Storm Warning 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

167 
FZAK62 PAFC 020026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021415-
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 47N 164E Fri afternoon moves to 52N 169E at 956 mb
by Sat afternoon and then to 58N 171E at 967 mb by Sun afternoon.  
Its front moves to the Central Aleutians by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 25 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 9 to 17 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 12 to 24 ft
in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Fri Mar 1 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

561 
FZAK62 PAFC 021255
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030215-
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 50N 166E moves into Kamchatka Mon morning. Its front
moves across the Aleutians and Bering through Mon morning. A North
Pacific low moves north along the front to 52N 168W at 1012 mb by 
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 32 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 13 to 20 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 14 to 21
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

282 
FZAK62 PAFC 030014
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031430-
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front over the central Aleutians will move over the
eastern Bering and dissipate Sun night. A front associated with a 956
mb Kamchatka low at 52N 169E will move along the western Bering
through Mon morning. Weak low pressure persists in the Bering
through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 PM AKST Sat Mar 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Thu Feb 28 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge pattern that has been holding in place over
mainland Alaska for the past week is finally starting to weaken
and shift slowly east. A large upper level trough supplied with
cold air from Siberia continues over the Bering and Aleutians,
supporting a vertically stacked storm force low tracking towards
the northern Bering. The associated front is progressing eastward
from the eastern Aleutians/Bering towards the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska coast this afternoon with a long fetch of
moisture being brought up from the North Pacific. Dry, sunny
weather persists over Southcentral Alaska with offshore gap winds
diminishing in response to the movement and weakening of the
ridge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in good agreement in the short term,
however, they start to diverge on Saturday over the Gulf. The
NAM/Canadian keep a stronger ridge/trough pattern with a surface
low forming near Kodiak, which the GFS/EC keep a weaker solution
with a broad trough of low pressure over the Gulf. With either
solution, cloud cover and increased chances of precip will return
to Kodiak and the Southcentral coast. Over the Bering, models
agree that a storm force low will be the dominate pattern moving
into Saturday. A NAM/GFS blend was used for the forecast for both
the east and west domains.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will continue as ridging persists over the
area. Patchy fog will be possible again around sunrise Friday,
however, with the dry air mass in place, any fog that does form
should be shallow and only last for an hour or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the area began to split apart today
with one portion of the ridge moving into the Arctic Ocean on
Friday. The other portion will push south into the southern Gulf
by Friday night. This continues to leave Southcentral with mostly
clear skies and some local patchy late night and morning fog. By
late Friday night an upper level trough will begin to approach the
area from the west, bringing increasing clouds to Kodiak Island.
The clouds should begin to filter into the Cook Inlet region on
Saturday but any potential precipitation will be relegated to
Kodiak Island and the north Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...(Thursday
night through Saturday afternoon)

The remnants of a front have pushed eastward, lifting over
Southwest Alaska. This has brought gusty southerly flow along the
coast. Precipitation will eventually spread in this evening
falling mostly as rain over the AKPEN while further north over the
Kuskokwim River Valley, a rain/snow mix is likely. As the front
continues to weaken and move inland, gusty winds along the coast
will eventually diminish by early Friday morning. Similarly,
precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east through
Saturday morning. Fairly calm and quiet weather conditions are in
store for Southwest through Saturday evening, before another front
associated with a storm force Bering low approaches from the west
for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
(Thursday night through Saturday afternoon)

Although the synoptic pattern remains the same as earlier in the
week, calmer conditions are in store for the Bering for Friday. A
departing low to the north will exit the Bering late this evening,
leaving behind westerly flow with generally colder air moving in.
This will allow for a few snow showers over the Bering ahead of a
weak ridge that attempts to build Friday afternoon. Meanwhile
further west, a warm front associated with a storm force low
approaches the western Aleutians Friday evening, packing a swath
of southerly gales with embedded storm force winds. Although the
low center is positioned well west of Attu Island, its front will
progress eastward, reaching the central Aleutians by Sat
afternoon. Strong gusty winds are expected with this front, and
not unlike the previous storms, ample moisture will accompany this
system. This will allow for precipitation to fall mostly as rain,
however with colder air in place ahead of the front, a rain/snow
mix is possible across the western and central Aleutians for
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A weakening front will bring southeasterly gales and higher seas
to the central Aleutians (generally west of Cold Bay) while upper
end gale to storm force southwesterly winds will move over the
far western Bering near Attu on Sunday. Winds will gradually
diminish to sub gales for the entire region Monday through Tuesday
morning as the associated low weakens and departs over Siberia.
Confidence is high that a broad, strong low will approach the
western Aleutians Tuesday evening, likely leading to potential
storm force winds and high seas by Wednesday.

The ridge that has been in place for several days over the Gulf is
expected to break down as a trough moves over the region Sunday.
However, sub gales are still expected to persist through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Moderate precipitation will track across the central and eastern
Aleutians Sunday into Monday ahead of a weak cold front. The front
will reach southwest Alaska by at least Monday afternoon and has
the potential to bring significant accumulating snowfall to the
region. GFS is currently the most aggressive model and we are
leaning towards this solution given recent run-to-run consistency
compared against the ECMWF. Also of note is that the moisture
associated with this system is initially being advected from
nearly 2000 miles south in the Pacific and thus would also merit
higher snowfall totals. A broad, strong low will move into the
western Bering on Wednesday with moderate to locally heavy rain
tracking across the Aleutians through Thursday. Model agreement
timing is poor beyond then, however the system could bring more
snow to southwest Alaska by late-week.

As mentioned above, the fair weather that has been in place over
Southcentral the past week will give way to a more active pattern
next week. A trough will track over the region Sunday likely
bringing overcast conditions for much of the day. At this point,
confidence is moderate to high that given the dry conditions, snow
will be unlikely for most locations, with the exception of light
snow over the mountains and the North Gulf Coast. A weak cold
front associated with a low south of Siberia will amplify a ridge
over Southcentral on Monday and bring fair skies throughout the
day. This front will move into the region by Tuesday into
Wednesday with the GFS and Canadian models most aggressive with
potential accumulating snowfall through Wednesday. We expect ECMWF
to follow suit in the coming days. The pattern is expected to
repeat itself with a ridge bringing generally fair skies Thursday
and a trough bringing possible precipitation to the area by late
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 185.
		 Storm 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO/DK
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP/KVP