Storm Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

586 
FZAK52 PAFC 270005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-271315-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 mb low 85 nm west of St. Paul will move near Norton Sound 
at 991 mb Sun morning. A strong front, associated with a 956 mb 
Kamchatka low, will move over the western Aleutians Sun night. 
The front will intensify as it moves over the central Aleutians 
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-271315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-271315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-271315-
Bristol Bay-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-271315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt except S 40 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-271315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt except 50 kt east of Dutch Harbor 
in the evening. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-271315-
Unalaska Bay-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-271315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-271315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-271315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-271315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-271315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-271315-
Adak to Kiska-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. 
Bering side, seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. 
Pacific side, seas 13 ft building to 28 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-271315-
Kiska to Attu-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Bering side, seas 14 ft building to 22 ft
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 20 ft building to 30 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-271315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-271315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-271315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-271315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A long-wave trough over the eastern Bering is weakening as the
associated upper level low continues to migrate northward towards
Norton Sound. This trough is advecting cooler air over the western
mainland and pushing it towards Southcentral. Ahead of the
trough, a ridge is building over the central and eastern Gulf. The
jet stream is vertically oriented over the Gulf, coupled with the
western edge of the upper level ridge. The winds in the jet
streak are approaching 150 kts at 300 mb. This jet streak can be
observed in IR satellite imagery as a swath of cloud cover
extending from the Pacific Ocean through the Gulf into Southeast
Alaska. Another section of the jet, albeit weaker, is over the
central Aleutians. This portion of the jet coincides with a
vertically stacked, intensifying North Pacific low that is
advancing towards the western Aleutians.

At the surface, an occluding front continues to move inland ahead
of the upper level trough over the eastern Bering. This front,
and associated cooler air, has created precipitation and
southerly flow throughout southern Alaska. The influx of cooler
air will cause temperatures to drop just below freezing through
Southcentral tonight. The strong winds experienced through the
Turnagain Arm, Cook Inlet and Shelikof Straight continue to be
blow as that front moves through the area. A second front is
moving over the western and central Aleutians ahead of the
incoming low in the North Pacific, which is ramping up winds in
the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in relatively good agreement through Sunday
afternoon. Models differ some on placement of the low centers
within the complex moving into the Aleutians in the low complex
approaching the Aleutians/Bering Sea tonight and Saturday.
However, they all have a similar handling the the frontal trough
and pressure gradients and resultant wind fields.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected. Their could be a brief period
of MVFR showers this afternoon, but the probability is low. Gusty
southerly winds across the airport complex will weaken later this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Breezy southerly winds will continue to diminish through the
evening as today's frontal system lifts further away to the north.
Cold advection from an upper level trough pushing in from the
west will drop temperatures steadily overnight with snow levels
dropping back down to sea level. In most areas, however,
precipitation has already tapered off to scattered or isolated
showers with exceptions being the northern Gulf coast, Talkeetna,
and northern Chugach mountains and northern Susitna where showers
are more abundant. Snow showers in these areas are expected to
continue overnight with the support of the cold, unstable air mass
pushing over the area and then taper off through Saturday
morning. An inch or two of snow is possible in the Talkeetna area
with 3 to 6 inches further north and in the Hatcher Pass
vicinity.

Upper level ridging will build back over Southcentral Alaska
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night bringing a period of
drier conditions. The upper ridge will amplify and shift east on
Sunday, opening the Gulf back up to southerly flow aloft with the
next frontal system moving into the southern Gulf Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of a system have pushed across Southwest today. The
latest METARs and other observations across the region depict a
mosaic of rain and snow. The radars at King Salmon/PAKC and
Bethel/PABC still have pockets of light precipitation on them as
of 3:43 PM or 0043Z. Significant accumulations are not expected
tonight but there is still a little juice left in the air. Expect
a short break between systems, then a Bering storm will usher
another batch of moisture into the region. Looking at thickness
values and model soundings, again there is a chance for a wintry
mix or rain/snow. Between the complex terrain and the complex
thermal profiles, it will be really tricky pinpointing the exact
p-type for each location, but very confident on the track of the
storm into Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A progressive and unsettled pattern is on tap this forecast
period. There is a decaying surface low near Norton Sound, a
surface low southwest of Adak and a secondary surface low near
Attu Island. There is a mature frontal boundary south of the
Aleutians and looking at model data and the latest Himawari
satellite image the associated cold front extends all the way
south to the Mariana Islands. Tonight expect the surface low
associated with this boundary to jump the chain and deepen a
little. The low near Attu will become absorbed into the longwave
pattern. A secondary wave will develop along the baroclinic zone
south of the Aleutians this weekend. Meanwhile, an entirely new
low will undergo rapid cyclogenesis east of Japan and begin to
track towards the Western Aleutians. But the brunt of this storm
is expected just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The models have come into good agreement with the low near the
western Aleutians Sunday night into Monday resulting in high
confidence in the area seeing storm force winds. Confidence lowers
on Tuesday as the models diverge with the track of the low, but
there is agreement that the wind speed will weaken. The models are
also struggling out east in the Gulf with a low tracking into the
area from the south on Monday. Some of the guidance is looking at
gale force winds through much of the marine areas in and around
the Gulf on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast is plagued by model uncertainty resulting
in a forecast leaning towards the ensemble means. The area of
highest confidence is with a storm force low approaching the
western Aleutians Sunday night into Monday. There is also decent
confidence in ridging over the panhandle holding over the area
into mid week with multiple lows tracking through the area to the
west of the ridging. The models are struggling with the timing
and intensity of these lows resulting in the ensembles being
preferred. This setup will likely result in more above average
temperatures for most locations in the southern mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155 172.
 Gale Warning 150 160 165 170 171 174 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK