Brisk Wind Advisory 67, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern continues through early next week as a
series of weather fronts move across northern Alaska, bringing
periods of heavy snow, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a shortwave axis stretches across Mackenzie Bay
to Eagle to Northway this morning, flattening the ridge, resulting
in two ridge axis, one stretching across the Northwest
Territories, the Yukon Territory, and southeast Alaska, and the
other from Kenai to McGrath to Deering to Point Hope to Wrangel
Island. A second more subtle shortwave is stretched across the Y-K
Delta.

As the eastern shortwave slides east today, the ridge axis will
move east as well, to be centered from the central Beaufort Sea
coast south to Venetie to Dot Lake to Cordova this afternoon as
the ridge amplifies across the state. The western shortwave will
lift northeast across the state stretching from Point Hope to
Kotzebue to Tanana to Healy by this afternoon. Tonight, the ridge
axis will continues eastward to be stretched along the Alcan
border by Sunday morning, with a sharp shortwave stretching from
the Gulf of Anadyr across the central Bering Sea to just east of
the Pribilofs to Port Heiden. Sunday afternoon, the ridge axis
will be east of the Alcan border, with a closed high developing
over the Yukon Territory, while the shortwave moves east northeast
to be stretched across the Chukotsk Peninsula to Diomede to
Emmonak to Bethel to a low situated in the Gulf of Alaska
southeast of Kodiak. The closed high will weaken and be stretched
from Banks Island southwest to Mackenzie Bay to Eagle to McCarthy
by Monday morning, while the shortwave continues to track east
northeast to be located from Point Lay to Hughes to Tanana to Lake
Minchumina to Anchorage. Behind the shortwave, ridging once again
begins to builds in across the West Coast, while yet another low
moves into the western Bering Sea. As this low in the western
Bering Sea moves northeastward Monday, the associated shortwave
will slide across the West Coast and Western Interior, pushing the
ridge axis eastward across the state.

Surface...A weather front extending from Banks Island southwest
along the Arctic Coast early this morning will move to the east
northeast towards Mackenzie Bay by mid morning. High pressure
behind the front will quickly move eastward across the Beaufort
Sea today, as a 984 mb low moves north of Wrangel Island. A lee
side trough will develop north of the Brooks Range today and
linger into Sunday.

A 960 mb low in the Western Bering Sea will move north today
weakening to a 974 mb low near the Chukotsk Peninsula this
afternoon and a 992 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula Sunday
morning. A trough of low pressure stretching from near Nunivak
Island to the Pribilofs this afternoon, with a closed center of
1005 mb, will move north tonight to be a 996 mb low over the
western Seward Peninsula by Sunday morning, quickly moving
northeast to be north of Wainwright by Sunday afternoon. A weather
front over the eastern Bering Sea this morning will stretch from
the Chukchi Sea south to the Seward Peninsula and the Y-K Delta by
this afternoon and will slowly move eastward.

A 960 mb low will move into the western Bering Sea Sunday night
weakening to 972 mb by Monday afternoon as it approaches St
Lawrence Island.

Models...00Z model suite initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS
and the 00Z and 06Z surface obs and remains in fairly good
agreement with the overall synoptic pattern into early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Weather front is pushing across the
eastern Arctic Coast this morning bringing gusty winds, blowing
snow, and snow to zones 203 and 204. Winds will diminish this
morning as high pressure builds in behind it and the upgraded
blizzard warnings should be able to be able to be dropped for zone
203 at 6 am and for zone 204 possibly by mid morning. The high
pressure will slide east quickly today with a lee side trough
developing north of the Brooks Range this morning, tightening the
pressure gradient across the Brooks Range with strong southerly
gap winds developing in passes. The strong winds combined with
periods of falling snow will result in areas of blowing snow and
reduced visibilities. A kink in the pressure gradient will develop
west of Point Lay this morning, bringing increased winds and areas
of blowing snow from Point Lay west today. Issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for blowing snow for zone 201. A weather front will move
east across the North Slope Sunday afternoon and night.

West Coast and Western Interior: The next weather front is
approaching the West Coast this morning and will move into the
Western Interior tonight into Sunday. The front will be slow to
move and will bring another round of heavy snow, strong winds,
and blowing snow, as well as mixed precipitation (primarily from
the Seward Peninsula and south). A number of new warnings and
advisories were issued this morning. There will be a brief lull in
activity Sunday night, as this front moves eastward across the
Interior, and the next system moves onshore the West Coast Monday.
The system on Monday will bring another round of snow, blowing
snow, and very strong winds to St Lawrence Island and the area
south of the Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior: Precipitation has largely ended
across the Central and Eastern Interior this morning, with areas
of fog and low ceilings lingering. Ahead of the next front
approaching the Interior, southerly gap winds develop in the
Alaska Range passes tonight and continue into Sunday afternoon,
with winds briefly approaching advisory level Sunday morning in
zone 226. Additional chances of snow for the region Sunday into
Monday with the approach and passage of the next front. Heaviest
snowfall will occur west of Bettles.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low in the Bering
Sea will bring very strong southwesterly winds to south of the
Bering Strait Monday night. Ice in Norton Sound will prevent the
development of large waves; however, this system will still cause
elevated water levels along the coast of Norton Sound, especially
from Unalakleet north (although exactly how high the water will
get is uncertain at the moment). In addition the winds may push
some ice onto the shore. We will continue to monitor this system
through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

FEB 19