Storm Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

073 
FZAK62 PAFC 250052
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251400-
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb North Kamchatka low extends a front over the Bering 
through Tue afternoon. A 996 mb South Kamchatka low moves along 
the trailing front to 65N 176E Tue morning at 955 mb then to the 
Russian Chukchi Coast at 968 mb by Tue afternoon. Its strong front
pushes to the Eastern Bering for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft building to 23 to 28
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft building to 21 to 30 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 32 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKST Sun Nov 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 20 ft, except 6 to 14 ft E of 167W.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK62 PAFC 251254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260200-
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front moves across the Bering through Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft building to 23 to
28 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 45 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 to 24 ft building to 22 to 30 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 23 to 31 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

092 
FZAK62 PAFC 260018
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261345-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front moves across the Bering Mon afternoon through 
Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 31 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

785 
FZAK62 PAFC 261236
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270200-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front moves across the Bering through Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-270200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
920 PM AKST Sat Nov 23 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Broad upper cyclonic flow with embedded waves is bringing
continued unsettled weather across much of southern Mainland,
Gulf of Alaska, and the Bering Sea/Aleutians today. In the east,
there is a fairly organized area of showers(mainly rain) over the
Gulf of Alaska and North Gulf Coast moving north associated with a
surface low and weak frontal boundary. Out west, cooler air
moving over a warm water surface is producing a broad area of
mostly open cell cumulus clouds associated with snow showers.
Satellite imagery shows that these clouds/showers extend across
much of the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in generally good synoptic agreement through
Monday across Southcentral with shower placement the only real
struggle. Out west, timing issues continue somewhat with winds
and a precipitation shield with next front moving across the
Bering Sea late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Some gusty southerly winds are
possible this evening, otherwise light winds are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Cyclonic flow around a surface low south of the Copper River
Delta will continue to push moisture in the form of coastal rain
showers and higher elevation snow showers over Prince William
Sound through the overnight hours. As a supporting upper-level
wave lifts north this evening, additional moisture will move into
the Copper River Basin, producing areas of light snow through
Sunday afternoon. Upstream, additional upper-level shortwaves will
slide from the AKPEN across the northern Gulf.

The first shortwave will move across the Barren Islands tonight,
with strong westerly winds developing in its wake. The
combination of persistent wind and cold air advection will produce
bands of snow showers across the mouth of Cook Inlet, with
periods of light snow for the Homer / Seldovia area through
Sunday night. The second wave will be the main upper-level low as
it begins to shear apart and transition to an open wave as it
moves across Southcentral. This feature will also enhance snow
shower activity for portions of the Susitna Valley, the western
Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl on Sunday. Right now, it looks
as though most of the snow showers will fall along the upslope
side of the mountains, but there remains the potential for a
light dusting of snow over lower elevations.

As the trough exits and a ridge builds to the north and west,
colder air will begin to spill south from the interior with a
noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday. In addition, the
increasing pressure and thermal gradients between the cold ridge
inland and the warmer trough over the eastern Gulf will produce
gusty northerly outflow winds. These winds will be strongest
through the bays and passes of Prince William Sound, as well as
Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. Winds will also remain
quite through Kamishak Bay and across the Barren Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold temperatures and snow showers continue across Southwest
Alaska this afternoon associated with an upper level trough. On
Sunday, snow showers begin to diminish across the region,
resulting in little, if any, new accumulations for the Southwest
through the overnight hours as the upper level trough exits the
region. However, high temperatures will stay well below freezing
on Sunday for most of the area, with only the Alaska Peninsula
seeing temperatures near or slightly above freezing.

The main focus of today's forecast is the next big pattern change
beginning on Monday when the next big system enters for forecast
area. A front, associated with a storm force low in the western
Bering, will begin to impact the Southwest coast by Monday morning
when stronger winds begin to move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay coastline. The front will begin to bring
precipitation to the Kuskokwim Delta by late Monday morning and
work its way inland to the remainder of the region through the
afternoon.

With cold temperatures already in place, precipitation will
initially start off as snow on Monday, but will quickly transition
over to rain as this warm front brings in warming temperatures.
There is high confidence that this new system will be a warm one,
but there is still uncertainty is the exact timing of when snow
changes over to rain and whether there will be a period of
rain/snow mix as the front moves inland. This leads to less
confidence in the amount of snowfall that will result before
switching over to rain, but areas across the Kuskokwim Valley
could likely see a few inches. The timing of the snow to rain and
snowfall amounts will continue to be looked at over the next few
forecasts when models come into better agreement.

Coastal flood watches have been issued for the Kuskokwim Bay
coast from Hooper Bay south to Cape Newenham due to higher
confidence in gale force winds, and likely storm force gusts, that
will impact the area. Water levels could rise 4 to 7 feet above
normal high tide beginning with the late evening high tide on
Monday. The highest surge potential is expected with the high
tides Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front over the eastern Bering this afternoon will begin to
weaken and diminish through Sunday morning. The focus quickly
shifts to a strong warm front entering the western Bering and
Aleutians for Sunday morning. The initial gale force front will
reach the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon, while storm force winds
begin to move over the western Aleutians. There could be a few
snow showers on the leading edge of this system, but widespread
rain is expected to accompany this warm system as it moves across
the region. Colder air and potential snow will follow behind this
front over the western Aleutians and Bering as colder air begins
to move into the region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Offshore flow tapers off Monday night, with small craft winds
expected across much of the Gulf. Locally elevated outflow winds
through channeled terrain may continue longer. A gale force front
moves into the Gulf by Wednesday morning.

For the Bering, storm force winds in the central Bering Monday evening
will spread eastward through Tuesday morning as the front moves
inland. Expect gales through Tuesday in the eastern Bering before
winds taper to small craft by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active pattern is expected to continue next week as an upper
level trough over the southern Mainland slowly moves eastward
Monday night. Meanwhile a large frontal system in the Bering lifts
over Southwest Monday evening into Tuesday bringing gusty winds
and heavy precipitation. As this system weakens, the remnants move
eastward and reach Southcentral Alaska by midweek. By this time,
a wave over the northern Pacific lifts northward and merges with
the remnant front. This will produce the next round of active
weather for the southern Mainland late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A warm front reaches the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
Island Wednesday morning and continues moving northeastward into
Southcentral by Thursday morning. With an ample moisture supply
from the Gulf, high precipitation rates are likely. The biggest
forecast challenge will be precipitation types and where the
rain/snow line sets up. By the end of the week, another strong
Bering low looks to usher in colder air over Southwest.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Coastal Flood Watch 155 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130>132 150 160 173 175 177>179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO