Brisk Wind Advisory 101, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Wed Feb 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Strong lows continue to move north through the Bering
Sea and across Chukotka with strong high pressure over mainland
Alaska. Near storm force winds along the West Coast this evening
and overnight. Winds gusting to 85 mph near Cape Lisburne with
gusts around 70 mph near the Bering Strait. Near Blizzard
conditions can be expected on the outer Capes, St Lawrence Island,
and Diomede. A mix of precipitation is possible as the low moves
through the area pulling some warmer air north. High pressure over
interior Alaska will keep the eastern two thirds of the state
relatively cloud free into Saturday.

Models...27/12Z solutions continue good continuity and remain in
good agreement through the weekend. They do diverge next week a
bit, but there is enough similarity that a blend with the
Ensemble means for the extended periods will work. Yesterdays
solution using a blend of the SREF/NAM worked well, so will lean
that direction again today. NAM/NAMDNG solution for winds, but
will need to make some local edits for the normally windy areas.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging aloft persists with a 564 dam center
over McCarthy while the primary axis has rotated to lie over the
AlCan Border and Beaufort Sea. The center remains nearly
stationary as a 558 dam center develops over the Western Alaska
Range tonight and moves over the Eastern Brooks Range by Thursday
afternoon. Deep longwave trough remains over the Western Bering
Sea with a 496 dam low center over the Northern Kamchatka
Peninsula. As a ridge axis rotates north around the center over
the Bering Sea tonight the low will be pushed a bit west, with a
505 dam low developing over the Southcentral Bering Sea and moving
over the Western Gulf of Anadyr as the ridge axis moves north to
lie over 70N Thursday evening. The low will rotate back to the
northwest and merge with the Kamchatka low as the ridge axis moves
north to lie from the 558 dam high that will be over Barter
Island northwest over 75N in the Siberian Arctic. As the high
continues to move northeast over the Beaufort Sea troughing
develops over the southern mainland as the high over the Northern
Gulf of Alaska moves south and a 546 dam low will develop over
Haines Junction in the Yukon Territory Friday morning. The low
will be pulled to the northwest Saturday and will be over
Fairbanks early Saturday morning before merging with a trough that
will be moving northeast across the state. At 850 hpa...The -10C
isotherm is north and west of the forecast area with some spotty
areas of temperatures around zero over the state this evening.
Some warmer air is being pulled north over the West Coast tonight
as the lows move north and northwest through the area. A
significant dome of around zero temperatures develops over the
Arctic Plains and Northwest Arctic Coast tonight and Thursday, and
expands with a large dome of warmer air moving over the Central
and Eastern Interior Thursday as the high aloft moves northeast
into the Arctic. Cooler temperatures move to the West Coast Friday
afternoon and evening and will continue to push east through the
weekend.

Surface...Broad area of high pressure will persist over mainland
Alaska and the Yukon Territory. A 1035 mb high will continue to
build over the Upper Yukon Flats tonight with a 1034 mb high in
the Upper Tanana Valley. A 1038 mb high over Banks Island will
slide east as it builds to 1042 mb, then moves south over the
Northwest Territories as it builds to 1053 mb by Friday morning.
The 988 mb low has moved to the Gulf of Anadyr and will continue
north to Wrangel Island by Thursday morning as it weakens to 1005
mb, then merges with a low over the North Pole. The next low has
moved to Adak at 980 mb and will move to 200 nm west of St Paul
Island by Thursday morning. The low is moving a bit further west
than previous forecasts, and will move just west of the Gulf of
Anadyr by Thursday evening at 971 mb. The low will continue to the
northwest as it weakens over Siberia.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds already increasing on the
Northwest Arctic Coast and expect winds gusting to 85 mph at Cape
Lisburne elsehwere on the Northwest Coast gusts to 60 mph will
occur from Point Lay west. Strong gusty winds in the Western
Brooks Range along with some heavy snow west of Howard Pass. There
is a slight chance of Freezing Rain or Drizzle from Point Barrow
west as the low moves north across the Chukchi Sea and into the
Arctic. Gusty winds tonight in the Eastern Brooks Range near
passes as high pressure builds over the Upper Yukon Flats and
troughing digs east along over the Arctic Plains. Winds on the
Central and Eastern Arctic Coast becoming east to southeast at 10
to 25 mph. Temperatures warming to er

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong winds, Heavy Snow,
Freezing Rain, Freezing Drizzle, Blowing Snow, Drifting Snow,
Rain, followed by more of the same except the winds will not be as
strong with the next system as it moves a little more to the
northwest as it move across Chukotka. Heaviest snowfall will be on
the Seward Peninsula, while strongest winds will be around Point
Hope, Cape Lisburne, Diomede, and Wales. Near Blizzard conditions
expected on the outer Capes and St Lawrence Island as the lows
move through the area. Still some potential for coastal flooding,
but the threat has diminished based on the latest guidance.
Currently midnight Thursday to noon Friday at Gambell appears to
be the area with the highest potential, will continue to watch as
this develops. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in
effect for coastal areas. Very strong winds already occurring
along the coast will increase this evening peaking overnight.
Strongest winds will be near the Bering Strait with winds gusting
to 80 mph. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side until the
second low moves through, then cooling temperatures for a couple
days.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear to partly cloudy
continues for a couple more days. A decaying front will bring some
clouds east across the area, but they will not stick around long.
Some patchy morning fog and stratus in the Upper Yukon Flats.
Tanana Valley Jet sets up Thursday bringing some gusty east winds
to Delta Junction and vicinity with gusts to 35 mph. Generally,
high temperatures will continue in the teens to mid 30s across
the area after overnight low temperatures in the zero to 20 below
range.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft will weaken
Saturday as a weather front moves east across the state bringing a
chance of snow to the Interior. Ridging aloft rebuilds behind the
front Monday with a return to mostly clear conditions. Another
series of lows will move to and up the West Coast early next week
with a decaying front moving east across the state Wednesday
bringing a chance of snow to most areas.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ212.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB FEB 19