Storm Warning 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

795 
FZAK62 PAFC 051252
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060200-
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front approaches the western Aleutians Tue morning. The
associated low moves to 51N 173E at 957 mb by Wed morning and then
to 55N 179W at 957 mb by Thu morning.  

$$

PKZ411-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 060035
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061400-
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front moves into the western Bering and Aleutians by Wednesday 
morning, with the low reaching 52N 174E by late morning at 954 mb.
This low then moves to 52N 178E at 956 mb late Wednesday evening,
then moves to 55N 173W at 973 mb late Thursday evening. A new 
front moves into the southwestern Bering and western Aleutians on 
Friday.

$$

PKZ411-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 17 ft after midnight. Rain
and snow.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in
the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.  Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

907 
FZAK62 PAFC 061228
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070145-
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 mb low at 51N 172E Wed morning moves to 54N 179E at 956 mb by 
Thu morning and then to 56N 176W at 972 mb by Fri morning. A front 
approaches the western Aleutians Fri morning associated with a 960 
North Pacific low.

$$

PKZ411-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 22 ft.  Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

909 
FZAK62 PAFC 061230 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070145-
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 mb low at 51N 172E Wed morning moves to 54N 179E at 956 mb by 
Thu morning and then to 56N 176W at 972 mb by Fri morning. A front 
approaches the western Aleutians Fri morning associated with a 960
mb North Pacific low.

$$

PKZ411-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 22 ft.  Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

323 
FZAK62 PAFC 070003
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071400-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong 954 mb low at 52N 176E moves to 58N 172W at 971 mb and 
dissipates Fri afternoon. Its front sweeps into Western Alaska for
Fri afternoon. A 958 mb low near 47N 170E Fri morning moves to 
50N 177E at 956 mb by Fri afternoon. Its front pushes over the 
Aleutians into the Bering through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The mature low that has been the main weather producer over the
past day continues to weaken this morning as it pushes into the
northern Bering. The associated occluded front has pushed eastward
and made its way over Southwest and the AKPEN. Southerly flow
with strong gusts continue as the front moves over land near the
Kuskokwim Delta coast. The latest ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer
pass continues to detected gales over the Bering in association
with this low. A ridge setup over Southcentral and the Gulf has
amplified as it has shifted slightly eastward since yesterday. Fog
has settled in overnight along the Kenai Peninsula, reducing the
visibility. Mostly overcast skies remain under this ridge
stretching from Kodiak Island to Cordova, with temperatures
hovering around the freezing mark for many locations in Southwest.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The NAM12 and the GFS both initialized well when comparing the
surface low position from the ASCAT which was NE of Kamchatka to
the progged surface low position at the commensurate model time.
The NAM, GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the major
synoptic features through 00z Thursday. An additional confidence
boost comes from the GFS ensemble members which are tightly
clustered with the current Bering low and the next cyclone coming
up from the NW Pacific. There do appear to be some timing issues
with the next precipitation shield moving up Cook Inlet on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The latest GOES Nighttime microphysics clearly has an area
of fog and low stratus over portions of Cook Inlet, Knik Arm and
Turnagain Arm. Cigs are going to be an issue this morning. As of
13Z or 4 AM AST the ceiling at PANC was SCT006 BKN040 OVC070, at
Kenai it was BKN024 and at Merrill Field it was OVC008. The light
winds will persist. At times, the cigs at PANC will drop below
VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak upper level ridge will be over Southcentral today. This
will keep conditions dry, but with some variable cloudiness. A
trough will approach the area from the west tonight. This system
is slowing down as it moves into the ridge. Precipitation chances
will move into Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula by
late evening, then spread northward across the Kenai Peninsula and
into the Susitna valley on Tuesday. The flow aloft will be almost
directly from the south, so the Anchorage area and the Matanuska
Valley will likely remain dry. The front edge of the
precipitation will stall Tuesday night with precipitation chances
limited to areas from Prince William Sound westward, even as the
upper level trough continues to move eastward and weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A stalled front over southwest Alaska, Bristol Bay, and the
Alaska Peninsula continues to bring precipitation to the Kuskokwim
Delta this morning. It is mainly a rain/snow mix, with rain
further south and west along the coast, and snow further north.
Any snow is falling into temps at or a degree or so above
freezing, so no significant accumulations are expected. The front
is expected to remain stationary through the day, but as a low
tracks north between the Pribilofs and Nunivak Island this
afternoon and evening, a slow eastward motion will resume, along
with intensifying precipitation rates across many of the same
areas. The focus of the precipitation will move east during the
day on Tuesday with a continuous southerly flow along the front
largely keeping precipitation in the liquid form. Gusty winds are
expected through the Kamishak Gap and Lake Iliamna Monday night
into the day Tuesday. As a secondary cold front follows behind the
stationary one over southwest Alaska Tuesday night, that extra
push should help get the steadier precipitation mainly over the
Alaska Range by Wednesday morning. Much of southwest Alaska dries
out for the day on Wednesday, but the next front bringing more
precipitation follows right behind it Wednesday night. Currently
it appears that since it will be replacing a colder air mass than
the one over the area now, expect significantly more of Southwest to
be seeing snow with that next front late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The stalled front over the eastern Bering will slowly move east
later today as a low develops near or over the Pribilofs this
afternoon. Once the low moves west of Nunivak Island this evening,
the westerly winds behind the low will push the front into
Bristol Bay and southwest Alaska. The remainder of the Bering is
under a showery regime with broad westerly winds across the
southern Bering and Aleutians. This pattern will continue over the
central and eastern Bering through Tuesday.

The next strong low will barrel towards the western Aleutians
Tuesday afternoon. The low will produce another round of storm
force winds across the western and central Aleutians Tuesday
evening. The center of the low will slowly cross the western
Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, as the leading front moves into
the eastern Aleutians and the Pribilofs. The leading front will
weaken to gale force winds, but to the south of the center of the
low Wednesday evening, storm force winds with hurricane force
gusts are expected over the western and central Aleutians.
Fortunately those worst conditions are expected to mainly stay
from Adak west as the low pressure center moves into the western
Bering. The leading front will move into the eastern Bering and
approach the southwest coast late Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
A storm force front enters the western Bering on Wednesday with
the surface low deepening to 952 mb as it crosses into the
southern Bering Thursday morning. The low then fills rapidly and
is absorbed by the next powerful North Pacific storm which moves
across the Chain by Friday afternoon. This fast paced storm pushes
its front to the eastern Bering by late Friday. Monitor this
system as it is expected to bring significant winds and waves
during the second part of the week as the subtropical jet noses
toward the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast beginning Wednesday marks the beginning
of a synoptic pattern shift that breaks down the upper level split
flow pattern...where the ridge is currently dominant over Yukon
and Alcan border. This change is onset due to the combination of
strong storms moving along the Bering while the subtropical jet
streak noses to the Alaska Peninsula toward the end of the week.
The forthcoming changes in the storm pattern will bring higher
chances for precipitation across the southern mainland and
surrounding waters along with gusty winds as the storm generally
tracks to the Southwest coast at the end of the week and pushes
its front eastward next weekend.

Models are in good agreement with this overall synoptic shift;
therefore, a blend of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles were used to
make extended updates today.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH/PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH