Storm Warning 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

023 
FZAK51 PAFC 300410 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

Updated zones 121 and 129

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301400-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 967 mb low 30 nm West of Sitkinak moves to 25 nm North of Kenai 
at 975 mb Mon morning then inland Mon afternoon. Its front sweeps 
over the North Gulf Coast through Mon afternoon. The trailing 
front slides into the Central Gulf for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight.  Seas
20 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301400-
Resurrection Bay-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt around midnight. 
Seas building to 5 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.  
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301400-
Prince William Sound-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight.  Seas
12 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301400-
Port Valdez-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  Snow and
rain. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  Widespread rain
and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers and snow. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301400-
Valdez Narrows-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301400-
Valdez Arm-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301400-
Passage Canal-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.  
Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.  Seas
13 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray W of
Augustine Island. Widespread rain and snow showers. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301400-
Barren Islands East-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301400-
Chiniak Bay-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301400-
Marmot Bay-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301400-
Shelikof Strait-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight.  Seas
7 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
4 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight.  Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. 
Widespread snow showers. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray N of Anchor Point
in the morning. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  Widespread rain showers
and snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
Snow  and rain. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers and rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-301400-
Kachemak Bay-
710 PM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

414 
FZAK51 PAFC 301215
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-310100-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 mb low near Soldotna will move north this morning and 
dissipate this afternoon. A 970 mb low 180 nm southwest of Sitkinak 
this afternoon will move to 50 nm west of Kenai Tue afternoon then 
to near Talkeetna late Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-310100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-310100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-310100-
Resurrection Bay-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-310100-
Prince William Sound-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-310100-
Port Valdez-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-310100-
Valdez Narrows-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the morning, then diminishing
to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-310100-
Valdez Arm-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-310100-
Passage Canal-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-310100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ131-310100-
Barren Islands East-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-310100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-310100-
Chiniak Bay-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-310100-
Marmot Bay-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-310100-
Shelikof Strait-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-310100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-310100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-310100-
Kachemak Bay-
315 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 AM AKST Sun Dec 29 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A region of drastically different air masses continues to bisect
the Bering/Western Alaska Range and North Pacific this morning as
a powerful atmospheric river and warm front is currently moving
northeastward from the Central Pacific toward the Southern
Mainland. The current leading edge of the warm front has reached
50N with the base of this surge of warm air tapping a
latitudinal deep 20N. Meanwhile, the remnants of a once deep and
unusually strong polar vortex continues to support bitterly cold
air which is pouring into the Bering Sea from interior Alaska and
Southwest Alaska. 850 hpa temps over Southwest are as low as -35C
which, to be honest, is getting into the
-3.5 sigma territory. This deep and cold arctic trough with polar
 origins is centered over the Kusko Delta, with a lobe of this
 trough moving north up Cook Inlet. Finally, a weakening closed
 circulation in Prince William Sound is moving inland across Prince
 William Sound this morning, which is spreading snow showers
 inland from the Kenai Peninsula inland to the Copper Basin. This
 boundary between warm and moist Pacific air and bitterly cold
 arctic/polar air will set the stage for more active weather
 across the whole Mainland the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are doing a great job of setting the overall
large scale synoptic pattern for the upcoming wild weather in
store for Southern Alaska, but they are doing an absolutely
terrible job with the finer scale details which will have large
and important sensible weather differences after today. The
biggest differences for Southcentral revolve around how much warm
air moves inland as a series of fast moving impulses move up Cook
Inlet through Tuesday. Timing and placement make all the
difference in terms of how much the arctic air is eroded, which
also impacts what type of precipitation will fall. The scenarios
range from possible freezing rain, to rain, to a rain/snow mix
Monday and Monday night. For now a middle ground approach will be
taken which will support a slower warm-up and most of the "warm"
air (likely above freezing for many areas) coming Tuesday.

For Southwest Alaska, the GFS and ECMWF are much more aggressive
developing a more powerful warm front and associated deformation
zone aloft across the Kusko Delta on Monday night and Tuesday.
With very cold air and strong northerly winds still at the
surface, this pattern as progged by these models would support a
significant blizzard. For now, the current forecast is taking a
middle ground, but should things shift west, this could be a
significant concern for parts of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Active weather will impact the TAF for the next day and a
half as snow moves into the terminal late this morning, then followed
by increasing low level wind shear as the snow ends by the
afternoon. Expect brief IFR conditions in snow this morning before
it ends. Southerly winds move into the terminal late Sunday night
into Monday morning along with light rain. Conditions should
remain VFR by then, although CIGS will likely drop below 5000
feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong weather system currently southwest of Kodiak Island will
rapidly move northeast. Strong winds will spread across the Gulf
today. Winds will increase through Turnagain Arm and the Upper
Hillside of Anchorage this afternoon and continue through tonight,
with Gusts to 70 mph possible. Considerable precipitation is
expected with this system over the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Precipitation will begin as all snow, but change to rain for
coastal areas sometime later today or tonight. Some blowing snow
is possible over all of the Kenai, especially this afternoon and
evening. For areas around Cook Inlet, the precipitation type will
be a challenge late tonight and Monday morning. The air aloft
will warm quite considerably, but at the surface may remain below
freezing for a while before some southerly winds kick in and mix
out the colder air. Therefore a mix of snow, rain, and freezing
rain is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Bone chilling temperatures are expected to continue across the
region as arctic air holds in place. Overnight -29F was observed
at Sleetmute and
-22F was observed at Bethel. The models keep that arctic low in
 the vicinity of Nunivak and then it shifts to the eastern Bering
 and then comes back over Western Alaska on Monday. All the while,
 energy from the North Pacific will under cut this arctic feature
 enhancing the chances for precipitation and airmass
 modification. Late Monday and Tuesday the models bring a full
 blown intact frontal system into into southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The unsettled pattern will continue for the next few days as
wintery weather impacts the Bering and Aleutian Chain. On
satellite imagery there is an occluded front spanning much of the
Aleutians. Gale force winds will continue today. As the frontal
system moves eastward, northerly flow will set up and persist
through Tuesday. A dome of high pressure will approach the Western
Aleutians Monday but looking upstream there is already another
cyclone churning up over the Sea Of Okhotsk.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Tuesday through Thursday)

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

Northerly gales and seas 15 to 25 feet will continue across the
eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians on Tuesday as low
pressure south of the AKPEN moves toward Kodiak Island. For the
western Bering, winds and seas will relax as a ridge builds over
the region. The gales diminish in coverage on Wednesday as the
low enters the Gulf and the ridge expands eastward over the
central Bering. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a band of
southeasterly gales will develop ahead of a front will moving over
the Western Bering and Aleutians.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Broad southerly small-craft level winds, with perhaps some
embedded gales, will persist across the Gulf on Tuesday as a front
lifts toward the Southcentral coast. An area of westerly gales
will expand across the western and southern Gulf late Tuesday
into Wednesday as the low south of the AKPEN lifts toward a
position near Kodiak Island. These winds will continue into
Thursday as the low tracks in the northern Gulf. Sea will range
from 15 to 25 feet across the Gulf through late Thursday before
diminishing the low tracks toward the Alaska Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

The active weather pattern that has been so persistent for well
over a week now will continue into the new year. By Tuesday, the
main weather feature will be a 960 to 970 mb low spinning up in
the north Pacific south of the eastern Aleutians with yet another
arctic trough digging south over the Bering. As has been the case,
model performance this far out has varied considerably. Thus,
confidence in the evolution of this surface low and its
interaction with the digging trough remains low. With that said,
it does appear that this system will bring accumulating snow and
strong northeasterly winds to portions of Southwest Alaska. The
main difference between the models is track and timing, and these
variables will impact where the heaviest bands of snow set up.
Right now, this could be anywhere from along the Alaska Range
north to Bethel.

For Southcentral, Tuesday will also be quite active as a series of
shortwaves ahead of the aforementioned low ushers in bands of
precipitation and much warmer air with a continued southerly
flow. It is hard to believe right now with so much cold air in
place, but this system looks to push temperatures above freezing
not just for the immediate coast, but also for areas farther
inland and around Cook Inlet. Obviously, any mention of
temperatures above freezing will mean a changeover in
precipitation from snow to a wintry mix or even all rain. The big
question remains how much of this precipitation makes over the
mountains and into places like Anchorage, as there will also be a
downslope component accompanying these shortwaves which will help
limit precipitation amounts. The warmer temperatures and mixed
precipitation will continue into Wednesday as the main low tracks
into the Gulf.

Conditions then turn colder and more showery for the second half
of the week as the low tracks south and a ridge develops over
interior Alaska. This set up will usher in colder air across the
Southern Mainland as northerly outflow winds pick up in intensity.
By the weekend, it appears the Southern Mainland will remain cold
and fairly dry. The active weather will stay over the Bering and
Aleutians where a series of surface fronts attached to a Kamchatka
Low pass over the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory: 145.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 119.
Gale Warning: 120 125 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 165 170 171 172
173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 351 352 411 412 413 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160 165 179 180 181 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM