Blizzard Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

393 
WWAK41 PAFG 111658
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019


AKZ203-111800-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190211T1800Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, 
and Kuparuk
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the
Blizzard Warning. 


$$

AKZ201-111800-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190211T1800Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including the cities of Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, 
and Cape Lisburne
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 


$$

AKZ204-120300-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190212T0300Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Visibility less than a quarter 
  of a mile at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions at 
  times. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will cause areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow. 

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...6 AM to 6 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow means severe winter
weather conditions are expected. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.

$$

AKZ206-120300-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0011.190212T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including the cities of Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, 
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, 
  with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected. 

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...3 PM today to 6 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are expected. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible.

$$

AKZ205-120300-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190213T0000Z/
Northwestern Brooks Range-
Including the cities of Singiluk and Umiat
758 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with 
  localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected. 

* WHERE...Northwestern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very active weather continues over northern Alaska with ongoing
snowstorm weakening and pulling north over the norther portions of
the West Coast, northern portions of the Western Interior, and the
North Slope and a powerful storm moving to the northern Bering
Sea which will produce heavy snow and blowing snow over most of
the West Coast, Western Alaska, and the Central and Western Brooks
Range Monday and Tuesday.

Aloft at 500 hpa, an upper level ridge with north south axis
currently along the Alaska Canadian border will flatten as a
strong shortwave currently over the West Coast of Alaska pushes
east and north into the Ridge tonight and Monday with the
shortwave pushing east along a Point Barrow to Fairbanks to
Anchorage line by Monday morning and passes into Canada by Monday
evening. Ridging briefly builds back over the central interior
Monday night as a very strong shortwave moves northeast into the
central Bering Sea Monday morning and into the Gulf of Anadyr
Monday evening. The upper level low continues to track north and
east as an open wave Monday night and Tuesday over the southern
Chukchi Sea. Zonal flow sets up over much of northern Alaska.
On Tuesday Cold air advection pushes east through northern Alaska
with 850 mb temps dropping from minus 8 Tuesday morning to minus
18 below Wednesday and minus 22 on Thursday morning. Computer
models continue to indicate strong low level westerly winds
pushing into the western Interior Monday night and into the
central interior Tuesday morning as a strong front pushes through
the area. Will need to monitor highway summits in the interior for
strong and gusty winds and blowing snow on Tuesday. The strong
cold air advection will help bring the gusty winds aloft to the
surface with some snow and blowing snow possible even a valley
level over much of the interior.

On the surface, a 999 mb low currently located just south of Point
Hope with a front extending south along the West Coast will
slowly lift north and weaken tonight allowing the heavy snow and
blowing snow to come to an end just in time for another powerful
storm to move into the area. A 958 mb low currently 250 nm
southwest of Sheyma in the Western Aleutians will move rapidly
north and east to be located 300 nm southwest of St Lawrence
Island Monday morning as a 960 mb low and just northwest of St
Lawrence early Monday evening as a 970 mb low. The storm moves
through the Bering Strait late Monday evening and onto the western
North Slope Tuesday morning as a 980 mb low. The low continues to
move north and east over Prudhoe Bay Tuesday evening as a 986 mb
before moving into the high Canadian Arctic.

As the low approaches Alaska a strong front wrapped around the
low will approach the YK Delta early Monday morning and will
produce near blizzard conditions along the coast and heavy snow
and blowing snow inland in the Western Interior. The front will
move up the coast Monday producing near blizzard conditions and
very strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph as the front continues
to move north with near blizzard conditions expected to develop
by noon in Nome and by late afternoon in Kotzebue. Heavy snow is
expected again in the southwest upslope favored areas such as the
Western and Central Brooks Range as well as the uplands of the
Seward Peninsula north of Nome where another 6 to 12 inches of
snow are expected. Snow amounts and winds decrease as the front
pushes into the Western and Central interior with generally 3 to 5
inches of snow expected. Gusty westerly wind are expected as the
front passes and will likely produce significant blowing snow
over highway summit in the interior and may produce gusty winds
and some blowing snow at valley level in the central interior
Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings for blizzard conditions as well as
for heavy snow and blowing snow have been issued for much of the
West Coast and Western Interior as well as the favored upslope
areas of the Western and Central Brooks Range.

As the first low moves northeast over the North Slope tonight
winds and snow will increase to the east of Utqiagvik. Winds are
expected to gust to 45 mph and combined with light falling snow
will produce low visibilities. A Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow has been issued for zone 203. A very strong gradient
develops Monday morning over zone 204 near Bartar Island where
wind gusts to 60 mph will produce near blizzard conditions into
Monday evening. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for this
areas.

Winds and snow will increase again over the North Slope especially
along the Eastern Brooks Range Monday evening as the strong low in
the Bering Sea passes north through the Bering Strait and onto the
Western North Slope. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
Monday night and Tuesday for low visibilities in blowing snow for
zone 206.

The 12 model suite initialized several millibars to high on the
low pressure systems and too low on the high pressure systems
resulting in much more wind being manifest than was forecasted
especially the ongoing Tanana Valley Jet and gap winds through the
Alaska Range. Added in general around 5 knots to much of the wind
forecasts accordingly. Position and track of the synoptic scale
features remains reasonable with minimal spread through the work
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
As the strong low moves north through the Bering Sea strong
southwesterly winds will impact the West Coast Monday night into
Tuesday. Ice in Norton Sound will prevent the development of large
waves; however, this system will still cause elevated water
levels along the coast of Norton Sound, especially from Unalakleet
north (although exactly how high the water will get is uncertain
due to the current sea ice). The water may inundate and pond on
top of existing sea ice in Norton Sound and adjacent bays. In
addition, the winds may push some chunks of ice up onto the beach
in Norton Sound. We will continue to monitor this system.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ206.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC FEB 19