Storm Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

773 
FZAK52 PAFC 260018
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261245-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front moves across the Bering Mon afternoon through 
Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-261245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261245-
Bristol Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. From
Port
Moller E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261245-
Unalaska Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 
ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261245-
Adak to Kiska-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261245-
Kiska to Attu-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

322 
FZAK52 PAFC 261236
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-270200-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front moves across the Bering Mon afternoon through Tue 
afternoon. A low approaches the Alaska Peninsula Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ150-270200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-270200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. W of the Shumagin Islands, N wind 20 kt 
increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-270200-
Bristol Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-270200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 15 kt becoming
NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-270200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 14 
ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-270200-
Unalaska Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-270200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-270200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-270200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-270200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-270200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-270200-
Adak to Kiska-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-270200-
Kiska to Attu-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-270200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-270200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-270200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-270200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 28 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Moist air overrunning the the Copper River Basin, which brought
significant snowfall overnight, is weakening as cloud tops are
warming. Otherwise, the broad upper low extending from the
southwest interior continues to progress very slowly east.
Instability associated with the cold upper center brought
widespread showers from the Bering Sea to over the Gulf of Alaska
with lesser aerial coverage over land. Showers were mainly snow
across the Bering Sea and the Mainlands and more mixed rain and
snow over the Gulf waters. Gusty outflow conditions continued
across the western Gulf and Barren Islands as cold air squeezed
through gaps in the Aleutian Range. Satellite imagery shows a
developing low and associated front just entering the far western
Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall have similar and reasonable solutions with the
storm force front moving east across the Bering Sea tonight
through Tuesday. The bigger differences, which affect
Southcentral, center on the potential of a wave developing along
the front over the north Pacific and it pushing moisture into
Southcentral Tuesday and Wednesday. The ECMWF and 12z NAM develop
this low and spread overrunning snow into the Southcentral(west of
the Copper River Basin) Tuesday night and Monday. The GFS is
significantly slower and on the dry side for the MAT_SU Valleys.
We are currently leaning toward the ECMWF and NAM solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Other than a few passing showers this afternoon, VFR
conditions and light winds should persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper-level low moving across Southcentral will continue to
produce bands of scattered snow showers along the Kenai Mountains
north over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley through the
evening hours. As this low continues to track east over the Copper
River Basin then southeast toward the Alaska Peninsula, a ridge
will will begin to amplify in its wake. The resulting northerly
flow will begin to usher in much colder air across the region
beginning tonight. This colder air will remain in place into mid-
week before a storm system moves in from the west for Wednesday.

In addition to the colder air, the resulting pressure and thermal
gradients will produce gusty northerly outflow winds across the
Southcentral Coast, as well as through mountain passes. The winds
will ramp up later tonight and peak Sunday night before slowly
winding down Monday as the upper-level ridge ridge crests
overhead.

Then all eyes turn to a north Pacific low phasing with a second
system further upstream over the Bering. This system is expected
to then push into the western Gulf on Tuesday and over much of
Southcentral by Wednesday. With plenty of arctic air in place,
this system has the potential to produce widespread accumulating
snow from the eastern Kenai Peninsula north to the Susitna Valley.

With that said, though, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the timing and evolution of this complex system, not to
mention exact snow amounts. Of course, we will be monitoring this
closely as this could impact travel during the Thanksgiving
holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of ridging lies over the eastern Bering, with some
shortwave ripples in the mean flow sparking isolated snow showers
in southwest Alaska this afternoon. As the ridge moves eastward, a
960 mb Kamchatka low will bring a storm force front across the
Bering over the next 48 hours. Arrival in southwest Alaska will
take place Monday evening with coastal flooding possible in the
Kusko Delta coastal area Monday evening through Tuesday evening
and north of Cape Newenham Tuesday morning. Coastal flooding will
be at its peak during the high tide cycles. Expecting some areas
of snow and blowing snow Monday night and Tuesday in the Kusko
Valley with a rain snow mix in the Kusko Delta. Models have backed
off of precipitation quantities in the last 24 hours and the
extent of snow to be blown around will depend on the mixture of
rain and snow. Southwest Alaska will see some isolated snow, but
the majority of precipitation stays to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The 960 mb Kamchatka low will move from the western Bering this
evening with storm force winds in the central Bering by Monday
evening. Storm force winds will be short-lived and diminish by
Tuesday morning as the system passes the Pribilof Islands, but
gales will impact the entire Aleutian chain tonight through
Tuesday morning, as well as the eastern Bering into Tuesday
evening. Expect areas of snow showers behind the front with a
strong push of cold air.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Southerly gales are expected to spread from west to east across
the Bering and Aleutians Thursday and Friday as a front works its
way across the area. Northerly Gales are expected south of the
eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on Thursday and Friday with
strong inflow into a low over the southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Shortwave energy initially over the eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea
into the North Pacific on Wednesday should progress eastward and
weaken while a mid-latitude system to the south remains separated
from most of this energy and eventually drops southeastward.
Toward the end of the week and weekend the pattern will become
more dominated by a deep upper low moving into or just inland from
the extreme western/northern Bering. The overall trough containing
the upper low should extend south into the mid-latitude Pacific,
with the trough axis most likely reaching the eastern Bering
around next Mon. Expect a downstream ridge aloft to cross the
mainland around Fri-Sat and continue into western Canada. For the
southern Alaska mainland this will lead to a warming trend
Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer than normal temperatures
continuing through the weekend. Precipitation type will therefore
be an issue for most of the extended forecast.

Operational model runs and individual ensemble members display a
decent amount of spread and run-to-run variability to temper
confidence in the forecast, and thus it is a little below
average.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Coastal Flood Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177>179.
 Gale Warning 127 130>132 138 165 170 173>176 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LB
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL