Storm Warning 190, NWS Anchorage, AK

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 161245
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170145-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the eastern Bering will dissipate by Mon afternoon. 
A complex 974 mb low currently 150 nm S of Shemya will move to 
250 nm NW of Atka at 970 mb Mon afternoon. The low then moves 310 
nm SE of Cold Bay at 968 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-170145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 15 kt. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20
kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170145-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170145-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 22 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170145-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170145-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

285 
FZAK52 PAFC 170000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 mb low 40 nm south of Dutch Harbor Mon night will move 200
nm SE of Port Heiden at 972 mb Tue afternoon. The low will then 
move south of the Gulf Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15
kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt except N 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 20 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large, mature low pressure system can be seen on satellite
moving slowly northwest in the western Gulf of ALaska. Its
occluded front is pushing north through Kodiak and towards the
southcentral coast. This low is a closed low both aloft at 500MB
and at the surface. High pressure still hangs on inland north of
the low. The pressure gradient between the two is creating some
gusty winds in the Susitna Valley south to the Kenai Peninsula.

Out in the Bering, a weak low spins over the eastern Aleutians,
causing low clouds and rain there. There is a shortwave ridge
currently over the central Aleutians, providing a brief break in
the weather there. This ridge is sandwiched between the low to the
east and the next big system that is just approaching the western
Aleutians this morning. This low is another large and occluded low
moving through the north Pacific. A triple point low can be seen
via satellite beginning to form as it moves into our forecast area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good agreement. Some disagreement exists
with the low center position and movement of the low that is
currently in the Gulf of Alaska. However, the disagreement is not
enough to make much of difference in the forecast. Therefore, we
are confident in the forecast through the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Southerly
winds just above the airfield should diminish enough early this
morning to eliminate low level wind shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong low south of Kodiak Island will merge with the low near
Dutch Harbor this afternoon bringing the new low center over the
Alaska Peninsula. The front associated with the Kodiak low is what
will have the greatest impact on Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf
region today through tonight.

There is a bit of warm air associated with this front which will
keep precipitation all rain at lower elevations along the gulf
coast. However, the low center pulling back to the southwest will
keep this warmer air from penetrating too far inland. This will
also allow cooler air from inland to change precipitation to snow
over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. One of the bigger challenges
for this forecast package was to determine the elevation at which
the precipitation should go from rain to snow and if that will be
low enough to bring the snow to the Sterling Highway in Turnagain
Pass. At this time it looks like it should be mostly rain into
this evening with any snow melting on contact with the ground.
However, precipitation may quickly turn to snow overnight through
Turnagain Pass.

By Monday, the merged low over the Alaska Peninsula from this
afternoon will have weakened as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska.
The front will also be much weaker, though it will remain along
the north gulf coast. It looks unlikely for any significant
precipitation to make it across the coastal mountains into inland
areas over the next two days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Active weather continues over Southwest Alaska today as a front
associated with a complex low moves in from the southeast. Gusty
southeasterly winds and rain are expected across the Alaska
Peninsula today. Farther north over the Kuskokwim Delta,
temperatures will be cold enough for snow. Current thinking is
that as the front passes through later this afternoon, trace
amounts of snowfall are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. As
the low drifts south Sunday night into Monday, winds will weaken
and precipitation will taper off. Some scattered showers of mixed
precipitation are possible Monday night into Tuesday over the
interior areas of Bristol Bay, otherwise general offshore flow is
expected to persist through Tuesday ahead of another front that
moves in from the west by Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A 970 mb low is still centered just north of Unalaska Island. It
is starting to drift southward, and will eventually phase with a
second low (located south of Kodiak Island and moving northward)
late this morning. The biggest forecast update made overnight was
to keep the boundary of strong westerly winds just west of Dutch
Harbor. It has been a challenge to pinpoint exactly where the low
center will track as models have struggled to resolve this.

This newly phased low will then move over the AKPEN and
eventually into the Gulf, but not before generating some gusty
northerly flow over the central and eastern Aleutians this
afternoon. Temperatures will generally be warm enough for rain,
though a brief change to snow cannot be ruled out over the central
Aleutians later today as colder air gets pulled in from the
north. The next storm in the Bering arrives over the western
Aleutians this afternoon, spreading in another round of southerly
gales over the central Aleutians Mon night into Tue morning. As
the low center tracks eastward, reaching the central Aleutians by
Tue morning, colder northerly flow on the backside will bring
stronger gusts to the western Aleutians for Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian
Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft
advisories to gale warnings are expected as this low pressure
system moves through. Additionally, expect light to heavy freezing
spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The global models are in decent agreement with the longwave
pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Friday December
20th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows,
one near Kodiak and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis
between the two systems. There are some minor differences with
the timing of two different surface lows but the forecast
intensity is only a few millibars off and the forecast track is
very similar. Overall, the run to run continuity with these two
lows has been decent. Expect these systems to move from west to
east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf of Alaska and
later towards SE AK. All the while, the second storm will head
into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the
Aleutian chain. Again, for the Anchorage metro area the chances of
snow in this forecast period range from zero to slight chance.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM: 119 120 130 131
         GALE:  125 132 136-139 141 155 160 165 170 172-178
                351 352 411 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS