Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A series of weather fronts moving north along the West Coast will
bring periods of snow and blowing snow to the West Coast tonight
into Wednesday. Increasing easterly winds across the Interior will
bring periods of blowing snow along the highways summits of the
Central Interior tonight and Tuesday. Strong southerly flow aloft
will allow for a moderate chinook to develop in the Alaska Range
Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing a warm up for areas south of
the Brooks Range.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a low over the Seward Peninsula will continue to
retrograde over the Bering, deepening the long wave trough over
the Bering Sea, with the long wave trough persisting through the
end of the week. An upper level ridge behind the low will build in
across Alaska through the week, with shortwaves moving through
the flow.

Surface...A low pressure trough stretches west from Victoria
Island to just east of Utqiagvik. This trough will weaken tonight
as high pressure moves in from the west. A lee side trough will
develop north of the Brooks Range, deepening through Wednesday,
with a pinch developing south of Barter Island.

A 1031 mb high 200 NM northeast of Wrangel Island will slide east
to be a 1030 mb high 350 NM northwest of Utqiagvik Tuesday morning
to a 1025 mb high 75 NM west of Banks Island by Wednesday morning.

A 963 mb low over Seguam Island will lift north to be a 964 mb
low 100 NM northeast of Atka by Tuesday afternoon and a 971 mb low
300 NM west of St Paul Island Wednesday afternoon. The associated
weather front will move north along the West Coast tonight and
weaken Tuesday. A second front will move north across the Y-K
Delta Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A 975 mb low near Cold Bay Wednesday morning will lift north to be
994 mb low between St Lawrence Island and Nome by Thursday
morning. The associated weather front stretching east from the low
across the West Coast and into the Interior will move north
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

Models...12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
against the 12Z and 15Z surface obs. Models are in fair agreement
with the overall synoptic pattern through midweek. Mesoscale
differences become apparent by Wednesday 21Z, especially for the
shortwave located near the Queen Charlotte Islands and the lows in
the Bering Sea near the Aleutians. Differences at the surface
begin by 12Z Tuesday for the low along the southeast AK coast and
with the low near Atka, with the spread increasing as the features
move north across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Main concern will be wind chill
values. Temperatures will remain cold over the North Slope through
Tuesday, before moderating some for midweek. Increasing winds
combined with the cold temperatures will produce periods of low
wind chill values, especially along the western North Slope, where
wind chills will drop to around 55 below. Went ahead and started
the Wind Chill Advisory for zone 201 this afternoon, since winds
picked up quicker and wind chill values of -51F were already
being observed at Point Lay. Wind chills will need to be monitored
around Barter Island, winds and wind chill values have been close
to wind chill advisory criteria, but anticipate winds diminishing
some this evening. Southerly winds increase in the eastern Brooks
Range, especially in the passes, with gusts to 30 mph possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Front moving across the Brooks Range
Wednesday and Thursday will bring a round of snow.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front moving north
along the coast tonight and Tuesday will bring gusty easterly
winds across the region tonight and Tuesday, with a second front
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday keeping the winds up. Snow and
blowing snow will develop Tuesday as the fronts move north along
the coast. Added a Winter Weather Advisory for zone 215 for
blowing snow beginning Tuesday afternoon. Winds will increase
across the Nulato Hills and eastern Norton Sound with gusts to 40
mph possible. While some snow is expected, primarily in the
upslope areas of the Nulato Hills, significant visibility
reductions due to blowing snow are not anticipated at this time.
Snowfall totals through Wednesday will range from 1 to 3 inches,
with isolated higher amounts possible. The increasing winds
combined with cold temperatures will produce low wind chills along
the Chukchi Sea coast, primarily for areas from Kivalina north,
beginning this evening. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect
for wind chills dropping to 45 below.

Central and Eastern Interior: A weather front moving north along
the West Coast tonight and Tuesday will tighten the pressure
gradient across the Interior bringing increasing easterly winds,
especially over the highway summits of the Central Interior. The
combination of the winds and recently fallen snow, will produce
areas of low visibility due to blowing and drifting snow this
evening through Tuesday. High pressure building north into the
Interior will induce a weak mountain wave across the Alaska Range,
allowing for a moderate chinook to develop Tuesday night
continuing into Wednesday and strong southerly winds in the
passes. A bit of Tanana Valley Jet this afternoon, but winds will
diminish this evening and overnight before restrengthening Tuesday
into Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens with gusty east
to southeasterly winds expected near Delta Junction; winds will
begin to diminish Wednesday night. Wind Advisories will likely be
needed for zones 223 and 225. The southerly flow will bring warmer
temperatures over northern Alaska south of the Brooks Range,
especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

EB JAN 19