Gale Warning 101, NWS Fairbanks, AK

340 
FZAK51 PAFG 121202
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130245-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1009 mb low 350 NM N of Utqiagvik will move to 250 NM N of
Utqiagvik by this afternoon this low will continue south this
evening before being absorbed into a stronger low early Tuesday. A
1004 mb low will develop near Point Hope this afternoon and will
move east this evening. By early Tuesday morning this low will be
near Utqiagvik by early Tuesday morning at 1001 mb. This low will
move back west on Tuesday and will be near Point Lay by Tuesday
afternoon. 


$$

PKZ225-130245-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-130245-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-130245-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-130245-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-130245-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
402 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

Aug 19

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
635 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected over the next few days
across much of northern Alaska. A weather front will bring gusty
easterly winds to the eastern Arctic Coast. This front will also
bring rainfall to the the eastern Arctic Coast and the eastern
Brooks Range. A series of weather systems will bring the potential
for heavy rainfall as they move from west to east over the west
coast and the Interior.

As far as the models go, there hasn't been a great deal of run to
run consistency over the past few days. The models have the same
general idea with the synoptic scale pattern; however they differ
on differ on the exact placement of features almost from the
start.

Central and Eastern Interior: Relatively quiet weather for Sunday
and Monday. Some patchy fog has been observed this morning. This
will abate by late morning. A few isolated to scattered showers
are possible today near the Canadian Border. Otherwise we aren't
expecting any precipitation until Monday evening. A weather front
will push east across the Interior Monday evening and Tuesday.
While there is still disagreement between the models on the amount
of precipitation expected as well as the placement of the
heaviest precipitation. Nonetheless, we can expect precipitation
amounts of over a half of an inch over a wide swath of the
Interior between Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon. This front
will also cause increased southwesterly winds across the Interior,
with higher terrain areas northeast of Fairbanks seeing gusts to
35 mph Monday night into early Tuesday. A second round of
precipitation will move east over the Interior Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. This system looks to take a more southerly track.
Thus, areas along the north of the Yukon River will see less
rainfall with this second round. The second round of rainfall will
bring another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall to
the southern Interior. After Wednesday, the pattern looks to
remain active through the end of the workweek; however, at the
moment, the models have a lot of disagreement on the exact
details. Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 60s to low
70s. Rainfall will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday.

North slope and Brooks Range: A weather front will push south
today over the eastern half of the North Slope. This system will
bring rainfall to the Beaufort Sea Coast and the eastern half of
the Brooks Range. Upslope enhancement will bring half to three
quarters of an inch of rainfall to the eastern Brooks Range
through early Monday morning. This will cause some rises in rivers
that drain the north side of the eastern Brooks Range, especially
rivers east of the Sag River. This system will also bring gusty
westerly winds to areas along the coast today. The strongest
winds will be east of Deadhorse where gusts up to 25 mph are
expected. A weather front moving in from the southwest will spread
rainfall over the north slope Monday night.

West Coast and Western Interior: Areas of stratus and patchy fog
persist along the coast this morning, with some areas dropping
below a mile at times in fog. This will likely persist through the
day today and into the overnight hours. Some patchy fog is also
present in the western Interior this morning. This fog should
dissipate by late morning.  Showers will continue across St
Lawrence Island to the Seward Peninsula today. A weather front
approaches the West Coast on Monday and will push west across the
Western Interior Monday and Monday night, bringing the next round
of rain, with potentially heavy rainfall. Another round of
rainfall is expected on Tuesday especially south of Galena. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively quiet on the next few days. Minimum RH values are
expected to remain above 40 percent through the upcoming week. A
weather system will push from west to east over the Interior late
Monday into Tuesday bringing a round of wetting rainfall. A
second system will move over the southern Interior late Tuesday
into Wednesday bringing another round of wetting rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Many rivers in the Interior remain high, but are currently on a
a very slow downward trend. A series of weather systems that are
expected to move across the state between the Alaska and Brooks
Ranges early this week will bring over an inch of rainfall in a 48
hour period to a wide swath of the southern Interior through
Wednesday. This will cause increased flow in rivers and streams.
Rainfall associated with a weather front moving south today over
the eastern Brooks Range will cause rises in the rivers that drain
the north side of the eastern Brooks Range, especially those east
of the Sag River.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

AUG 19