Storm Warning 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
FZAK52 PAFC 281254
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-290145-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front moves over the western Aleutians Mon morning. The
associated low moves to 145 nm south of Shemya at 964 mb by Tue 
morning and then moves near Shemya at 992 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-290145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-290145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-290145-
Bristol Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning becoming 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-290145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-290145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt west of Dutch Harbor. Winds SE 20 kt
elsewhere. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-290145-
Unalaska Bay-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-290145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt west of Dutch Harbor. Wind SE 25 kt
elsewhere. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-290145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-290145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-290145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Sea 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-290145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-290145-
Adak to Kiska-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 60 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...31 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side... 29 ft Pacific
side. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-290145-
Kiska to Attu-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-290145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-290145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray near ice edge.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-290145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-290145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.

$$

928 
FZAK52 PAFC 290044
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291345-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 957 mb low 350 nm South of Shemya moves to 129 nm northwest of
Kiska at 992 mb Wed morning. A 978 mb low 575 nm south of Attu Wed 
morning moves to 285 nm southwest of Attu at 967 mb with its front 
approaching the Western Aleutians by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15
kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291345-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291345-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291345-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 21 ft. Pacific side,
seas 23 ft building to 29 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft Bering side... 27 ft Pacific
side. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side... 23 ft
Pacific side.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291345-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED...E wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-291345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Sun Jan 27 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper levels over the state this morning are dominated by a
highly amplified pattern with a longwave trough digging south
across the Bering Sea with a high amplitude ridge seen building
across the eastern half of the mainland. In between, a 110 kt
southerly upper jet is blasting across the AKPEN and the western
mainland, helping to support a vertically stacked low over the
eastern Bering. The upper jet can be clearly seen on water vapor
and IR imagery as a thin ribbon of moisture-laden air extending
from nearly 30N to as far north as the Chucki Sea. This
atmospheric river is tapping into sub-tropical moisture and
thrusting it north over southwest AK leading to strong winds and
heavy rain over the windward (southern) mountains with distinct
downslope holes seen on the leeward sides. Further east, ridging
is leading to rather quiet weather over southcentral with just a
thick cirrus shield from a storm system well to the south keeping
temperatures somewhat mild tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement through the short term forecast
period. By Monday night models begin to show some differences
regarding a surface low approaching southcentral from the Gulf of
Alaska, specifically regarding the track of the low center. This
results is differences in the wind field and QPF amounts over the
inland areas. These details should be worked out over the next
couple of runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level ridge over Southcentral Alaska this morning will
move to the Alcan border by the afternoon as flow aloft becomes
south-to-southwest over the region. A frontal boundary associated
with a low in the North Pacific will move to the North Gulf
coast by Sunday afternoon and bring some snow and rain to coastal
areas.
The low approaching the Gulf Sunday night will be the first of two
that move from the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska from the
south. This first low will move just northeast of Kodiak Island
Monday and then the second low will absorb it in the western Gulf
Monday evening and then track inland Monday night into Tuesday.
This is important because the track of the low will determine
precipitation type for the Cook Inlet region for Monday night and
Tuesday as the low heads inland. At this time the most likely low
track will be over the Western Kenai peninsula and then into the
Susitna Valley. This is a very similar track to the low that went
through the area Thursday night into Friday last week. The low
this week is not nearly as strong and therefore there will not be
the high winds associated with it as was with the previous one.
However, this track will probably allow a bit of downsloping off
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains until the low moves over the area.
Therefore there could be a mix of precipitation types from the
Kenai Peninsula northward into the Susitna Valley (including
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley) Monday light into Tuesday.
Rain and snow are in the forecast, but there is a chance of
freezing rain as well. This is a situation worth watching as it
develops over the next two days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Wednesday morning)

A storm located across the northern Bering will continue to move
away from the area today, with colder air in the cyclonic flow
making inroads to the Kuskokwim Delta. With decreasing dynamics as
the system pulls away, precipitation will be on a downward trend
through Monday morning as the cooler air moves in. Wouldn't be
surprised if a few locations received some very light amounts, but
this is a marginal chance.

Further south and east, another storm system will approach Kodiak
Island over the next couple of days, with an inverted trough
retrograding across the region. This will bring a reinforcing shot
of warm advection (the horizontal movement of an airmass) as
winds become easterly. This offshore flow will allow for increased
warming in the lee of the mountains, as down-sloping effects help
increase temperatures due to frictional heating. Increased lift
and moisture with the trough will aid in precipitation
development, mainly for locations east of the Kilbuck Mountains
and on the eastern/southern slopes. Look for cooler and drier
conditions to develop area-wide by early Wednesday morning, as
the system departs the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Wednesday morning)

As a Bering low lifts north of the region by Monday morning, look
for colder air to move into the area with precipitation on the
decrease. Winds will also subside due to a weakening pressure
gradient.

Our attention then turns to a sub-960 mb low approaching the
western Aleutians tonight from the west. This system will send a
surface front eastward, with sustained storm force winds
developing west of Adak by Monday morning, with some hurricane
force gusts possible. Waves will increase as they build towards 30
feet or more given a long fetch length. Widespread precipitation
with the front will reach moderate intensity at times, decreasing
visibilities. This features will reach the central
Bering/Aleutians by Tuesday evening before stalling as frontolysis
(the decaying of a front) takes place, as the parent low fills
and weakens near Shemya. Further east, relatively benign weather
is anticipated.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The models remain in good agreement with the low near the western
Aleutians Sunday night into Monday resulting in high confidence
in the area seeing storm force winds, rough seas and another
round of precipitation. A second low quickly develops in the same
source region and will take a similar track towards the Western
Aleutians. With a dome of high pressure north of Hawaii, these
storms are following the path of least resistance. For Days 3-5
expected a batch of unsettled weather for the Western and Central
Aleutians. As for the Gulf of Alaska and PWS, the confidence level
is much lower because the features that are appearing in the
models over that region simply are displaying differences with
intensity and timing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models continue to show a mature low moving from the eastern
waters of Japan to Western Aleutians late Sunday and Monday.
Expect this storm to bring to potentially bring storm force winds
and more precipitation to the region Monday and Tuesday.
Additionally, there is a new low spinning up in its wake that is
progged to take a similar path. Very confident that the Western
Aleutians will see a batch of unsettled weather early this
forecast period. However, the confidence level wanes for Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska where the global models are out of sync
past the 96 hr mark which is most noticeable with the myriad of
shortwaves at 500 mb. A reoccurring theme for this winter has
been fine tuning of the forecast one or two days before the event
once the models have hopefully locked onto a solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 119 130 131 139 173-176 180 181.
		 Storm 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS