Storm Warning 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

951 
FZAK51 PAFC 151159
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160115-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 mb low will move to 100 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sat 
morning then it will move inland, passing over Kodiak Island, Sat 
night. The associated front will move into the northern Gulf Fri 
afternoon and intensify Fri night. The front will then weaken Sat 
afternoon. A second front will move into the southern Gulf Sun 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-160115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt except E 45 kt near the coast. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt early Saturday morning.
Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Near the coast, E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30
kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160115-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines
Head. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160115-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas building to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt
early Saturday morning. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160115-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160115-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160115-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160115-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160115-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160115-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160115-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160115-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft early building to 16
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 12 ft this
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers and 
snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters
building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160115-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

198 
FZAK51 PAFC 152324
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161200-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 mb low 370 nm Southeast of Chignik tracks over Kodiak Island
to Kamishak Bay at 985 mb then inland for Sat night. Its front 
pushes over the Gulf through Sun afternoon. A 982 mb North Pacific
low moves along the front to 145 nm Southeast of Kodiak City at 
985 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-161200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to
30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161200-
Resurrection Bay-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161200-
Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161200-
Port Valdez-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161200-
Valdez Narrows-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161200-
Valdez Arm-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161200-
Passage Canal-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161200-
Barren Islands East-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161200-
Chiniak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161200-
Marmot Bay-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161200-
Shelikof Strait-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161200-
Kachemak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The dominate feature is a vertically stacked storm force low that
is spinning over the western Gulf of Alaska. Several shortwaves
are present within the flow around the low at the upper levels;
the most notable is stretched over Southcentral. As the surface
low migrates westward over the Barren Islands, it is producing
some mild convection which is aiding in widespread precipitation.
Cold air wrapping around the low is keeping many areas under snow,
especially over the inland areas. In juxtaposition, the coastal
areas, being impacted by warmer sea surface temperatures, are
sticking to a rain or rain-snow mix. Generalized east-
southeasterly flow is predominate in the northern Gulf which is
creating gusty gap winds through favored passes and along Turnagain
Arm. A strong northeast to southwest pressure gradient between the
low currently near the Barren Islands and a ridge extending across
the Copper River Basin is also driving a northeasterly surface
wind out of the Mat-Su valleys and a down inlet flow along Cook
Inlet. For the Anchorage Bowl, the northerly winds are more
relaxed for the moment as the Turnagain Arm winds bend south, away
from town and the core of the strongest Mat-Su winds remain to the
north.

A second less dominate feature is a low that is stationed over
the northern Bering. This low is is extending a trough over the
eastern Bering. This trough is associated with an arm of the jet
stream that is northwesterly oriented at 30,000 ft. A weak
occluded front, aligned with the trough, is spread over the
eastern Bering and Aleutians. This front is creating gusty winds
and precipitation through the eastern Aleutians, AK-Pen and the
southwestern coastline. Elsewhere in southwest, conditions remain
fairly quiet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good agreement through the first 48
hours as the low in the Gulf moves inland over Southcentral today.
The next system is a Pacific low and associated front that are
advancing toward the Gulf on Friday. With this low, there is model
variability which, in turn, creates discrepancies in the
solutions as the storm develops. The main difference lies with the
track of the Pacific low as it moves into the Gulf on Saturday.
The GFS is the quickest and most westerly solution while the NAM,
and Canadian are in lock-step further east and slower. The
differences in low position and pace is creating some uncertainty,
especially in regards to winds in the northern Gulf on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... General VFR conditions will persist with ceilings
expected to remain at or above 5,000ft AGL through the TAF
package. Low level wind shear (LLWS) is again possible this
morning preceding frontal passage. By 21z, the front is expected
to lift north across Anchorage, bringing the southeasterly
Turnagain Arm winds back over the airport complex. Scattered
showers are also possible at this time, lingering into the
evening, but are not expected to reduce ceilings or visibility.
LLWS is possible again tomorrow morning in advance of the next
frontal systems as southeasterly winds aloft increase with surface
winds remaining out of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
An impressive, tightly wrapped occluded low continues to spin
just south of the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. East of the
low center, strong winds and very heavy precipitation continue
this morning. Several feet of snow have already fallen through
Turnagain Pass and more is on the way this morning. However,
temperatures are slowly warming across the area as the warm air
right around the center of the low moves in. This will limit
additional accumulations to some extent. The other impressive
facet of this system has been the gusty east to southeast winds.
Mountain top winds will continue to blow between 60 and 70 mph
this morning before slowly tapering off this afternoon. Winds out
of the Matanuska Valley down through Anchorage will continue
early today as long as the low center remains to our south. But as
the storm lifts through, expect winds to shift out of the
southeast and bring another round of gusts to these locations.

With little reprieve, another system is already on track to impact
many of the same areas heading into the day Fri. The recent model
runs have come into better agreement that this will actually be
another consolidated low pressure center (vice just an open
shortwave). This means it will have some of the same offshore
gradient as the current system. This gradient serves to reinforce
some cooler air from inland areas. So even though the system
itself will sling a warm airmass towards us with 850 mb (5,000')
temperatures rising to -2 to -5 degrees Celsius, cold air will do
its best to hang on at the surface. So once again, it will be a
battle between how much above freezing the coastal locales will
get and thus, how much snow they can accumulate. Certainly places
like Turnagain Pass and Valdez are in for another round of snow,
but the exact accumulations still need to be ironed out. Cordova
will also be right on the edge of rain and snow. With ample QPF
forecasted for them, we will be monitoring that situation closely.

For Anchorage and other inland population centers heading towards
the end of the week, expect more warm, windy, and mostly dry
conditions. Once again, east to southeast winds coming over the
Chugach and Kenai Mountains will create downslope drying. Gusty
winds will ramp up again from Palmer through Anchorage, but the
strongest winds will once again be confined to the higher
elevations and the Anchorage Hillside.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave pattern features an elongated trough from the Gulf Of
Alaska to NE Russia. Looking at 500 mb, there is a negatively
tilted trough axis from the western Alaska Range bisecting the
Gulf Of Alaska. There is second upper level perturbation between
the Pribilofs and St Matthew Island with another negatively tilted
trough axis extending towards the AKPEN. Then there is another
upper level disturbance north of Kamchatka with the trough axis
extending into the northern Bering. At the surface, there really
isn't an organized frontal boundary, just a few troughs which is
seen in the latest ASCAT/Advanced scatterometer pass and in the
isobars at MSL pressure of the models. And of course wrap around
moisture potential from the storm in the Gulf Of Alaska which will
be a factor later in the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

There is a low southwest of Attu that will advect warm moist air
towards the western and central Aleutians. But the models keep the
actual surface low south of the chain. Meanwhile, over the
northern Bering there is a surface low between St Matthew and St.
Lawrence Island and the models just have this low wobbling and
swaying over the Bering as it continues to weaken. Looking at the
1000MB- 850MB thickness values, cold air will remain steadfast
from NE Russia across much of the Bering and into Western Alaska.
Cold air over warm water is inherently unstable, so expect more
convection/showers over the Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...

Main impacts will be located in the northern Gulf of Alaska with
the next round of low pressure on Saturday. Gale force winds and
20 foot seas are expected in the north Gulf of Alaska, with gale
force winds in the lower Cook Inlet as well. Confidence is high in
this forecast. However confidence drops after this system moves
through due to lack of model consistency. As of now, it looks like
we can still expect some small craft to gale force wind along the
coast through Monday.

The Bering Sea is expected to remain generally quiet with continued
weak northerly flow on Saturday. Some weak areas of low pressure
are then expected to move through, but will not be strong enough
to cause much of an impact.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Saturday through Wednesday)...

Issues with model consistency continues to be the storyline for
the long term. We are still expecting a longwave trough to be over
the Bering Sea, with weak areas of low pressure circulating
through the trough. Southcentral AK will continue maintain the
pattern of warm and wet weather from a series of lows tracking
north through the Gulf of Alaska. However, models are not near
consistent enough to be able to forecast for individual weather
systems both in the Bering and southcentral for the extended
forecast. Thus, a blend of models continues to be used for a
consensus approach and the particulars of each system will have to
be dealt with when they enter the short term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 125 130 139 140 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB