Storm Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

773 
FZAK52 PAFC 241156
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-250030-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central Bering moves inland by Sun afternoon. A
front moves over the central Aleutians by Sun afternoon. The
associated 964 mb low 260 nm south of Shemya Sun afternoon moves 
to 180 nm northwest of Adak at 954 mb by Mon morning and then 
moves into the northern Bering by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-250030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-250030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-250030-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-250030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 40 kt through bays and passes in the morning. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-250030-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-250030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt after 
midnight. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-250030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt with gusts to 70 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft building to 30 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-250030-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt after
midnight. Bering side, seas 13 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. 
Pacific side, seas 21 ft building to 32 ft after midnight. Rain 
showers.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Bering side, seas 24 ft. Pacific side, seas
34 ft subsiding to 27 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-250030-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-250030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-250030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-250030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Rain and
snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-250030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt. W of Saint
Matthew
Island, SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft building to 26 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

014 
FZAK52 PAFC 250005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-251245-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 335 nm South of Shemya moves to 360 nm North of
Amchitka at 948 mb Mon morning then shifts to Northern Kamchatka 
and inland at 958 mb for Tue morning. Its front sweeps the 
Aleutians and Bering through Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-251245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-251245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-251245-
Bristol Bay-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-251245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-251245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-251245-
Unalaska Bay-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-251245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-251245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-251245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-251245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 65 kt after midnight. Gusts to 80
kt. Seas 14 ft building to 23 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 60 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-251245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 65 kt after midnight. Gusts to 
80 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 33 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
35 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-251245-
Adak to Kiska-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 65 kt after midnight. Gusts to 80
kt. Bering side, seas 14 ft building to 24 ft after midnight. 
Pacific side, seas 23 ft building to 37 ft after midnight. Widespread
rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 26 ft. Pacific side, seas 35 ft subsiding to 27 ft in
the afternoon. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-251245-
Kiska to Attu-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers and 
rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ179-251245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 24 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-251245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-251245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-251245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 55 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An active pattern remains over the western Aleutians and Bering as
a front associated with a mature low moves eastward towards
Shemya, which has seen strong winds and snow overnight.
The latest ASCAT/advanced scatterometer pass has detected gale
force winds near Attu and Shemya with this new storm. A weakening
low over Bristol Bay that is bringing a few rain showers to areas
across the Southwest Alaskan coast as temperatures remain above
freezing. The front over the Gulf Of Alaska remains to be the main
weather driver for Southcentral this morning. The radar at Kenai
(PAHG) and Middleton Island (PAIH) have been active overnight and
early this morning. Areas along the north Gulf coast continue to
be influenced by the warm influx of moisture lifting northward
from the Gulf resulting in rain showers stretching from Homer to
Cordova. The warm trend continues, yesterday the highs at
Birchwood, Wasilla, Talkeetna and Kenai were 51F.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The global models are in good agreement with the synoptic scale
features through 00z Monday. Moreover, the GFS ensemble members
are tightly grouped with the high over the Arctic Ocean, the low
near the AKPEN and the low south of Kamchatka. There are some
minor differences with the areal coverage of the precipitation
shield over Southwest AK and over portions of Southcentral AK.
The NAM was used to for high resolution winds for portions of
Southcentral, but otherwise, the model of choice for the short
term package was the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist in the morning.
The cigs/ceilings will vary between 5,000 to 7,000 today at PANC.
By 6z, gusty winds will move out of Turnagain Arm and into the
PANC aerodrome.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A frontal system will remain across the area today, stretching
from the Alaska Range west of Skwentna east-southeast across the
Kenai Peninsula through the north Gulf coast. This is bringing
precipitation to the area, mainly along the eastern Kenai and
towards the western Alaska Range. The air mass is quite warm and
the precipitation at low elevation sites is in the form of rain. A
surface low developing to the southwest of Yakutat will slide
west-northwest today along the front, crossing the Kenai Peninsula
this afternoon and then moving across the Susitna Valley. This
will bring some gusty winds into the Knik Valley this afternoon
and into Anchorage in the evening. The front will then push
northward across Southcentral tonight. Another front associated
with a low south of the Gulf will move to the north Gulf coast
Sunday morning. As this front moves inland Sunday afternoon, the
flow aloft will switch from southeasterly to southwesterly. On
Sunday night a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the
area, with conditions drying out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Sat
through Mon)...

A 990 mb surface low just to the west of Kuskokwim Bay will
continue to track north while weakening, leading to subsiding
southeasterly winds and diminishing areas of precipitation today.
The next system approaches the area by early Sunday morning as a
front pushes across the SW coast. Most of the energy looks to
remain north over the Kuskokwim Delta, with strong southeasterly
winds and snowfall developing Sunday morning. The pattern begins
to change by Sunday night as a high amplitude longwave ridge
builds north over the mainland bringing another surge of warm
temperatures with persistent southerly flow at the surface.
Temperatures look to climb well into the 40s with some locations
reaching into the low 50s during the day on Monday. A strong low
approaches from the west by Monday with southeasterly winds
ramping up again along the coast. There were some concerns
regarding possible storm surge issues along the coast but the
track of the low is trending further west, keeping the wind
direction unfavorable for building surge high enough to be
impactful to coastal communities.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Sat
through Mon)...

Northerly winds will continue to diminish today over the eastern
Bering as a surface low to the east weakens. Fairly benign weather
will be present over the eastern Bering/Aleutians as a short wave
ridge moves over the area out ahead of the next system pushing
east across the Bering. Out west, a front pushing out ahead of a
surface low near Kamchatka will bring easterly gale force winds switching
to southwesterly as the front passes today. Gales look to
continue over the western Bering through early Sunday morning
before briefly diminishing later in the morning.

Attention turns to a very strong low rapidly approaching the west
Aleutians from the North Pacific by Sunday afternoon. The low
looks to rapidly intensify as it approaches, with the EC deepening
the central pressure from 970 mb to 946 mb between Sunday and
Monday morning (24 mb in 24 hrs). Models are mostly locked on to
the low, with the center tracking north across the Rat Islands and
into the western Bering Sunday night. Ahead of the low, a warm
front will push into the Bering Sunday evening bringing gale force
southerly winds and heavy rain. The strongest winds are expected
with the proceeding cold frontal passage across the western
Aleutians, with strong cold air advection (850 mb temps dropping
from +6c to -8C Sunday night) wrapping in around the backside of
the low. This will likely lead to hurricane force wind gusts near
Adak Sunday night into Monday morning before the narrow core of
strong winds pushes north into the western Bering through Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Gulf of Alaska... Expect generally benign conditions, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding as pressure builds.

Bering Sea... Confidence is high that a storm force low will
track into the Bering Sea from the western Aleutians Monday.
This will bring heavy seas and widespread gales to the central
Bering and Aleutians, with a swath of storm force winds southeast
of the low. The low will weaken and shift northward towards
eastern Siberia by Tuesday and winds will diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Confidence remains strong that a pattern change to drier
weather will begin over Southcentral Monday, as a longwave ridge
begins building over the area. Daytime conditions will trend at
least as warm as observed this week in most areas, though valley
locations will likely see colder nights driven by clear skies.
With ample surface moisture and atmospheric stability, there will
also be potential for morning fog which could decrease the
diurnal temperature range. The main question is when the ridge
will degrade, and model agreement is poor on that decision. Some
solutions show the ridge breaking down as early as midweek, with a
return to wetter weather following. That said, there is
indication that a high will rebuild and return the warm, dry
conditions into next weekend.

Looking farther west, a potent low will track from the western
Aleutians to the central Bering Monday. With an expected moisture
fetch almost to the tropics, expect heavy precipitation ahead of
the low. As the low shifts northward, the front and associated
precipitation and winds will progress eastward over the Aleutians
and Bering, then stall over Southwest Tuesday. A ridge in place
over Southcentral will likely diminish precipitation potential
over the Southwest mainland. Showers in cold air advection will
persist behind the front in the Bering Tuesday into Wednesday.
Forecast confidence drops substantially Wednesday
onward...based on model consistency, this forecast package is
leaning more towards quiet weather by midweek. Conditions over
the mainland will depend on the progression of the upper ridge.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 413 411 177 178 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PAMBER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM