Storm Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 241300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250145-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the Eastern Bering edges into Western Alaska through
Mon afternoon. A strong 957 mb low at 43N 175E drives over the 
Aleutians to Northern Kamchatka at 961 mb for Tue morning. Its 
front stretches across the Bering and Central Aleutians by Tue 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E 30 to 45 kt wind north of 56N. W wind 30 to 45 kt south of
56N. Seas 22 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft building to 23 to
31 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

356 
FZAK62 PAFC 250048
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251445-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 49N 179E Sun afternoon moves to 58N 175E at 957 mb
by Mon morning and then moves over northern Kamchatka by Tue 
afternoon. A front associated with a North Pacific low moves over 
the central Aleutians Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt wind N of 56N. W wind 40 to 55 kt S of 
56N. Seas 23 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft building to 23 to
30 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

420 
FZAK62 PAFC 251223
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260130-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 mb low at 54N 178E moves over Northern Kamchatka at 963 mb
for Tue morning. Its front pushes into Western Alaska by Tue
afternoon. A 993 mb low near 44N 169E Tue morning moves to 59N
175W at 988 mb Wed morning. Its front trails across the Central 
Aleutians to a 990 mb low at 49N 178W by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

134 
FZAK62 PAFC 260004
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261430-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 956 mb low at 57N 177E Mon afternoon moves over northern
Kamchatka by Tue morning. A 989 mb low Tue afternoon at 50N 179E 
moves into the northern Bering by Wed afternoon. A 987 mb low at 
49N 178W Wed morning moves to 56N 174W at 982 mb by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 177W. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 177W.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. 
Snow with rain.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow with rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

230 
FZAK62 PAFC 261242
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270215-
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front pushes into Western Alaska through Wed morning. A 996 mb
low at 44N 168E moves over the Russian Far East at 990 mb for Wed
afternoon. Its front extends across the Aleutians to a 997 mb low
near 45N 174E Tue afternoon. This low moves to 58N 175W at 972 mb
as its front slides into the Eastern Aleutians by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad ridge encompasses mainland Alaska and the eastern Bering,
while a negatively tilted trough digs over the western Aleutians.
Around the trough, cold air is advecting over the western Bering
and Aleutians. This cold air is butting up against warm air
advecting over the eastern Aleutians and southwestern Gulf from
the North Pacific on the western edge of the ridge. On the
leeward side of the ridge, northerly flow continues to push cold
air over Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska. This cold air aloft
is creating a very dry vertical profile through Southcentral which
is observed by the Anchorage 00Z upper-air sounding. At the
surface, an elongated low is present over the southern Bering.
Ahead of this low, a cold front is advancing eastward bringing
gusty winds to the Bering, and precipitation to the central and
western Aleutians. Satellite imagery depicts the movement of the
front as a swath of clouds that extends from the northern Bering
through the central Bering, and into the North Pacific. In
opposition, the area under the ridge and surface high pressure
remains clear and dry.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement with a building ridge over
the mainland and Gulf, and with strong low pressure in the
Bering. Wind speeds around the low remain a struggle as the
American models depict stronger winds than the ECMWF and Canadian
in the Bering through tonight. Sunday morning is when the next
storm moves into the area, and there is a lot of variation in the
solutions. The GFS is much more robust than the NAM, ECMWF and
Canadian as the low moves through the Bering on Monday. This is
the only real discrepancy as the models generally agree with the
track of the system. With the GFS being the outlier, the NAM was
the general model of choice.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...High pressure over Southcentral will keep skies clear and
winds light through Sunday. There is a potential for very patchy fog
early this morning, but no prolonged reductions in visibility are
expected. Clear skies combined with northerly flow and dropping
temperatures at the surface will increase the chance for more
significant fog to form in the area Saturday night/Sunday morning,
thus reducing visibility. The fog threat will persist for the
next several nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Sunday)...

The offshore winds funneling through the gaps in Valdez, Seward,
and Whittier continue to diminish this morning. A giant upper
level dome of high pressure is building into Southcentral and is
expected to be overhead by late tonight. This will allow winds to
become nearly calm area-wide.

Meanwhile, a feature of the high pressure system will be the
gradual warming of the air mass in the upper but especially mid-
levels of the atmosphere. As it warms and the resulting inversion
strengthens, the injection of moisture into the lowest levels of
the atmosphere from snowmelt and the unfrozen water bodies around
Southcentral, will make fog development increasingly likely each
night. That being said, upper level cloud cover, like we have
presently may still be present and could work to keep the fog from
becoming very widespread. Nevertheless, Anchorage, the Knik
Valley, Western Kenai Peninsula, and interior valleys should plan
on areas of fog to develop each night and persist until the sun
can burn it off in the afternoon. Areas with thicker and denser
fog may possibly see it persist throughout the day as the sun's
heating ability is still far from its annual maximum.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Saturday
through Sunday night)...

A ridge over the southern mainland is bringing mostly clear and
dry conditions across the Bristol Bay area and lower Kuskokwim
Valley. A stream of moisture advecting northward into the Bering
will eventually drift eastward this evening, bringing a surge of
warm moist air into Southwest. Precipitation will fall as rain
across the AKPEN and Southwest coast Sunday morning while areas
further inland will see less of a chance for precip as the ridge
over the mainland maintains its influence keeping things drier.
As this front pushes up against the coast, strong southeasterly
winds will deliver gusty conditions along the northern Kuskokwim
Delta coast through Sunday morning. Southerly winds along the
Southwest coast will ramp up again Sunday evening into Monday
morning as the next storm force low moves into the western Bering
and an enhanced pressure gradient develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Saturday
through Sunday night)...

A long stream of moisture is being advected into the central
Bering as an area of low pressure positioned along a baroclinic
zone drifts northward through the afternoon. Temperatures will
warm over the eastern Bering and Pribilofs through the day as
southerly gales persist. However on the backside of the low, cold
air and westerly gales will move in over the western Aleutians.

By Saturday evening, a ridge briefly builds over the central
Aleutians but quickly dissipates as another storm force low
approaches the western Aleutians Sunday morning. The main
forecast challenge with this system is the track it will take and
uncertainty still remains. The leading front associated with this
low packs a large area of southeasterly storm force winds that
will lift over the central Aleutians Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures within this southerly flow will be warm enough for
precipitation to fall as rain. On the backside of the low, another
round of storm force winds (this time from the northwest) will
move over the western Aleutians for Sunday evening. Temperatures
will be cold enough at this point to allow for snow, resulting in
the likelihood of blowing snow for the western Aleutians Sunday
evening and possibly into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

There is high confidence in a deep storm-force low crossing the
Western Aleutians late Sunday into Monday. A widespread area of
southeasterly gales, with the potential for smaller core of
storm- force winds, are expected across the central and western
Bering ahead of this system through late Monday. Westerly storm-
force winds will wrap underneath the low, impacting the coastal
water surrounding the western and central Aleutians. Waves with
this system will rise to 30 to 40 feet on the Pacific side of the
western and central Aleutians and to 20 to 30 feet across the
western and central Bering. Winds and waves will slowly decrease
in intensity and height as the low lifts north Tuesday. Confidence
is also above average with a second deepening storm-force low
moving across the central Aleutians and into the central and
eastern Bering late Tuesday into Wednesday with widespread
southerly gales, areas of storms, and wave heights building to
over 20 feet.

High pressure anchored over the Gulf of Alaska will allow
generally westerly, sub small-craft winds along the coast from
Kodiak Island to Cordova through midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An established omega block stretching from the western Aleutians
east to the Canadian Interior will anchor a ridge directly over
Southcentral through much of next week. The vertically stacked
ridge will result in a rather tranquil weather pattern, with the
biggest forecast challenge through the period being fog, due to
the weak flow in the lower levels and warmer air advecting
northward in the mid-levels. Drier conditions and light winds will
also allow for larger diurnal temperature swings, with daytime
highs across Southcentral running slightly above average and
nighttime lows below average. A few areas of scattered cloud cover
may develop late Monday into Tuesday from Kodiak north through the
Cook inlet and again late Wednesday into Thursday across western
areas of Southcentral as two shortwaves rotate around the ridge.
Both of these systems, however, are expected to weaken and shear
apart as they lift northward.

For the southwest mainland, conditions will remain more unsettled
with the region sitting in the transition zone between the main
trough to the west and the ridge to the east. Here, a series of
fronts will track toward the coast, move inland and fall apart as
they run into the ridge. The first will arrive late Sunday and
linger through Monday before a second reinforces the southerly
flow and precipitation (especially along the coast) late Monday
through Tuesday. These systems then fall apart as the ridge to
the east shifts a bit to the west. A third front is then expected
to impact the southwest late Thursday into Friday. The challenge
here will be precipitation type, especially as a persistent
southerly flow continues to bring warmer air into the region. The
first two systems look to be mostly a rain event along the coast
(with snow aloft and over the interior), but slightly colder air
in place over the region prior to the third frontal system may
bring a wintry mix to all locations during the onset of
precipitation before the warmer air arrives.

Farther west, the weather pattern is expected to remain quite
active with a deep trough anchored over the Bering. we have a
very active pattern on tap for next week. The week starts with a
strong storm-force low crossing the western Aleutians into the
western Bering. This low lifts north, a second gale-force low
follows behind the first and tracks north into the western Bering
beginning early Wednesday. Broad, cyclonic flow and areas
of showers continue across the Bering as this second storm lifts
north. A newly developing North Pacific low is then expected to
advance toward the western Aleutians by the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 150 155 160 165 170 172-174 178-181 185 412 414.
         Storms: 175-177 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RJA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO/DK
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM