Storm Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

814 
FZAK62 PAFC 071710
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080415-
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 59N 173E moves into Kamchatka at 995 mb for Fri
morning. A front extends over Western Alaska through Sat morning.
A 984 mb North Pacific low drives to 56N 169E at 951 mb and
continues to 60N 173E at 956 mb by Sat morning. Its front 
stretches over the Bering and Aleutians through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-080415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 19 to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and  snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 33 to 48 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
810 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

746 
FZAK62 PAFC 071906 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080430-
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 59N 173E moves into Kamchatka at 995 mb for Fri
morning. A front extends over Western Alaska through Sat morning.
A 984 mb North Pacific low drives to 56N 169E at 951 mb and
continues to 60N 173E at 956 mb by Sat morning. Its front 
stretches over the Bering and Aleutians through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-080430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 19 to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and  snow.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 33 to 48 ft.  
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.


$$

PKZ412-080430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.  
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.  
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.  
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.


$$

PKZ413-080430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.  
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.  
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
1006 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft.  
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

855 
FZAK62 PAFC 080038
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081445-
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A weakening front off the southwest coast dissipates as it makes
landfall Thursday night. A 995 mb low at 52N 175E moves northeast
and dissipates Thursday night. A 984 mb low around 46N 158E
deepens to 951 mb as it moves to 57N 170E Friday afternoon. This
storm continues north to the Russian coast Friday night. The 
associated front weakens as it moves to the eastern Bering 
Saturday morning. A weak 1010 mb low forms on the front near 75N 
170W Saturday.

$$

PKZ411-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 21 to 36 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 31 to 48 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 33 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft building to 14 to 22 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 PM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft.

$$

652 
FZAK62 PAFC 081210
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090200-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A decaying front lingers from Western Alaska across the Alaska
Peninsula through Sat morning. A 960 mb low at 50N 164E moves to 
57N 170E at 951 mb then drives into the Russian Far East at 990 
mb for Sat morning. Its front sweeps the Aleutians and Bering by 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 22 to 37 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft building to 14 to 22 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.

$$

199 
FZAK62 PAFC 090026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front moves over the western Aleutians and Bering 
associated with a 952 mb low at 56N 170E Fri afternoon. The front
moves east over the central Bering by Sat afternoon and then over
the Alaska Peninsula by Sun afternoon. A new front approaches the
western Aleutians by Sun afternoon associated with a 962 mb low 
at 47N 168E. 

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing
spray after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 21 to 34 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 35 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

201 
FZAK62 PAFC 091214
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100145-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering into 
Western Alaska for Mon morning. A 969 mb low at 44N 163E Sun 
morning moves to 55N 176E at 959 mb by Mon morning. Its front 
pushes over the Aleutians through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Wed Feb 6 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge continues to slowly move over Southcentral
Alaska this afternoon. Southerly flow and a few rain showers have
been observed over the AKPEN as the frontal boundary, extending
from Southwest to south of the Chain, progresses eastward.
Localized flurries have been seen through the Anchorage Bowl
earlier today. Other parts of Southcentral remain quiet and dry
this afternoon. To the west of the mainland ridge, a deep trough
is situated over the western Aleutians and Bering. Circulation
from a closed low, along with a few showers, can be spotted on
water vapor imagery moving over the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in good synoptic agreement as the amplified
ridge sits over Mainland through Saturday. Models are also in
agreement with the placement of the low that moves into the
western Bering Fri afternoon. However, the models differ with the
intensity of this storm.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and low stratus remain the big concern for overnight.
Guidance is indicating little to no fog, but that does not look
reasonable. Expect periods of fog and stratus through Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Wednesday
night through Friday)...
High pressure has begun to move into southcentral Alaska. A
change in weather has taken place with this pattern shift. We have
moved from being concerned about precipitation and winds the past
couple days to quiet weather on the large scale, with fog and low
stratus being our focus tonight and over the next couple of days.
This is due to the ridge of high pressure that is trapping
moisture underneath it. The moisture layer is shallow over the
MatSu and on down through Anchorage and to the Kenai, so fog is
expected there. A low level stratus cloud deck exists in the
Copper River Basin due to a more robust moisture layer, so stratus
is expected to continue for that region. Dense fog is also
present along the coast around Cordova and is expected to remain
in place through the morning tomorrow.

To elaborate more on Anchorage area fog, we currently have a
dense fog advisory out until midnight for the Palmer-Wasilla area
and Knik Arm. We will evaluate further this evening to see if we
need to extend this advisory through the morning. We are expecting
fog to develop in Anchorage tonight, but due to the unpredictable
nature of fog we will have to watch and see how dense the fog
gets around town. So stay tuned to the NWS forecasts for
developments tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A low level jet of warm, moist air ahead of a trough digging into
the North Pacific will continue to be the main player in the
Southwest's weather through Thursday. Strong south winds and
cloudy skies with areas of precipitation have persisted through
much of the day in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas. Of
note, cross- barrier flow has kept conditions dry on the north
side of the AKPEN with temperatures in the 40s, and expect
Thursday to be even warmer potentially reaching 50 degrees.
Elsewhere, with temperatures in the mid 30s, precipitation types
continue to be a challenge, but many observing sites have changed
over to rain this afternoon and expect the changeover to continue
into this evening. Rain could switch back to snow tonight in
colder areas as temperatures drop, but by tomorrow afternoon low
lying areas will switch back to rain as temperatures approach the
upper 30s.

The lower Kuskokwim Valley has been slow to warm up with
temperatures still below freezing. As temperatures in the lower
levels of the atmosphere increase, stagnant cold air under an
inversion could facilitate brief freezing rain Thursday night...
however considering models show temperatures aloft right around
freezing, or just barely above, there is enough uncertainty to
preclude this from the forecast.

The trough will push eastward Thursday into Friday, and cold air
on the backside of the trough will veer to southwest or west, and
Southwest will see a brief one day break from warm wet weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Warm air advection ahead of a trough digging into the North
Pacific continues to bring precipitation to the eastern Aleutians,
while farther west the cold pool associated with this trough will
continue to trigger showers tonight into Thursday. A compact gale
force low will approach the western Aleutians from the southwest
Thursday afternoon, but is expected to skirt far enough south of
the Aleutians that gales are unlikely in the coastal waters.
Models continue to project a hurricane force low developing in the
Pacific Friday, which will bring storm force winds to the western
Aleutians and Bering...possibly even areas of hurricane force
winds.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
There remains high confidence of a strong low tracking northward
across the western Bering which will bring diminishing storm force
winds to the western Aleutians/Bering Saturday. These will
generally persist throughout the day, weakening through the
evening into Sunday morning as a weak ridge builds in behind the
low. There is good agreement that winds and seas will rapidly
increase back to southeasterly gales Sunday afternoon and further
increase and veer to southwesterly storm force overnight through
Monday afternoon as an intense ~960mb low tracks to the west of
Attu. The most intense winds will occur over the western
Aleutians, gradually diminishing away from the low center, though
gales are still possible as far east as Cold Bay. Winds will
overall diminish across the entire Aleutians Monday evening as the
low departs to the north.

Light winds and calm seas are expected to be over the Gulf of
Alaska Saturday under high pressure. A low is expected to develop
over Bristol Bay Sunday morning and track east into the Gulf of
Alaska by the afternoon, increasing waves and seas over the
western Gulf. There is the potential for gale force offshore winds
to develop over Shelikof Strait and the Barren Islands Sunday
afternoon/evening, and may continue in this region into Monday,
however there is significant disagreement in the position of the
low, thus confidence remains minimal at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Saturday, a high amplitude upper ridge will be located
over the eastern half of the mainland with a deep upper low
spinning over most of the Bering Sea. The ridge, which had
previously deflected eastward propagating energy to the north over
the ridge keeping Southcentral dry, will begin to tilt to the
northeast allowing the upper low to shift further east while
sending a series of disturbances into Southcentral. Initially, a
closed surface low south of the AKPEN will become absorbed into
the main flow of the upper low and push east across Southcentral
by Saturday night. Next, a cold front will rapidly move across
the southwest mainland on Sunday bringing precipitation, changing
over to snow during the day on Sunday, to the area before pushing
into Southcentral later in the day on Sunday. There is still a
fair amount of uncertainty regarding how far north this system
tracks, which will determine snow potential across inland areas
over Southcentral.

The overall progressive pattern will continue with another strong
North Pacific low approaching the western Aleutians Sunday night,
with increasing confidence that the system will strengthen to at
least storm force as it crosses into the Bering. The low will
induce a ridge downstream over the mainland, leading to a break in
the weather on Monday. A front associated with the strong low
will plow across the western mainland Monday evening before
weakening some as it pushes east into Southcentral. The
progressive trough ridge couplet pattern looks to continue through
the rest of next week with the North Pacific storm track spinning
up a low across the Bering and into the mainland every 2-3 days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 111.
MARINE...Gale 155 160 165 172 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP