Storm Warning 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

036 
FZAK52 PAFC 251258
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-260130-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 973 mb low 200 nm
northeast of Saint Paul moves over Norton Sound Fri night at 991 mb 
and then dissipates. A 976 mb low over Shemya moves 320 nm southwest 
of Saint Paul at 973 mb Fri night and then moves 180 nm northwest of 
Saint Paul Sat night at 980 mb.

$$

PKZ150-260130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-260130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight, Seas 15 
ft building to 23 ft after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW 
wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight, Seas 15 ft. Rain with 
snow.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft except 24 ft from the Shumagin
Islands E. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-260130-
Bristol Bay-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft subsiding
to 7 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-260130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-260130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-260130-
Unalaska Bay-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-260130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-260130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-260130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-260130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-260130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ177-260130-
Adak to Kiska-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ178-260130-
Kiska to Attu-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-260130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-260130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Snow with
rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-260130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-260130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 AM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray.
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.

$$

631 
FZAK52 PAFC 252359
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261245-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 mb low 210 nm southwest of Adak will move to 150 nm
northeast of Adak at 968 mb Sat afternoon. The low will then move
into the northern Bering Sun morning. A front will approach the 
western Aleutians Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight, Seas
14 ft building to 23 ft after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands
E, SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight, Seas 15 ft. Rain 
with snow.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261245-
Bristol Bay-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261245-
Unalaska Bay-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261245-
Adak to Kiska-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261245-
Kiska to Attu-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Snow with
rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-261245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKST Thu Jan 24 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...An active pattern continues over the
Anchorage CWA. A low positioned near the western Aleutians
continues to bring areas of precipitation and strong winds to the
western and central Aleutians. A surface closed low north of the
central Aleutians, which is associated with an elongated
shortwave upper trough, is bringing precipitation to the central
Aleutians, Bering, and Pribilofs. A surface trough associated with
that upper trough is enhancing southeast flow over Southcentral
and Southwest, continuing warm conditions and bringing
precipitation to the Gulf coast. Several North Pacific lows are
evident on satellite, and the progression of these lows will
determine the weather in Southcentral over the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Consensus among models and from run to run
remains poor for today and tomorrow in resolving the complex
setup of multiple mesoscale lows in the North Pacific. Based on
satellite data, one low is near 40N 170W and is initialized well
on the NAM, however abundant lightning associated with this low
lends the concern that the convective nature will negatively
impact the predictability of this low. Ample cold air trails to
the west of this low, thus this low is preventing cold air from
reaching east of the low. A storm force low near 49N 162W has
been resolved well in the latest NAM, GFS, and EC. The CMC does
not depict this low correctly, thus the CMC solutions have
generally been disregarded with this forecast package. This low is
expected to track north toward the AKPEN today. A baroclinic leaf
in the North Pacific is evident on satellite, and the associated
strong low is expected to form roughly near 41N 156W. The question
is how this low will proceed. The EC deepens the low shifting
toward the AKPEN much further than the GFS and NAM do, thus in the
EC solution, the low farther south that's currently developing is
not as deep, and fills once it reaches the Gulf. It then
approaches Southcentral as a front instead of a closed low. This
solution would be a Chinook setup for Southcentral, with warm
conditions, gusty winds and possible rain. Since the NAM
generally initialized the lows well, we leaned towards it in the
forecast over the next day, bringing a closed storm force low into
the Gulf towards Prince William Sound. This solution would
indicate possible snow in Southcentral, maybe even in Anchorage.
However, we don't want to completely discount the EC, as the
multitude of lows in the North Pacific, and the lack of cold air
to the east of the developing low diminishes confidence that it
will develop into the intense closed low that the NAM/GFS depict.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A front is moving north along the coast now, and will move
inland by midday, bringing an end to LLWS. Some remnant Turnagain
winds will move through the terminal and last into the evening,
but they are not expected to be gusty. Another low will bring rain
Friday morning, but a lot of uncertainty exists with this low.
There is a small, but not zero chance, that snow may mix in if the
low moves east. For now going with rain and still keeping CIGS
VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The overall forecast for today remains on track for Southcentral
with the strong front over the north Gulf coast pushing inland
and to the Alaska Range by afternoon. The big forecast challenge
has been with the next storm system which will move into the area
Friday. Satellite imagery from overnight shows that low developing
near 45N 158W with ample upper level support. Due to the position
and strength of the upper level support with this low, went with
the GFS and NAM models as it heads into the forecast area
tomorrow. Both models have shown an eastward drift with the low
track and movement into Prince William Sound tomorrow. This more
easterly track will have a large impact on the forecast across the
region and there is the potential for more large changes as the
storm develops.

With the current package, the track will keep Chinook winds from
moving through Cook Inlet. There will still be a bit of
downsloping though tonight, but the strong winds coming off the
Chugach, Kenai, and Talkeetna Mountains and bringing a rapid
melting of the snow looks less likely. There will still be a
strong southerly push of wind up Cook Inlet tomorrow, and the big
question will be whether there will be deep enough cold air aloft
wrapping in from the southwest to cool temperatures for the rain
expected during the late night and early morning hours to turn to
snow by the afternoon. Currently going with a rain-snow mix over
Anchorage because the precipitation type could go either way.
I suspect that the dominant precipitation type though Friday will
be rain, but there is enough uncertainty to mention the snow
potential. This is a complicated short-term forecast that is
likely to need an adjustment or two as the low develops and moves
toward the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and Fri)...
The active pattern continues. One warm front will lift through the
area today as another compact, storm force low drives quickly
through the Alaska Peninsula by this afternoon. First, the warm
front currently lifting through is bringing widespread
precipitation across SW AK. Precipitation type varies across
Bristol Bay from rain near the coast and in the lee of the
mountains, to snow for locations further inland and farther
north. It is all snow for the YK-Delta for now. This will change
over to a rain/snow mix this afternoon as cross-barrier winds
start to mix some warmer temperatures down to the surface. Only a
couple inches of snow are expected at the most across the northern
half of the area.

The next system will be much stronger. It is coming in the form of
a tightly wound area of low pressure. It will track quickly from
the North Pacific (where it is visible on satellite right now) up
through the Alaska Peninsula today. As it rides on the left exit
region of an upper level jet, it will be able to maintain its
strength in the mid to low 970 mb range. With its compact nature,
have opted to add a small area of storm force winds into marine
zone 155 for today. Some timing differences remain with this
feature as the American models continue to advertise a faster
solution along the west coast while the ECMWF is quite a bit
slower into Fri.

As it crosses the Alaska Peninsula, it will sling a wave of
precipitation into the Bristol Bay area by this evening. It could
start initially as snow, but should change quickly over to a
rain/snow mix for most spots with gusty southeast winds. As the
system exits the area to the north by Fri morning, it will leave
Southwest AK vulnerable to moist, unstable southwest flow with
cold air advection. Thus, expect some gusty winds and widespread
snow showers. Have increased PoPs to likely in many areas with
this.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The East Bering will feature the most active weather to start the
period before it hands that title to the Western Bering Fri. One
weaker low is spinning south of the Pribilof Islands this morning.
This will continue to make for some rain/snow over those islands
early today as well as some variable wind conditions. But this
system will quickly be overwhelmed by a much stronger low by this
afternoon. This storm will bring gale force southeasterly winds to
location near the Western Capes as it passes through this evening.
It will leave gale force southwest winds on its backside through
the day Fri.

The Western Bering will start off relatively quietly with one
parent low. This low will drift to the west and slowly fill
during the period. It will keep cyclonic flow over the Western
Aleutians. By late Fri, a new developing low will move in and take
its place. This low will tap into some colder air coming off
Russia. This will allow it to deepen and bring a return to gale
force winds across the area. It will become the dominant feature
into the weekend as it encompasses the entire Bering Sea.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The weekend will see another round of low pressure in the Bering
Sea. Model guidance is not consistent, but have decided on a
forecast based on the American models. Both models have the low in
the Bering Saturday being a large and powerful one, with storm
force winds likely for the Central Bering/Aleutians, so have added
them to the forecast. We will have to hone this area of winds
over the next couple of days. The large size of this low also
means gale force winds will encompass most of the Bering Sea and
Aleutians Saturday into Sunday, with winds beginning to taper
Sunday. In the Gulf of Alaska, remnants of a low moving through
will keep gales in the northwest Gulf until Saturday, with strong
winds in Shelikof Strait as well. Things will quiet a bit after
that, but another round of winds in association with the low over
the Bering will make it into the western gulf Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Seeing as how models can't agree farther out than two days,
confidence is low when we move into the long term with the
forecast. In coordination with WPC this morning, the solution in
the long term is to base the forecast off of ensemble guidance. We
agree with the WPC solution, so will lean that way going forward
with the forecast. Major features were able to be discerned in the
longterm, with ridging over AK on Saturday and another large low
entering the Bering Sea. After the low exits Monday, ridging is
anticipated to build in over much of the forecast area, with a
trough over the western Aleutians. Of course, details cannot be
defined at this time, so a broad brush approach was taken to the
forecast. Stay tuned as things will likely change.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 119 120 351.
 GALE WARNING 125 129 130 131 132 139 150 160 165 170 171 173 174
176 178 180 352 414
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MM/JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB