Brisk Wind Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern continues as the strong low that pushed
through the Bering Strait yesterday bringing blizzard conditions
over much of Western Alaska and coastal flooding to Norton Sound
is now over the North slope. The low continues to produce snow
and blowing snow over the western North Slope is expected to
produce Blizzard conditions over the Eastern North Slope beginning
this evening and continuing through tomorrow evening.

Aloft at 500 hpa, the strong shortwave over the Canadian border
has temporarily flattened the upper level ridge that has
dominated eastern Alaska for the last several days. In the wake of
the shortwave westerly flow dominates tonight but by Wednesday
another ridge over he eastern Bering Sea will build north and
east over the West Coast Wednesday and Western Alaska Thursday.
Another strong short wave will push into the eastern Bering Sea
and begin to impact the West Coast Thursday evening.

On the surface the deep low that moved through the Bering Strait
Yesterday has weakened slightly and is currently located near
Prudhoe Bay as a 988 mb low. As the low continues to move north
and east very strong southwest to west winds will develop over the
eastern north slope with blizzard conditions expected to develop
early this evening. Wind gusts near Bartar Island may exceed 60
mph tonight. Winter Storm Warnings for blizzard conditions remain
in effect for these areas and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect west of Point Barrow where winds are not expected to reach
warning criteria. Will continue to monitor as very low
visibilities will likely continue well into tonight in these
areas.

In the western interior gusty winds and heavy snow and strong
winds will continue into this evening as the poison tail area of
heavy precipitation and strong winds pushes northeast into the
Brooks Range and North Slope. 6 to 10 inches of snow has fallen
over much of the western interior and 20 inches falling overnight
at Cold Foot in the Brooks Range. Generally 3 to 5 inches of snow
has fallen over the southern portions of the central interior
which is being whipped around by wind gusts to 40 mph as the front
passes through. Expect low visibilities in blowing and drifting
snow over all of the interior Summits through the night. Winds
are expected to diminish later this evening at valley level in
the central interior and by morning in the eastern interior.

Rapid cooling is ongoing behind the front with 850 mb temperatures
dropping from minus 12 at Fairbanks this afternoon to minus 18
Wednesday morning and minus 22 by Wednesday evening. Surface
temperatures that were in the mid 20s today in Fairbanks will
struggle to reach 10 above tomorrow and zero on Thursday. Low
temperature Friday morning in the Fairbanks area will flirt with
20 below as a ridge builds in aloft and at the surface.

Wednesday and Thursday will provide a brief break in the recent
storminess over Northern Alaska, however a strong front weather
rotating around another strong in the Central Bering Sea will push
into the Lower YK Delta on Thursday evening and the Seward
Peninsula Friday morning.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis as far
as feature position however the deep Bering Sea Low was again
initialized several mbs too high and the strength of the upper
level ridge over Canada was underestimated. Model spread is
reasonable through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-
AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235.
&&

CCC FEB 19

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