Storm Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

897 
FZAK62 PAFC 240032
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241415-
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low at 60N 179W continues to move into the northern Bering 
through tonight. A 951 mb North Pacific low moves to 50N 179E at 953
mb by Sun afternoon and then to 58N 174E at 954 mb by Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ411-241415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 20
to 29 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft building to 20
to 31 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKST Sat Feb 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 241300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250145-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the Eastern Bering edges into Western Alaska through
Mon afternoon. A strong 957 mb low at 43N 175E drives over the 
Aleutians to Northern Kamchatka at 961 mb for Tue morning. Its 
front stretches across the Bering and Central Aleutians by Tue 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E 30 to 45 kt wind north of 56N. W wind 30 to 45 kt south of
56N. Seas 22 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft building to 23 to
31 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

356 
FZAK62 PAFC 250048
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251445-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 49N 179E Sun afternoon moves to 58N 175E at 957 mb
by Mon morning and then moves over northern Kamchatka by Tue 
afternoon. A front associated with a North Pacific low moves over 
the central Aleutians Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt wind N of 56N. W wind 40 to 55 kt S of 
56N. Seas 23 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft building to 23 to
30 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

420 
FZAK62 PAFC 251223
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260130-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 mb low at 54N 178E moves over Northern Kamchatka at 963 mb
for Tue morning. Its front pushes into Western Alaska by Tue
afternoon. A 993 mb low near 44N 169E Tue morning moves to 59N
175W at 988 mb Wed morning. Its front trails across the Central 
Aleutians to a 990 mb low at 49N 178W by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 AM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

134 
FZAK62 PAFC 260004
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261430-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 956 mb low at 57N 177E Mon afternoon moves over northern
Kamchatka by Tue morning. A 989 mb low Tue afternoon at 50N 179E 
moves into the northern Bering by Wed afternoon. A 987 mb low at 
49N 178W Wed morning moves to 56N 174W at 982 mb by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 177W. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 177W.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. 
Snow with rain.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow with rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 PM AKST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge continues to build over mainland Alaska, with a trough
digging in over the Bering, which will be the dominant synoptic
pattern through early next week. Southcentral is experiencing dry
conditions and offshore flow as this ridge starts to amplify over
the area. A front stretching from the North Pacific to the
northern Bering along the western part of the ridge is bringing
gusty conditions and rain showers across the western and central
Aleutians and Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are generally in very good agreement through
Sunday afternoon. Out west, there are some differences in how the
models handle a low moving across the central/western Aleutians
Friday afternoon and then northward across the central Bering
Friday night and Saturday. With a ridge and subsidence over
Southcentral, some fog is expected and the models generally do not
do very well with low level moisture. The forecast confidence
for the afternoon package is above normal, except below normal
for the fog.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into this
evening. LIFR conditions in fog are expected beginning around
midnight, and continuing through the morning. The timing and
density of the fog around there area is uncertain, but judging
from last night conditions, it should move in. Then conditions
should improve Saturday afternoon as the fog lifts/clears.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Monday)

As a former colleague of mine would say, "big bubble...no
trouble". That is the best way to some up at least the next few
days, as high pressure will continue to build across Southcentral
through the period. This will allow fog to develop during the
nocturnal hours and persist through the morning. For tonight, it
looks like portions of Copper Basin and Western Kenai up through
the western Anchorage Bowl will see the greatest impact from this.
Then, as the ridge will continue to strengthen over the next few
days, look for the fog to increase in coverage and density, with
visibilities 1/2 mile or less a real possibility for many
locations.

With a higher sun angle compared to the past few months, most
locations should experience enough heating to help mix out some or
all of the fog during the afternoon hours, except for the Copper
Basin. Here, much colder air being trapped in the valleys will
make it more difficult for this to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Saturday
and Sunday)...

As upper level ridging builds over the southern mainland, and
moisture from a low and its associated front over the Central
Aleutians flows over the top of this ridge, the resulting moist
southwest onshore flow over the Kuskokwim Delta will keep a chance
of precipitation across the region through tonight. As this ridge
is pushed east by the low and front moving into the Bering Sea
Saturday, increased moisture moves to the Kuskokwim Delta coast
once again increasing the chance for precipitation Saturday
afternoon and night. Along with this increased moisture will be
very warm low level air, and the 850 mb level temperatures are
expected to warm from -10C to 0C Saturday. This will result in
precipitation, if any, in the form of rain. By Sunday the upper
ridge is shoved over the Southcentral region, thus increased
cloud cover and chances of precipitation can be expected over the
southwest mainland Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Saturday
and Sunday)...

A low now over the central Aleutians will continue to trek north
with its associated frontal boundary pushing east to south of the
Aleutians Sunday producing a strong gradient in advance of the
front and around the low resulting in strong wind. Temperatures
will support snow at first then a mix of rain and snow. This
elevates the concern for a brief period of possible blizzard
conditions for the central and western Aleutians Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

There is high confidence in a deep storm-force low crossing the
Western Aleutians late Sunday into Monday. A widespread area of
southeasterly gales, with the potential for smaller core of
storm- force winds, are expected across the central and western
Bering ahead of this system through late Monday. Westerly storm-
force winds will wrap underneath the low, impacting the coastal
water surrounding the western and central Aleutians. Waves with
this system will rise to 30 to 40 feet on the Pacific side of the
western and central Aleutians and to 20 to 30 feet across the
western and central Bering. Winds and waves will slowly decrease
in intensity and height as the low lifts north Tuesday. Confidence
is also above average with a second deepening storm-force low
moving across the central Aleutians and into the central and
eastern Bering late Tuesday into Wednesday with widespread
southerly gales, areas of storms, and wave heights building to
over 20 feet.

High pressure anchored over the Gulf of Alaska will allow
generally westerly, sub small-craft winds along the coast from
Kodiak Island to Cordova through midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Mon through Fri)...

An established omega block stretching from the western Aleutians
east to the Canadian Interior will anchor a ridge directly over
Southcentral through much of next week. The vertically stacked
ridge will result in a rather tranquil weather pattern, with the
biggest forecast challenge through the period being fog, due to
the weak flow in the lower levels and warmer air advecting
northward in the mid-levels. Drier conditions and light winds will
also allow for larger diurnal temperature swings, with daytime
highs across Southcentral running slightly above average and
nighttime lows below average. A few areas of scattered cloud cover
may develop late Monday into Tuesday from Kodiak north through the
Cook inlet and again late Wednesday into Thursday across western
areas of Southcentral as two shortwaves rotate around the ridge.
Both of these systems, however, are expected to weaken and shear
apart as they lift northward.

For the southwest mainland, conditions will remain more unsettled
with the region sitting in the transition zone between the main
trough to the west and the ridge to the east. Here, a series of
fronts will track toward the coast, move inland and fall apart as
they run into the ridge. The first will arrive late Sunday and
linger through Monday before a second reinforces the southerly
flow and precipitation (especially along the coast) late Monday
through Tuesday. These systems then fall apart as the ridge to
the east shifts a bit to the west. A third front is then expected
to impact the southwest late Thursday into Friday. The challenge
here will be precipitation type, especially as a persistent
southerly flow continues to bring warmer air into the region. The
first two systems look to be mostly a rain event along the coast
(with snow aloft and over the interior), but slightly colder air
in place over the region prior to the third frontal system may
bring a wintry mix to all locations during the onset of
precipitation before the warmer air arrives.

Farther west, the weather pattern is expected to remain quite
active with a deep trough anchored over the Bering. we have a
very active pattern on tap for next week. The week starts with a
strong storm-force low crossing the western Aleutians into the
western Bering. This low lifts north, a second gale-force low
follows behind the first and tracks north into the western Bering
beginning early Wednesday. Broad, cyclonic flow and areas
of showers continue across the Bering as this second storm lifts
north. A newly developing North Pacific low is then expected to
advance toward the western Aleutians by the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 150-170, 172-177, 179-185, 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM