Storm Warning 182, NWS Anchorage, AK

439 
FZAK52 PAFC 090011
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091315-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front across the central Bering Sea Sun afternoon will 
dissipate Mon morning. A 959 mb low 190 nm SE of Cold Bay Sun
night will move 153 nm NW of Cold Bay at 951 mb Mon afternoon. The
low will then continue into the northern Bering Tue afternoon.  

$$

PKZ150-091315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
N wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091315-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, NE wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 20 kt increasing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091315-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt, except 15 kt W of Seguam Island. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091315-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091315-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft 
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

322 
FZAK52 PAFC 091228
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100145-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 957 mb low over Port Heiden moves 200 nm east of Saint Paul 
Island at 952 mb Mon afternoon. The low then moves 400 nm north of
Saint Paul Island at 960 mb Tue afternoon. Its associated gale 
force front remains over the western Bering through Tue night. A 
front approaches the eastern Bering from the North Pacific Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ150-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100145-
Bristol Bay-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt 
becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100145-
Unalaska Bay-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100145-
Adak to Kiska-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100145-
Kiska to Attu-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A high amplitude pattern has set up with a ridge axis over eastern
Alaska and longwave trough axis bisecting the central Aleutians.
There is a potent jet core south of the Aleutians with an
intensity of 170+ knots. A fetch of warm air is pushing up the
Cook Inlet. This morning the observed temperature at Seldovia was
52 degrees Fahrenheit. On the latest satellite imagery there is a
low near Kodiak and another low near Nunivak Island. The
precipitation shield spans from the central Bering across
Southwest Alaska into portions of Southcentral and back into the
north Pacific. Meanwhile farther west, a low continues to spin
near Attu Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to move towards a consensus with the primary
surface lows that will impact AK over the next couple of days.
They have all converged on a solution that carries tonight's
system up through the Kenai Peninsula and Northern Cook Inlet.
Then, shifting to the storm on Sun night, there is some marginal
discrepancy between the NAM and some of the other models on the
exact strength and track of the low as it hugs the Western AK
coast. In general though, most of the impacts associated with this
would be much the same. However, we will continue to refine the
track to assess the need for any High Wind Warnings or Winter
Weather products. The higher resolution guidance was used this
afternoon to hone in on a deformation band of snow setting up
across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Wind shear remains the main concern today as winds at the
terminal will remain out of the north with stronger southeasterly
flow aloft and over the Turnagain Arm. As a frontal boundary
approaches tonight, it will bring southeast winds into the
airport. The timing of these winds could vary by an hour or two.
There will be a brief shot of precipitation as the front passes
through that could briefly lower the ceilings.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An active weather pattern will continue through early next week.
Strong southerly flow aloft is advecting a stream of subtropical
moisture into Southcentral this evening. Rain, heavy at times, is
occurring over the southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound. Snow is seen farther north in the western Susitna Valley as
well as wind gusts up to 55 mph over Turnagain Arm. All of this
will continue though Sunday morning as the associated low tracks
northward. Precipitation will remain all rain over the Kenai
Peninsula. Surface temperatures are expected to remain at or just
above freezing overnight across the Anchorage Bowl and much of the
Mat-Su. However, some models are hinting at slightly cooler air
briefly building in behind the aforementioned low. As such,
precipitation type north of and including Anchorage remains
somewhat uncertain. Given the current southeasterly surface winds,
much areas from approximately from the city of Kenai northward
will be downsloped for the majority of the event. Thus, any
wintery mix that does occur early Sunday morning will be light and
likely short-lived.

After a break midday Sunday, a second similar system will
approach Southcentral in the evening. This will again bring
strong winds along Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside by
early Monday morning. With the exception of higher elevations, an
all rain event is expected, with several inches possible over the
southern Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Active weather continues across Southwest as the relentless North
Pacific wave-train of lows continues to barrage the region. One
departing strong gale force low is now lifting into the Bering
Strait, bringing strong southerly winds to the Kusko Delta while
another deformation zone tracks north into the Bristol Bay and
Kusko Valley. This second feature will bring rain/snow mix
turning to snow over the eastern Bristol Bay area and Alaska
Range, with heavier snow over the Kusko Valley. The bulk of snow
ends tonight with a brief respite in weather Sunday. Very quickly
Sunday evening and Sunday night, the next storm force low barrels
into the Bristol Bay region with the front plowing across
Southwest, bringing snow which will then transition to rain
(mainly over Bristol Bay). The bigger impact will be snow and
blowing snow once again over the Kusko Delta, however, this time,
there will likely be limited amounts of snow before the front
clears into the Bering Sea. However, with 35+ MPH winds, there
will likely be reduced visibility in brief heavy snow Sunday night
and Monday morning. Powerful E-SE winds will also blast through
parts of the region with this low, especially across Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Range where wind gusts will reach 60+ MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

One storm force low departs the Bering into the Strait, another is
right on its heels Sunday evening as it moves into Bristol Bay
and slowly tracks northward through Monday. This will bring more
rain/snow quickly turning to all rain to the Eastern Aleutians.
Broad cyclonic flow will remain over the Bering Sea as the low
tracks north, with cold air advection rain/snow showers spreading
over the remainder of the Chain and Bering Sea.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

An area of low pressure near Nunivak Island early Tuesday morning
will bring high sustained gale force winds to the eastern Bering
Sea and Bristol Bay region, with perhaps some low-end storm force
winds just offshore from the Kuskokwim Delta. This low will then
retrograde (move west) and slowly weaken as it reaches Saint
Matthew Island by evening, with the winds having subsided to less
than 30 knots by then. For the remainder of the region, winds and
waves will generally be less than 25 knots with waves generally
less than 15 feet. This will continue into Wednesday and Thursday
for all of the forecast area.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Sustained storm force winds ahead of a surface front will plague
the northern Gulf early Tuesday morning. A favorable dynamic fetch
ahead of this feature will allow seas to build into the 25 to 30
feet range. These winds will rapidly drop to the small craft
variety by the afternoon, as the best dynamics associated with the
front pushes inland. The wave heights will also drop due to the
decrease in wind energy.

This reprieve will be short- lived though, as yet another front,
associated with a north Pacific low, moves into the region late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Sustained winds will increase to
gale force, with the long fetch allowing waves to once again
increase into the 20 to 25 feet range.

Heading into Thursday, both the waves and winds will subside as a
weakening area of low pressure enters the southwestern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast remains fraught with uncertainty due to model
discrepancy, but some items remain consistent. Synoptically, a
progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska.
Starting Tuesday, a vertically stacked low will drift to the
northern Bering, steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians
and Bering. The low will gradually weaken and shift towards
Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of
the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a North Pacific
low will drift northward and push a warm occluded front toward the
Southern Mainland. Models are consistent bringing decent
precipitation to the AKPEN/eastern Aleutians, but how far north
and east precipitation reaches is tough to discern, given the lack
of consistency with track of the steering low and potential for a
triple-point low to develop. But, right now it looks likely that
the North Gulf Coast will see precipitation as a front pushes
north in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. By Friday, a strong
low will approach the western Aleutians and bring a good swath of
precipitation and gusty winds. The front will quickly traverse the
chain Friday, possibly turning the Southwest Mainland wet
Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW 155.
MARINE...Storms 120 130-132 138 352.
         Gales 119 125 139-141 150 155 160 165 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM/PD