Gale Warning 105, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
106 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant fall day over much of northern Alaska this evening with
partly cloudy skies and above normal temperature over the Central
and Eastern Interior and mostly cloudy skies elsewhere.

A strong low pressure system currently over the western Bering Sea
will continue to push east tonight into the Central Bering Sea
bringing Gale force winds to the marine areas south of the Bering
Strait and strong winds and heavy rains along the coast south of
the Bering Strait. In addition to the the strong winds, expect
high surf along the coast from Golovin to Nome. Additionally, gap
winds through the Alaska Range will increase tomorrow evening
and continue through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft, strong high pressure is currently over western Canada,
with a weak shortwave centered over Western Brooks Range. A few
showers are possible tonight over the western and central Interior
as the shortwave pushes east and north. A deep upper level low
will move into the eastern Bering Sea tomorrow morning and be
centered over St. Matthew Island Thursday afternoon. The bulk of
the energy from this system will move southeast into the Gulf of
Alaska going into the weekend. A weak ridge will build over
northeastern Alaska Thursday afternoon and persist into Friday.

At the surface, a weak low pressure system currently located over
the Bering Strait will continue to weaken tonight as it moves
north into the southern Chukchi Sea. A weak ridge of high pressure
currently over the Eastern Bering Sea will push rapidly north and
east tonight over the Western Interior and Central Brooks Range.
A 975 mb low currently Just east of the Kamchtka Peninsula will
move east into the Western Bering Sea tonight and into the Central
Bering Sea Wednesday as a 970 mb low. Models continue to differ
slightly on intensity and location of the central low past
tomorrow evening, but consensus is a front will bring heavy
precipitation to the West Coast tomorrow afternoon and strong
easterly winds will increase over St. Lawrence Island and the
Lower YK Delta Wednesday morning and will increase over Norton
Sound tomorrow afternoon and will remain strong into Thursday. The
low pressure will linger off the West Coast through Thursday
before weakening and moving into Bristol Bay Thursday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range....
Quiet conditions this continue across the Arctic Coast and Brooks
Range. Generally east flow expected for the next few days as high
pressure remains in place near Banks Island and as a deep low
pressure system moves into the Central Bering Sea. As the strong
low pressure moves over the Central Bering Sea, east winds will
increase along the North Slope with sustained winds to 25 mph.
Temperatures expected to decrease but still remain above average
going into late week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered showers over much of the interior this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected this evening west of a McGrath to
Tanana to Bettles line as a weak shortwave moves north and east
over the Central Brooks Range. Winds in the higher terrain
expected to increase tomorrow afternoon due to the approaching low
off the West Coast. Gap winds through the Alaska Range will begin
to increase tomorrow evening with peak wind gusts to 50 mph by
Thursday morning. Wind Advisories have been issued for the Central
and Eastern Alaska Range. Slightly cooler temperatures expected
for the Interior for the next couple of days.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Scattered showers will dissipate tonight. A strong weather front
will begin to impact the West Coast with heavy rain and strong
winds tomorrow morning over St Lawrence Island and the Lower YK
Delta and by tomorrow afternoon over Norton Sound. Wind gusts to
55 mph are expected for St Lawrence Island and the Lower YK Delta
(especially along the Coast) and wind gusts to 45 mph are
expected elsehwere. Rain accumulations between 0.50 and 0.75
inches expected around Norton Sound, with localized amounts above
1.00 inch in the Nulato Hills region. High Surf Advisory is valid
for the beaches between Nome and Golovin due to the strong
southeast winds that will erode the beach and possibly damage the
Nome Council Road beginning tomorrow morning. Temperatures
expected to remain in the mid 50s for the next few days.

Models...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread on todays model suite remains reasonable in through
the end of the week but displays considerable spread by the
weekend on the track and strength of the next storm system moving
northeast out of the Northern Pacific into the Western Bering
Sea.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Gale force winds expected to dissipate through Norton Sound by
Thursday morning. Therefore, high surf impacts expected to end at
this time as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Shower activity along the norther portions of the West Coast
will diminish tonight. The Wulik river has crested and continues
to drop, however many rivers in the Western Brooks range will
continue to run high through the end of the week. Precaution
should be taken in the lagoon area near Kivalina as flooding will
be possible where Wulik River empties into the lagoon.

A strong Bering Sea storm will cause rises on streams and rivers
in the Nulato Hills region as 0.50-0.75 inches are expected, with
localized amounts exceeding an inch in higher terrain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC SEP 19