Blizzard Warning 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

220 
WWAK41 PAFG 010524
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
924 PM AKDT Thu Oct 31 2019


AKZ204-010630-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0023.000000T0000Z-191101T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
924 PM AKDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
548 AM AKDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Low continues to bring strong gusty winds to the
Arctic Coast with snow and blowing snow. Conditions will improve
from the west as the low moves east. High Surf around Utqiagvik
will settle down by this afternoon. Clearing skies on the West
Coast as high pressure builds over the area, but a low to the
south moving into Bristol Bay will sends some clouds north to the
Seward Peninsula and into the Southern Interior. Snow developing
in the Lower Yukon Delta and the Southern Interior as a weather
front moves to the Alaska Range tonight.

Models...The 31/00Z solutions are in good agreement and run to
run continuity in the short term has been pretty good. Solutions
continue to diverge beyond 60 hours or so. Surface solution
initialized very good. Stronger gusty winds around the Arctic low
are being handled better today so will lean toward the NAM
solution. Probabilistic ETSS still indicating non zero storm surge
values around Utqiagvik today with strong northwest winds. No
significant differences in the precipitation solutions as most
activity will be associated with the low in the Arctic.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing across the Arctic with a 516 dam
low 150 nm north of Oliktok Point moving east. Zonal flow over
the state south of the low, and ridging over the southwest
mainland and Gulf of Alaska. A 534 dam low is 100 nm south of
Nikolski. By this evening the low in the Arctic will be 150 nm
north of Kaktovik, and a 529 dam low will develop to the northwest
of the low in the Central Arctic. Zonal flow remains over most of
mainland Alaska. Ridging that was over the southwest mainland
will be cutoff as the low south of Nikolski moves to 50 nm north
of Cold Bay at 537 dam. Friday morning the low in the Arctic will
be 100 nm north of Demarcation Point with the zonal flow
persisting over mainland Alaska and ridging to the west over the
Central Arctic. The low near Cold Bay will move over King Salmon
as it merges into a weak trough developing over the West Coast.
The troughing over the West Coast will move across the state
Friday with the low dissipating south of the Alaska Range. Weak
ridging will move through the flow behind the trough followed by a
weak shortwave that will move across the state Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm has dug south
over the Interior and lies from Old Crow YT to Fairbanks to Anvik
to Golovin to Shishmaref this morning. The -10C isotherm will
start to slide north by Thursday morning and will be over the
Brooks Range by Thursday evening, then hangs over the area
through Saturday afternoon. The 0C isotherm will push north over
the southwest mainland by Friday morning, but stays south of the
Alaska Range through the weekend. The -10C isotherm will start
moving south Saturday and will lie from Dawson YT to Delta
Junction to Nenana to Point Hope by Sunday morning.

Surface...A 997 mb low is 150 nm northwest of Oliktok Point, and
will move to 100 nm north of Demarcation Point Friday morning
with trough extending northwest to a 1015 mb low 300 nm north of
Wrangel Island. By Saturday morning the low north of Wrangel
Island will move to 300 nm north of Wainwright with a trough
extending SE. High pressure will build S over the Beaufort Sea by
Sat morning. High pressure will hold over mainland Alaska.A 1026
mb high has moved over the Interior just east of Fairbanks this
morning with high pressure extending west over St Lawrence Island
to a 1021 mb high in the Northern Bering Sea. A 989 mb low has
moved to 200 nm south of Nikolski and a 998 mb low will develop
near Sand Point this morning. The lows will move into Bristol Bay
and merge this evening. A weather front associated with the low
will move north over the Gulf of Alaska to the Alaska Range
spreading snow north into the Southern Interior. The high pressure
over mainland Alaska will be pushed north over the Brooks Range
with a 1024 mb high over the Central Brooks Range and high
pressure extending west to a 1026 mb high over Siberia.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low north of Oliktok Point
continues to move east and strong gusty winds will continue along
and near the coast today, diminishing from the west. Low clouds
and snow with blowing snow will also continue. Visibility will
generally be above 1 mile except for the far Eastern Arctic Coast
where visibility will be around 1/2 mile for a good part of the
day. Winds will be gusting to around 45 mph for most coastal areas
east of Wainwright again today. Temperatures will be cooling a
few degrees the next couple days. Snow will continue across the
area with around 1 inch today, and another inch Friday. Surf
around Utqiagvik remains elevated, so the High Surf Advisory was
extended to 1 pm today.

West Coast and Western Interior...High pressure over the area.
Some stratus has moved over quite a bit of the area, but will be
clearing today. The low moving into Bristol Bay will send some
clouds and snow north into the Lower Yukon Delta and the Upper
Kuskokwim River Valley later today and it will continue through
most of Friday. Snowfall amounts will range from 1 to 3 inches by
the time it ends. Snow accumulation will generally be south of
Anvik. Winds will be variable to 10 mph for most areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some stratus and fog this morning
will be lifting and dissipating by the afternoon. Increasing
clouds from the southwest this evening with snow developing and
spreading northeast into Fairbanks and vicinity Friday morning.
Snow will generally be south of a line from Circle to Manley Hot
Springs to Anvik with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Winds light
and variable. Temperatures will be slightly cooler.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will build over
the northeast corner of the state with a 1042 mb high over the
Eastern Brooks Range while a 998 mb low will move to south of the
Alaska Peninsula. A front will move north over the West Coast
Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep cold air will dig southwest into the
Eastern and Central Interior Monday and Tuesday with low
temperatures falling into the single digits over much of the area.
Temperatures will be warming on the West Coast Tuesday and
Wednesday as a low moves northwest through the area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory for AKZ202.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB OCT 19