Storm Warning 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

956 
FZAK52 PAFC 251139
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-260015-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 949 mb low 190 nm northeast of Shemya Mon morning moves to 400
nm north of Shemya at 948 mb by Tue morning. The associated front
continues across the central Bering and Aleutians through Tue 
then weakens by Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ150-260015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-260015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 11 ft from the Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt except SW 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands 
W. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-260015-
Bristol Bay-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-260015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt becoming
SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-260015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-260015-
Unalaska Bay-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-260015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-260015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-260015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-260015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 60 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-260015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
36 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-260015-
Adak to Kiska-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
33 ft subsiding to 26 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-260015-
Kiska to Attu-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-260015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-260015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-260015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-260015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 AM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 55 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 19 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 33 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK52 PAFC 252345
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261300-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 946 mb low 395 nm West of Saint Matthew Island moves into Northern
Kamchatka at 958 mb for Tue morning. Its front wraps over the 
Western Aleutians and Bering and pushes into Western Alaska 
through Tue morning. A 954 mb low 555 nm Southwest of Attu and 
its front approach the Western Aleutians by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
Bristol Bay-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt
becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
Unalaska Bay-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
Adak to Kiska-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
Kiska to Attu-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 33 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level jet over the Bering continues to drive an occluded
front into the eastern Bering. A second front associated with a
North Pacific low is approaching the western Aleutians this
morning. And the ASCAT/advanced scatterometer which is a satellite
instrument has already detected storm force winds with this low.
A few showers have been detected by the Bethel radar (PABC) as the
remnants of a frontal boundary move across Southwest AK, however
significant accumulations were not observed. Temperatures across
the area have stayed warm. Yesterdays highs include 53F at
Wasilla, 50F at Palmer, 49F at Gulkana and 48F at Anchorage. Rain
and above normal temperatures continue across the North Gulf Coast
from a surface low that moved inland yesterday evening. A front
associated with a North Pacific low will be the key precipitation
and wind driver as it lifts across the Southcentral coast today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
For initialization purposes, the 6:26Z ASCAT pass was compared to
the placement of the progged surface lows at 6Z for the NAM, GFS
and ECMWF. The models did really well with the surface low south
of the Gulf of Alaska and capturing the wind shifts associated
with the front moving through the eastern Bering. The synoptic
features of the NAM, GFS and ECMWF are in sync through 6Z Tuesday
and then some divergence becomes apparent with the new low near
northern Japan, the surface low near NE Russia, and the centers
of anticyclonic circulation in the North Pacific at the surface.
The GFS ensemble members are reasonably well clustered early in
the forecast period, but not as harmonious as some of the previous
runs in the past week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally expecting VFR conditions this TAF package.
Overnight, the cigs at PAMR and PANC ranged from 5,000 to 11,000
feet. Gusty winds were recorded at PANC for multiple
observations. The expectation is that the winds will lay down
around 12Z this morning and then pick up again this afternoon.
However, there are some confidence issues with the early portion
of this TAF package, and it is possible that the gusty winds may
linger after 13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front in the northern Gulf will slowly push inland today. Most
of the precipitation with this front will fall along the coast and
coastal mountains. Fairly breezy winds are expected over the
northern Gulf coast and through Turnagain Arm. As the front pushes
inland later today, southerly winds will increase across
Anchorage as well as the the Knik and Copper River valleys. This
front will push off to the northeast tonight, and upper level high
pressure will begin to build into the area. Conditions will become
dry on Monday across Southcentral as the ridge continues to build
strongly into the the Gulf and southern Alaska. Some patchy fog
is possible near Cook Inlet late Monday night with light winds
and clearing skies. Near the coast, offshore winds will develop.
These are not expected to be very strong as the air mass is fairly
and thus the winds will not be re-enforced by cold air.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

A fairly active pattern will continue through Monday as a series
of fronts push east from the Bering across the SW mainland. The
first front is already pushing across the Kuskokwim Delta coast
with a band of precip showing up on the Bethel radar over Nunivak
Island and Toksook Bay and SE winds ramp up above 30 mph. Precip
along the coast should remain mostly snow with temps at or just
above the freezing mark with colder air moving in aloft. The front
moves further inland through the day as it loses support and
dissipates bringing only light showers east of the Bethel area.

There will only be a quick break in the weather Sunday night
before a warm front well out ahead of a strong Bering Sea low
pushes north across the SW mainland. The warm front will be
accompanied with strong SE winds and a surge of warm air. Strong
cross barrier flow will lead to downsloping on the west side of
the Alaska and Aleutian ranges leading to unseasonably warm
temperatures for locations like King Salmon and Iliamna, where
high temps on Monday will likely break the 50 degree mark. A
strong cold front is expected to push across the coast by Monday
afternoon. Precipitation should remain mostly rain with warm
surface temps remaining until frontal passage, where snow may mix
in Monday night, but accumulations are not expected. The front
looks to rapidly weaken and fall apart as it moves inland, running
into an upper ridge upstream. By Tuesday, conditions should dry
out through the day as high pressure builds in at the surface.
Temperatures will return to normal as colder air filters in aloft
behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

A weakening surface low north of the Bering will continue to
produce southwesterly gale force winds across a large swath of the
western Bering through this morning before diminishing briefly
this afternoon. Attention turns to a rapidly strengthening surface
low approaching the western/central Aleutians from the North
Pacific. Satellite imagery shows the system rapidly developing a
couple hundred miles south of Attu moving northeast. The low is
ingesting cold air off of Siberia while being supported by a
strong 150 kt upper jet, forming in the favorable left-exit region
of the jet. The low is expected to cross the Aleutian Chain
between Attu and Adak Sunday night and enter the western Bering,
deepening to nearly 950 mb. Strong gale to storm force southerly
winds will spread across most of the Bering tomorrow night while a
core of even stronger southwesterly winds is expected to push
across the central Aleutians, especially near Adak, tomorrow
night. Cold air wrapping around the base of the low is expected to
enhance winds in this area, with gusts expected to be hurricane
force, thus a High Wind Watch was issued for Adak for tomorrow
night. The low will track north out of the Bering by Monday
afternoon, though gale force winds will remain across most of the
western Bering through Tuesday. Cold air under an upper low will
dominate the Bering leading to blustery and showery conditions.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Gulf of Alaska... Expect generally benign conditions, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding as pressure builds.

Bering Sea... Winds will diminish and seas will subside Tuesday as
the former storm force low continues to fill and shift northward.
Then, expect generally benign conditions, with one small caveat. A
low currently roughly 800 miles off the coast of Japan will track
northeastward through Thursday. Its expected trajectory is highly
uncertain, and it's possible that it will track far enough east to
bring gales to the western Aleutians and Bering Sea Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Confidence remains high that the long term period will begin with
an upper high over Southcentral that will slowly drift eastward,
and with a low upstream moving from the northern Pacific eastern
Siberia. Thus, expect dry weather, warm afternoons, and
relatively cold nights driven by limited cloud cover over
Southcentral and the southwest mainland. That said, with ample
surface moisture and atmospheric stability, there will also be
potential for morning fog, especially in Southcentral which could
decrease the diurnal temperature range. Farther west, a shortwave
trough will bring a brief round of precipitation and south winds
from west to east Wednesday, likely fizzling before reaching the
AKPEN.

Forecast uncertainty increases substantially Thursday. The
aforementioned low will either shift towards the Sea of Okhotsk,
or take a more eastward track towards the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The latter track would yield a wetter, windier pattern for the
Aleutians...and which progression actually occurs will depend on
what happens upstream, i.e., how far east the high over
Southcentral shifts. Unfortunately, models have little consistency
between runs, between models, and between ensemble members. So for
this forecast package, continued a blend with pops slowly
increasing from western Aleutians towards the AKPEN through
Saturday. Be sure to monitor the forecast as it will probably
change over the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 187.
MARINE...Gales 155 165 170 172 173 174 180 181 411 414.
		 Storms 175 176 177 178 179 185 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PAMBER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM