Storm Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

764 
FZAK62 PAFC 202356
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211400-
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 mb low over the North Pacific Fri night moves to 53N 179W 
at 964 mb Sat afternoon. This low then moves to 56N 169W at 966 
mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 10 to 13 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 20 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
256 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK62 PAFC 211238
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220145-
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low over the North Pacific Sat morning moves to 53N 180W
at 960 mb Sat afternoon. This low then moves to 56N 170W at 966 
mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 21 to 35 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft building to 24 to 27 ft
in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
Rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft building to 18 to 33 ft after midnight.
Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 50 to 65 kt gusting to 80kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft. Rain 
showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
Snow and rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. 
Rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

611 
FZAK62 PAFC 212354
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221415-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low at 53N 180W Sat afternoon will move to 56N 170W Sun
afternoon. The low then moves over Bristol Bay at 970 mb Mon
afternoon. A second 992 mb North Pacific Low at 50N 180W Sun
afternoon will move to 54N 165W Sun night. This low will then
become absorbed into the low over Bristol Bay Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt becoming N 50 to 65 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 85 kt after midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SUN...NW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and widespread
rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 38 ft subsiding to 24
to 28 ft after midnight. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

958 
FZAK62 PAFC 221204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230145-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 55N 176W Sun morning will move to 56N 170W Sun 
afternoon. The low then moves over Bristol Bay at 970 mb Mon 
afternoon. A second 992 mb North Pacific Low at 50N 177W Sun 
afternoon will move to 51N 174W Sun night. This low will then 
become absorbed into the low over Bristol Bay Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Rain 
showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 38 ft subsiding to 24 to
28 ft after midnight.  and rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

824 
FZAK62 PAFC 230021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231400-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 56N 168W Sun afternoon moves to 58N 157W at 976 
mb Mon afternoon. A 989 mb low at 46N 179E Mon afternoon moves to
51N 169W at 973 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKST Thu Dec 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IR satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show an
expansive area arctic air encompassing the northern two thirds of
the state. While the crux of this airmass remains north of the
Alaska Range, some of the arctic air continues to filter into the
Kuskokwim Delta and Copper River Basin, where temperatures this
afternoon remain well below zero. A thin band of mid-level clouds
stretching from Paxson to Cooper River (with some light snow in
Eureka) marks the position of an upper-level trough, and is
progressing slowly eastward across Southcentral. This feature is
helping drive the arctic air farther south, with no noticeable
uptick in daytime temperatures across the northern and western
portions of the Susitna Valley, even with the low-angle, yet
abundant, wintertime sun. Northerly winds, while still light, are
also increasing behind this trough.

Farther south, a decaying surface low continues to spin over the
extreme southern Gulf. This feature remains nearly stationary as
it remains cut off from the main upper-level jet positioned over
the northern Pacific with a jet streak of 150kts entering the
Pacific Northwest. A series of shortwaves associated with this low
continue to produce scattered showers along the immediate
Prince William Sound coast as they move east to west across the
northern Gulf. Gusty northerly winds also continue to increase
this afternoon along the southcentral coast as both the pressure
and thermal gradients between the main Gulf low and the arctic
ridge strengthen.

Farther west, a mix of rain and snow showers, along with northerly
wind gusts, continues across the eastern Aleutians and southern
AKPEN as colder air dives south behind a shortwave. A gale-force
front is positioned between Adak and the Pribilofs and is tracking
east across the Bering. This front is associated with a deepening
Kamchatka low situated along the Russian coast. Its trailing cold
front is advancing toward Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in decent agreement through Sunday. The ensemble
members of the GFS continue to tightly cluster through 18z Sunday
but shifts out of phase with the deterministic runs of the GFS and
EC by Monday. All guidance, however, indicate a shift in the main
trough from the western Bering to western Alaska by early next
week. This would bring a return of more active weather to
Southcentral by early next week. This lends to an above average
forecast confidence through the weekend with a diminishing level
confidence beyond that time.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are likely to persist. There is the
potential for fog and low stratus to again form along the Knik Arm
by mid-morning Friday. If this does occur, a light northerly wind
may transport any fog / low stratus over the airport complex by
late Friday morning. Confidence in this is very low, however, and
is currently dealt with using "VCFG". Light winds are expected,
generally out of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An Arctic trough will continue to move south across Southcentral
Alaska this evening. Colder temperatures accompany this trough,
along with clearing conditions as light snow tapers off tonight
over the Copper River Basin. This cold air advection pattern is
favorable for gusty conditions through mountain gaps and bays
along the coast. These winds will taper down for a short time on
Friday afternoon before quickly returning on Saturday when the
next cold air advection event swings into the region from western
Alaska, which will help reinforce the cold air that is already in
place. Strongest winds associated with this event will be over the
western Gulf. As the cold air settles in over the weekend, low
temperatures will be the coldest seen so far this season.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Cold and dry conditions will persist over Southwest overnight
tonight as an upper level ridge moves farther inland over the
mainland. Elevated northerly winds through the usual gaps and
passes along the Alaska Peninsula will eventually diminish this
evening. A front in the central Bering reaches the Southwest coast
this evening, though in a weaker state. Nunivak Island may see
some snowfall starting this evening and by Friday, areas across
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast may see some snowfall as well, though no
significant accumulations are expected. As the front continues to
move inland, westerly/northwesterly flow aloft will bring in
colder air, leading to generally colder temperatures across
Southwest for the weekend. By Sunday, the next system approaches,
bringing gusty southeasterly flow to the southern Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A gale force front over the central Bering will continue to move
eastward this evening. Showers will persist over the Bering for
Friday ahead of an incoming storm force low. This low will arrive
over the western Aleutians late Friday into early Saturday
bringing southeasterly winds and rain as it advances eastward
through the day Saturday. The strongest winds will be on the
backside of the low with hurricane force gusts expected Saturday
afternoon over the Rat Islands and western Andreanof Islands,
including Adak. In addition to strong winds and high waves,
blowing snow and blizzard conditions are possible over the western
Aleutians Saturday evening. Please stay tuned to the forecast as
we continue to make updates as we have more information on where
exactly this strong area of low pressure is tracking.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
A storm force low will track from the western Aleutians to the
southern Bering Sea Saturday into Sunday. Expect widespread storms
and gales over the Bering and Aleutians, with the strongest winds
on the south side of the low, i.e., near the Aleutians with 40
foot combined seas possible. Farther east, Arctic high pressure
inland will facilitate strong offshore flow along the North Gulf
Coast. Expect gusty winds over the Barren Islands and out of the
Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay and in the Valdez
Narrows/Valdez Arm Sunday. Conditions will become more benign
Monday into Tuesday... the Bering low will weaken and move inland,
and several weaker lows will develop in the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Sunday, the regional
upper air pattern will already be undergoing a rather dramatic
change as the mainland will be dominated by arctic troughing. This
is a huge change from the last several months (arguably, the
least year and a half) which has seen incredible and unprecedented
anomalous upper level ridging. Over the Bering Sea, there will be
a weakening storm force low with the front moving into the Gulf
of Alaska as a triple point low by Sunday afternoon and evening.
Besides below average temps over the entire Mainland, expect
increasing threats for accumulating snowfall as these warm fronts
move up along the North Gulf Coast, in conjunction with an arctic
trough over the western half of the Mainland. By Monday large
enough differences among the global models lends to increasing
disagreement with the placement of a mainland arctic trough,
which, as usual, dictates snowfall potential inland. The ECMWF is
most bullish developing an arctic trough farther south across
Southwest Alaska whereas the GFS and Canadian develop it farther
north, which effectively allows for more southeast cross-barrier
flow and warmer temps. The ECMWF would result in colder temps
lasting all week, along with much higher chances for accumulating
snow across large swaths of the Mainland. The GFS and Canadian
also support snow, but would be more localized and harder to
predict in their projected patterns. The takeaway: wintry weather
is here for the Christmas holiday week and the potential for
accumulating snowfall exists across the entire southern Mainland
region. Expect an active low track along the Aleutian Chain as
well as colder air shunts the storm track southward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 121 127 130 131 138 150 176>178 181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM/JA