Blizzard Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

834 
WWAK41 PAFG 292309
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019


AKZ204-301715-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
209 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be very
  difficult. Wind chills to 50 below. West winds to 45 mph

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon Thursday. Winds will increase this evening
  with visibility falling to near zero. Winds will decrease very
  slowly Wednesday night and Thursday, and visibility will slowly
  improve Wednesday night and Thursday. Wind chills will become 
  very cold Wednesday night as temperatures fall. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting will
  occur. Cold wind chills to 50 below zero will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. 

$$

AKZ203-301715-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190131T0300Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
209 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Wind chills to 50 below. Winds gusting 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow, but visibilities are 
  expected to remain above 1 mile. 

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM Wednesday. The strongest winds will be this
  evening. The coldest winds chill be be late tonight through
  Wednesday. Winds will decrease Wednesday night. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting 30 mph will cause areas of
  blowing and drifting snow, but visibilities are expected to
  remain above 1 mile. Cold wind chills to 50 below zero will 
  cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

477 
WWAK41 PAFG 301311
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 AM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

AKZ203-310200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190131T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0013.190130T1311Z-190131T2200Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
411 AM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills as 
  cold as 50 below zero.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 1 PM Thursday. Wind chill values will improve 
  briefly this afternoon before decreasing again this evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-310200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T0700Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
411 AM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

774 
WWAK41 PAFG 302317
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

AKZ204-310030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T0700Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds are now decreasing. Visibility is expected to remain above
one half mile. 


$$

AKZ203-310030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190131T2200Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished and wind chills have become less severe.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
434 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm weather now over northern Alaska will see an abrupt
change to much colder weather over the next several days. A cold
front over Western Alaska will move south across the Interior Tue
and Wed with much colder air following behind it. This front is
causing gusty winds and low visibility blowing snow in the
Western Arctic Coast this evening, that will spread to the
Eastern Arctic Coast on Tue, as well as to the Passes of the Eastern
Brooks Range and Passes of the Alaska Range on Tue. Temperatures
in the teens and 20s below will fallow behind the front, with
wind chills to 50 below in zones 203 204 218 by Tue night.

Aloft...
A strong ridge aloft over Western Canada and Alaska will split as
over the next several days as a strong short wave makes its way
east through the ridge so that by Wed there is a ridge over
Western Alaska with a trough over the the Alcan Border area with
the pattern persisting into the weekend. Much colder temperatures
will accompany this trough over the North Slope and Eastern
Interior from Wed into the weekend, while the West Coast remains
near to above normal temperatures under the ridge.

The above mentioned short wave trough that now lies from
Wainwright to Bethel will move to Barter Island to Bethel by 3pm
Tue, and to Old Crow to Bethel by 3pm Wed, then dropping to Dawson
to Valdez by 3pm Thu. Much colder temperatures, with 850 MB temps
of -20C and colder, will accompany this trough over the North
Slope and Eastern Interior from Wed into the weekend. There is
snow along and east of the short wave that will be detailed below
with the surface arctic cold front.

Surface...
Strong high pressure from the Yukon of Canada to Banks Island
will persist tonight and then weaken on Tue.

An occluded front stretching from King Salmon to Fairbanks to
Inuvik will move to Inuvik to Denali by 3am Tue, to Dawson to
Talkeetna by 3pm Tue and then dissipate. Snow is now developing
along this front as a low in the Gulf of Alaska feeds moisture
northeast along the frontal boundary. Expect 2-4 inches of snow
along this front in most areas, with up to 9 inches in the Eastern
Alaska Range. There will be brief periods of freezing precip in
the Western and Central Interior this evening before the Arctic
Front moves in and cools the airmass completely below freezing.

A 1002 mb low 200 NM north of Point Barrow will move to 300 NM
north of Point Barrow as a 1007 mb low by 3am Tue, to 300 NM
north of Prudhoe Bay as a 1008 mb low by 3pm Tue, to 300 NM north
of Barter Island as a 1012 mb low by 3am Wed, and to 300 NM north
of Demarcation Point as a 1016 mb low by 3pm Wed, then slowly
weaken. West winds 25g35kt just south if this low over the North
Slope will spread east tonight and Tue. Blowing snow advisories
over zones 201 and 202 will end this evening, while blowing snow
issues will develop over zones 203 and 204 Tue.

A cold front stretching from this low to Deadhorse to the
Yukon Delta will move to Barter Island to Tanana to the Yukon
Delta by 3am Tue, to Demarcation Point to Livengood to the Yukon
Delta by 3pm Tue, to Inuvik to Dawson to the Yukon Delta by 3am
Wed, and to Northway to Denali to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Wed.
There will be several inches of snow along and east of the front,
with clouds decreasing west of the front. West winds 25g30kt
along the front over the North Slope will spread east tonight.
Winds will become north 25-35kt with blowing snow through Brooks
Range and Alaska Range Passes on Tue and Tue night along and
following the front.

A very strong low south of Shemya will move into the
southwest Bering Sea Tue, with another strong low moving to the
southwest Bering on Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. Similar solutions aloft through 3pm
Wed, then the ECMF and NAM are more aggressive than the GFS with
cold air advection over the Eastern Interior. At this time favor
the GFS, which eventually catches up with other models by Thu PM.

Models differ significantly on precip amounts in the SE Interior
on Tue. The NAM has 3 times more precip in Fairbanks on Tue than
the GFS or ECMF. At this time, favor the GFS as the NAM appears
way too high for a system approaching from the south over the
Alaska Range.

At surface at 18Z, models verify about 4 mb too weak on the low
northwest of Barrow and a bout 4 mb too weak on the high pressure
over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Otherwise initialize well. Result if
that the winds over the North Slope will be 3-5 kt stronger than
models indicate through Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 19