Blizzard Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

404 
WWAK42 PAFG 112249
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

AKZ207-121400-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190312T1500Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
249 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible.

* WHERE...Chukchi Sea Coast north of Kivalina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will cause
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of 
  the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

$$

AKZ213-121400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190312T2000Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
249 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Strong winds, heavy snow, and blowing snow occurring.
  Visibility will be near zero at times. Travel will be very
  difficult. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are occurring. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible.

$$

AKZ217-121400-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-190313T1400Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
249 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility one half mile
  or less at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ208-121400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-190313T0200Z/
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, and Red Dog Mine
249 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility one half mile
  or less at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

425 
WWAK42 PAFG 121156
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

AKZ207-122000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190312T1500Z/
/O.EXA.PAFG.WW.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-190313T0200Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
356 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected.
  Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch is expected.

* WHERE...Chukchi Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ213-122000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190312T2000Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
356 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of up to one 
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are occurring. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible.

$$

AKZ208-122000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-190313T0200Z/
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, and Red Dog Mine
356 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected.
  Damage to power lines is possible. Additional snow accumulations
  of up to 3 inches is expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chill as low as 
  40 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ217-122000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-190313T1400Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
356 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chill as low as 
  40 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
644 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low over Eastern Norton Sound will weaken in place through Tue.
This is causing light snow across much of the West Coast and
Western Interior today, that will spread northeast across the
Interior tonight and Tue. Brief freezing rain this AM southeast
of the Yukon Delta to White Mountain to Huslia will change to
mixed rain and snow by late morning, then change back to snow
tonight as a cold front moves east across the Interior

Expect 2-4 inches inches of snow today through Tue across much of
the West Coast and Interior, with 4-7 inches of snow in upslope
areas near the central Brooks Range including zones 217, 218 and
219.

High Pressure building north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska is
causing strong north winds of 40-60 mph through the Brooks Range
and along the Western Capes of the West Coast, resulting in near
blizzard conditions in blowing snow. Those conditions will
continue through Tue.

Aloft...
A long wave over the West Coast of Alaska will retrograde over the
Bering Sea Tue and Wed as a long wave ridge builds over NW Canada
and Northern Alaska. This will cause the weak flow aloft now over
Northern AK to become SW tonight and Tue, then become southerly
Late Tue into Wed. This will allow clouds and moisture now over
West Alaska to spread NE across northern AK tonight and Tue. The
southeast Interior will dry out again late Tue and Wed as weak
chinook flow develops.

Surface...
A 982 mb low over the MacKenzie River Delta will move east today.
An arctic cold front extends west from this low to Arctic Village
to Kotzebue to the Yukon Delta. Overrunning snow is occuring
along the Arctic Front.

High Pressure over the Chukchi Sea will build east to the Beaufort
Sea today through Tue. The pressure gradient between this high and
the low over the MacKenzie River Delta is causing NE winds 15-25
kt today along the Arctic Coast which will turn N and decrease
tonight as the low moves east and the gradient weakens. There is a
strong gradient along the Arctic Front causing N winds gusting to
40 mph through the Brooks Range today through Tue with low vsby in
blowing snow. This is also causing N winds gusting to 60 mph and
near Blizzard conditions from Point Lay to Point Hope, to the
Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Winds will decrease at Point
Lay later today, but will remain strong from POint Hope to Gambell
through Tue PM.

A 976 mb low low over Eastern Norton Sound will weaken in place
to 984 mb by 4pm Mon, and to 995 mb by 4pm Tue. An occluded front
stretching from this low to Eagle will move over the Northern
Interior this afternoon then gradually weaken. This is causing
snow over much of the West Coast and Western Interior which will
persist into tonight. There are areas of brief freezing rain
southeast of the Yukon Delta to White Mountain to Galena than
will switch to rain and snow late this morning and continue into
this evening.

South of this low center, the Arctic cold front will move east,
moving to Anvik this afternoon, to Bettles to Delta Junction by
4am Tue, and to Bettles to Eagle to Denali by 4pm Tue. Mixed
precip will change to all snow along and west of this front,
with snow spreading east to Fairbanks by midnight and to the
Alcan Border Tue. Will see 1-2 inches of snow across most of the
Interior through Tue, but will see 4-7 inches from this afternoon
through Late Tue over zones 217, 218 and 219 as fronts merge in
those areas.

A low now over the western Aleutians will move to the southeast
Bering Sea as a 985 mb low by 4am Tue, then persist in place
through Wed. This will spread rain and snow to zones 214 and 215
Tue afternoon, with snow spreading north to the Seward Pen Tue
night. Expect another several inches of snow with Tue PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft, models initialize well and show similar solutions through
Wed, with slight differences showing up in the second half of the
week. Precipitation fields differ some, with the NAM having less
areal coverage than the GFS or ECMF today in NW AK. Given that the
GFS and ECMf Precip covers a wider area this morning that is
closer to where precip is actually occuring, favor the GFS and
ECMF precip for areal coverage.

At the surface, models all verify 3 to 4 mb too weak on the
surface low near Aniak, and 2-3 mb to weak on the low near
Inuvik. This is causing winds to be a few kt stronger than models
indicate this morning in NE AK and along the West Coast, but with
lows weakening today expect differences to even out by this
afternoon. Otherwise, models have very similar solutions at the
surface through Tue PM, with differences showing up Tue night and
Wed on low in the Gulf of AK. At this time will use the NAM
solution for Tue night and Wed as it is in the middle of the GFS
and ECMF solutions at that time regarding low strength and
location.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 19