aleutians will
continue to move north and east out of the Northern Pacific and
then stall over the Southern Bering Sea just north of Cold Bay
Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong front rotating around this low
will push north and east into the YK Delta Tuesday morning and the
Southern Interior Tuesday afternoon. This low will then weaken to
970 mb as it tracks over the Yukon Delta on Wednesday.

Interior: Light snow will slowly diminish this evening over the
Central and Eastern Interior tonight with less than one half of an
inch additional snowfall accumulation expected. On Tuesday,
strong Chinook flow will develop over the Alaska Range and will
continue into Thursday. Strong southerly chinook winds are
expected to develop in and along the northern Foothills of the
Alaska Range as well as the Alaska Range Passes. Heavy snow is
also expected to develop for portions of the Alaska range. Winter
Storm Warnings have been issued for the Eastern Alaska Range where
nearly a foot of snow is expected to fall and winds are expected
to gust to around 70 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for snow and strong winds for the
Central Alaska Range. A Wind Advisory has been issued for zone 223
where dry down sloping winds are expected to gust in excess of 50
mph. A front will pushing north over the Interior Tuesday
afternoon will produce a wide range of weather over the interior.
For areas from Fairbanks south, the Chinook winds will limit the
potential for precipitation, although we will have to continue to
monitor this area for a wintery mix of precipitation as the front
moves through late Tuesday afternoon. Snow and light freezing
rain is expected from Fairbanks north to the Yukon River. North of
the Yukon River all snow is expected Tuesday evening and
Wednesday. Winter weather advisories are in effect for zones 219,
220, 221, 222 and 224 with the potential for 4 to 6 inches of snow
over highway summits north of the Yukon River and 2 to 4 inches
and light freezing rain in the hills north of Fairbanks. 1 to 2
inches of snow with a chance of light freezing rain is possible in
Fairbanks beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening. Freezing rain
is expected to change to snow over the Fairbanks area late Tuesday
evening and remain snow into Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior: Another round of strong winds and
precipitation is expected for the west coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. A strong front rotating around the low will begin to
impact the Lower YK Delta and Western Alaska Tuesday and continue
into Wednesday. The potential for heavy snow and blowing snow
with some freezing rain mixed in at times as warm air is advected
aloft across the west coast on Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings have
been issued for zones 212, 214, 215 and 216. Also a winter
weather advisory is out for zone 227 for snow and freezing rain.
Ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch of ice. A high wind
warning has also been issued for Saint Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait Tuesday into Wednesday. The west coast will remain
unsettled through the week. A high Surf Advisory has been issued
for the north shore of St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday
with strong onshore northeast winds and relatively long fetch.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Sustained north to
northeast winds through the Bering Strait onto St Lawrence Island
will produce above normal water levels beginning Tuesday and will
likely continue into Friday. A high surf advisory has been issued
for the North Shore of St Lawerence Island.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC NOV 19