Storm Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

077 
FZAK52 PAFC 061236
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070200-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 955 mb low 130 nm southwest of Shemya Wed morning moves to 200 nm 
northwest of Adak at 956 mb by Thu morning and then to 210 nm west of
Shemya at 972 mb by Fri morning. A front approaches the western 
Aleutians Fri morning associated with a 960 mb North Pacific low.

$$

PKZ150-070200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070200-
Bristol Bay-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070200-
Unalaska Bay-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 30 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 40 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 38 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070200-
Adak to Kiska-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 22 ft. Pacific side, seas
27 ft building to 41 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft Bering side...46 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...40 ft Pacific side.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070200-
Kiska to Attu-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 24 ft. Pacific side,
seas 23 ft building to 35 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Bering side, NW wind 30 kt. Pacific side, NW wind 45 kt
becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 25 ft Bering side...37 ft
Pacific side.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...29 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
336 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt
increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray N of Saint Matthew
Island. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

320 
FZAK52 PAFC 070011
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071300-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong 954 mb low 65 nm west of Kiska moves to 100 nm northwest of
St Paul Island at 971 mb and dissipates Fri afternoon. Its front 
sweeps into Western Alaska Fri afternoon. A 958 mb low 435 nm south 
of Attu Fri morning moves to 165 nm south of Kiska at 956 mb by Fri 
afternoon. Its front pushes over the Aleutians into the Bering 
through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-071300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071300-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071300-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 30 ft after
midnight. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 40 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 40 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071300-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft Bering side...46 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 23 ft. Pacific side, seas
41 ft subsiding to 34 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 20 ft. Pacific side,
seas 29 ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071300-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Bering side, NW wind 30 kt. Pacific side, NW wind 45 kt
becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 24 ft Bering side...37 ft
Pacific side.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...30 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 60N. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-071300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An impressive front is continuing to move very slowly eastward
over Southwest and into Southcentral this morning associated with
a stalled low that has moved into the eastern Bering. This front
is pushing up against the weakening ridge pattern that has shifted
slightly eastward over the Gulf and towards the Alcan border.
Precipitation observed with this front fell as snow, rain, and a
mix depending on the location over the AKPEN and coastal areas of
Southwest overnight and continuing to push inland this morning.
Over the western Bering and Aleutians, a strong 120 kt jet is in
place stretching from Shemya to Adak. A North Pacific low situated
south of the western Aleutians will be the weather feature to pay
attention to in the short term forecast. The most recent
ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer pass has already detected both gale
and storm force winds from this new cyclone.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The GFS, NAM and ECMWF are in lock step with the major synoptic
features through 00z Thursday. By 12z Thursday, some divergence
manifests in the models regarding the low in the Bering. The NAM
being the middle ground between the GFS and the ECMWF solutions.
Ergo, the NAM has emerged as the model of choice for the short
term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A cloud deck
at 5,000 ft has been observed at Merrill Field and scattered at
5,000 ft at PANC at 12:53z or 3:53 AM AST. It's possible that
this layer will actually become broken or overcast at PANC this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dominant ridging that has been over Southcentral Alaska will
slowly track east and weaken through tonight. Southerly flow on
the western side of the ridge will bring moisture off the Gulf,
resulting in precipitation to southern and eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Kodiak Island and areas west of Cook Inlet. Most of
these locations will see snow, but some southerly locations look
to mix with, or become, rain. Tonight, a trough will move in over
Kodiak Island from the west bringing heavier precipitation to the
area. It will then track through Southcentral Alaska on Wednesday
bringing a chance of snow to the Anchorage Bowl area. After the
trough pushes east Wednesday night precipitation will diminish,
however, some light precipitation will remain around coastal
locations and areas west of Cook Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...

A weak cold front will slowly track eastward through today aided
by an upper level jet. Snow accumulations up to 4 inches are
possible across interior regions of Southwest Alaska that stay all
snow and below freezing, with mixed precipitation or rain
continuing along the coast. Partial clearing is expected Wednesday
morning as a weak ridge builds in behind the front. As such, weak
onshore winds combined with the moisture from the previous system
may cause some patchy fog to develop late tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...

A strong low will move southwest of Attu this afternoon.
Confidence is high that associated storm force winds and high
seas will track towards the east across the western Aleutians this
evening. As the low occludes, the winds along the leading front
will diminish to gales, but will continue tracking into Bristol
Bay through Wednesday. A second area of stronger storm force
winds and very high seas will redevelop south of the low over the
western Aleutians Wednesday evening. Winds will gradually diminish
and seas subside overnight into Thursday as the surface low
weakens.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

On Thursday, a storm force low tracks across the southern Bering
at 960 mb then fills quickly on Friday as it moves south of the
Pribilof Islands to the Alaska Peninsula. The next front pushes to
the western Aleutians Friday morning as a North Pacific low races
toward the Bering. The low along the southeastern waters
dissipates Friday night as the other powerful low moves toward
Kiska at 951 mb. This storm is expected to take a similar
southerly track through Saturday; however, it is expected to stay
organized as it tracks eastward. The low center does move slightly
slower as the other eastern Bering system breaks down over
Bristol Bay. The new storm center moves to near Adak at 960 mb
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast beginning Thursday is an active pattern
with a storm system tracking across the southern Bering...pushing
a front across the southern mainland and the Gulf through early
Saturday. The next system to move across the Bering enters the
western Aleutian Chain on Friday night, taking a similar track
through Sunday morning. Models are generally in good agreement
with the overall synoptic pattern; however, there are important
differences with each new model run on the evolution of the low's
track over the weekend. The blends of the ensemble ECMWF and GFS
were used for updates today which continues to advertise a wetter
and windier pattern. The highest uncertainty on this low is how
far east the low tracks. Previous model runs all indicated that
the low would lift north across the eastern Bering...and now they
are showing either a triple point low developing in the Gulf or
the storm system remaining on an easterly track. Either solution
brings a forthcoming pattern change heading to the beginning of
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 179 185 412 413 414.
 		 Storms 175 176 177 178 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH/PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP/JPW
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH