Storm Warning 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

711 
FZAK52 PAFC 150052
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151345-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 mb low 280 nm southwest of Adak will move to the northern 
Bering at 957 mb Fri afternoon. The associated front will persist 
over the Bering through Sat morning. A 997 mb North Pacific low will 
move to 170 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor Sat morning then it will 
move near the eastern Aleutians at 964 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151345-
Bristol Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151345-
Unalaska Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SE wind 30 
kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas building to 15 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas building to 21 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151345-
Adak to Kiska-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific 
side. Snow showers and widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151345-
Kiska to Attu-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers and widespread
rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming SE wind 25 kt. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt early increasing to 50 kt. Seas in ice free 
waters 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23
ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

133 
FZAK52 PAFC 151259
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160200-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 964 mb low 300 nm northwest of Attu will deepen to 959 mb as it
tracks north to 250 nm west of Saint Matthew Island this afternoon.
A front in the central Bering will reach the Southwest Alaska 
coast this afternoon. A Pacific low moves to 150 nm south of Adak 
at 1000 mb Saturday morning, then to 70 nm south of Kipnuk at 995 
mb Sunday morning. A third low, around 970 mb, approaches Shemya 
from the southwest on Sunday.

$$

PKZ150-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160200-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow changing to rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160200-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160200-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160200-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Synoptically, there are three main features aloft. The first is a
trough that is digging southeastward over the Gulf of Alaska. At
the base of the trough is a vertically stacked low in the
southeastern Gulf. The flow around the trough is advecting cold
air over the western Gulf, western mainland and AK-Pen. The second
feature is an amplified ridge that is building over the central
Bering and Aleutians. The third aspect of the pattern is a
deepening vertically stacked low sitting just to the west of the
Aleutian chain. Cold air is wrapping around this Kamchatka low,
and a warm tongue is pushing over the central Aleutians (ahead of
the system) from the North Pacific. This low sits in the left exit
region of the jet where winds are approaching 120 kts at 30,000
ft. The jet is meridional with the highest wind speeds
northwesterly oriented over the AK-Pen and Bristol Bay.

At the surface, offshore flow in Southcentral is increasing winds
through the northern Gulf coast and western Gulf. Northerly flow
is advecting cold, dry air at the surface into Southcentral,
causing temperatures to drop and keeping precipitation limited.
Most of the activity is present in the southwest as strengthening
front moves over the western Aleutians. This front is on the
leading edge of the 956 mb surface Kamchatka low that is skirting
the western edge of Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with handling the active
weather pattern through the end of the week, so only minor
changes were made using NAM data for Southcentral and the Gulf and
GFS for the Southwest and Bering. Good run to run consistency
through Friday has led to greater confidence on the timing of the
front moving across the Bering and Southwest. There is still
uncertainty on the track and organization of this front as it
moves to Southcentral on Saturday. All 12Z operational models are
in sync on developing a surface low along the western gulf early
Saturday morning, however they appear a bit aggressive on breaking
down the amplifying ridge. Kept the inherited forecast mainly
intact for Saturday; however, precipitation may need to be trended
down if the ridge holds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions prevail through Thursday afternoon. Northerly
flow could be gusty early this evening, then again beginning late
Thursday morning.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Wednesday
night through Friday)...
High pressure and fair weather will continue for the next couple
of days in southcentral AK. Temperatures will continue to cool
gradually with northerly flow bringing in cold air from the
Arctic. Cold air and high winds will continue to push off shore as
well; this phenomena is being induced by the strong low moving
through the Gulf of Alaska and the high pressure ridge to our
west. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east but overall
not much change in the weather for all of southcentral AK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A ridge of high pressure that has brought fair conditions to much
of Southwest today will continue moving inland through early
Thursday. A front associated with a Bering low lifts over
Southwest Thursday morning, bringing gusty south to east winds and
accumulating snow. Along the northern Kuskokwim Delta coast,
winds combined with snow will create limited visibility at times.
We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for that area for
Thursday.

By Friday morning, a second front associated with a strong 950 mb
Bering low lifts inland over Southwest, bringing another round of
southerly flow and a chance for mixed rain and snow across the
Southwest coast. Warm air advection will allow for precipitation
to fall mostly as rain over the AKPEN through Fri afternoon. We
will continue to monitor these systems for potential coastal
hazards through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The battle will rage on over the Bering Sea. The area is ripe for
cyclogenesis due to a strong baroclinic zone in the low levels
and an impressive 150 kt upper level (30,000') jet over the North
Pacific. So while the low from last night is just about (or has
just) reached peak intensity, another near storm-force low will
move in later this period to take its place. First, tonight's low
will track over the Western Bering as it reaches full maturity.
Its associated front will elongate across the entire Bering Sea
before reaching the West Coast early Thu morning. As the front
slides through, expect storm-force southeast winds ahead of it and
then another round of storm-force southwest winds behind it.
There is a healthy amount of precipitation right along the front,
but most of it will fall as rain with some decent warm air
advection. Behind the front, cold air will plow through leaving
all locations open to numerous snow showers.

The next system is due to take shape near Atka and Adak by Thu
afternoon. Originally it was thought that this would be a weaker
secondary system wrapping around the parent low near Kamchatka.
But models came in today and showed this low actually potentially
becoming the dominant low in the area. With that, they all trended
stronger on both winds and waves. We trended the forecast in that
direction to an extent, but did not go as bullish as the GFS
(strongest). Either way, this system intensifies rapidly Fri
morning over the Central Bering. South to southeast winds could
bring some hurricane force gusts back to the marine waters. It
will sling another warm front right at the West Coast by late Fri
as it follows a similar track to the system earlier this week
(Monday).

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...
Winds will gradually diminish and seas subside through the day
Saturday over the western Bering as a low departs northward over
Siberia. Generally expect sub-gale force winds for the Bering as a
weak ridge builds in from the south. A second low will move into
the western Bering Sunday. There is some uncertainty to the exact
strength, with model solutions varying between gale and storm
force winds, though there seems to be a general consensus of gale
force winds over the Bering with this system. There is confidence
that the active pattern will continue into early next week with
gales and building seas likely as a series of lows continue to
move over the Bering.

A weakening front will move into the region Saturday, however
winds are expected to remain well below gales. Another low will
track in from the southwest on Sunday and brings the potential for
small craft winds and slightly building seas for the western and
southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A low departing northward over Siberia will cause winds to
gradually diminish over the Aleutians by Saturday. An active
pattern will continue Sunday into early next week. A low is
expected to move into the western Bering on Sunday morning. The
timing of the associated front is generally well agreed upon,
bringing moderate precipitation to all the Aleutians and western
mainland through Monday. The low intensity remains somewhat
uncertain with the ECMWF and Canadian models similar in strength
and position. The GFS has a weaker low and is centered further
south. We are slightly leaning towards the Canadian/ECMWF
solutions however cautious with going towards stronger solutions
given the recent model strength inconsistencies. Models are in
poor agreement regarding position and strength of another low
tracking into the region Tuesday, but as previously mentioned the
active pattern is likely to continue through next week.

A weakening cold front will track into the southwest mainland
Saturday morning. It remains uncertain how much a ridge out ahead
of the front will impede its progress, however a quick shot of
snow is likely over the Anchorage area during the day, though
accumulations are uncertain at this time. Sunday looks to be more
promising as all models are indicating a weak low approaching
from the south. The GFS solution keeps it as a single closed low
moving roughly over Valdez whereas the ECMWF and Canadian models
split the low south of Anchorage. What is more certain is that the
southwesterly flow will advect a significant amount of moisture
into the area and whatever track verifies, accumulating snow is
looking more likely. The active pattern continues into early next
week, however current model agreement is poor, though snow showers
appear to remain possible.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
 Gale Warning 119>121 127>132 136>138 165 170 173>177 179>181 185.
 Heavy Frz Spray 127 139 140 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO/MSO
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP