Small Craft Advisory 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 11, 2019, 3:03 AM AKDT (11:03 UTC)

Expired

Aug 11, 2019, 3:45 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

612 
FZAK52 PAFC 111103
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-112345-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 255 nm northwest of Shemya moves to 400 nm southwest
of Gambell at 997 mb Mon morning before dissipating Mon 
afternoon. The associated front over the eastern Aleutians 
dissipates by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-112345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-112345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-112345-
Bristol Bay-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-112345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt, except variable less than 10 kt E of Port Moller.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-112345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-112345-
Unalaska Bay-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-112345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-112345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-112345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-112345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt, diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-112345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt, increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-112345-
Adak to Kiska-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-112345-
Kiska to Attu-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-112345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt, diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-112345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt, except variable less than 10 kt S of Cape
Newenham. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt, except variable 10 kt S of Cape Newenham. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-112345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-112345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
303 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of Saint Matthew
Island. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 10, 10:05 PM AKDT, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1005 PM AKDT Sat Aug 10 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The day to day analysis continues to be rather unchanged across
Southcentral this afternoon. High pressure is the dominant feature
east of the Alaska range with light northerly winds noted across
the region. Daytime cumulus clouds are dotting the mountain peaks
across much of the Anchorage Bowl and Copper River Valley with
cirrocumulus along the horizon. Across the western Bering is a
decaying and vertically stacked low with an occluded front draped
across the central aleutians to St. Paul. Surface observations are
showing 15-25 mph winds and rain across much of the western and
central Aleutian Chain this afternoon. Ridging in the eastern
Aleutians continues to yield abundant fog and stratus.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models across the state are in excellent synoptic agreement
through the mid range. Differences in guidance are not widely
apparent until early next week as some members are having trouble
resolving the evolution of a north Bering low and a trough
digging south of this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Tuesday evening)

Thunderstorms have developed over the Talkeetna Mountains and into
portions of the Copper River Basin, as daytime heating has
interacted with a disturbance passing overhead. These storms
should fall by the wayside as the sun sets later this evening.
Farther south, added in a slight chance for showers for portions
of the Kenai, as visible satellite imagery has shown rapid cumulus
development, with area web cams showing good vertical structure.
Given the 0-6km bulk shear values near 20 knots currently present,
it's not surprising for the clouds developing farther south,
given increased ascent associated with the vort max moving
through, aiding in cloud top ventilation. Weaker instability
though, due to maritime influences, should keep any convection to
the shower variety.

Otherwise, look for warm and dry conditions to prevail into the
start of the work week on Monday, before an approaching front
tries to push into the area, bringing us a chance for some much-
needed rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday
night through Tuesday)...

High pressure remains in place over Southwest Alaska. However, low
level stratus has been able to sneak in under the high today,
creating cloudy conditions for some areas. Tomorrow into Monday
the weak front that is currently in the Bering Sea will move
ashore into southwest AK. It will bring rain, cloud cover, and
cooling temperatures with it. High pressure trying to keep hold
will force most of the weather with this system generally north of
the Kuskokwim River. Models now agree this to be this case, though
some fine tuning may be required.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Saturday night through Tuesday)...

A weak frontal system is working its way east through the Bering
Sea. The low center for this frontal system is located just east
of the Kamchatka Peninsula. With the low center so far away, the
front will weaken considerably as it progresses east without
support from its parent low. The most recent observations and
scatterometer imagery also show this front is coming in a little
weaker than expected, with winds maxing out around 30 mph. There
will still be plenty of cloud cover, fog and rain associated with
this system. Expect low cloud cover and some fog to hang around as
this front passes the next couple of days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Gulf of Alaska:

High pressure will remain across the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday.
Wednesday and into Thursday, winds will become west to northwest.
Confidence is gaining that these winds across the Barrens will be
high end small craft winds by Thursday. They are expected to last
through early Friday. There may potentially be low end gale force
gusts with the Barren Island winds Thursday.

Bering Sea:

Southerly winds will be a mainstay across the Bering Tuesday
through Thursday. A sub gale force front will sweep across the
central Bering Tuesday and Wednesday before weakening. There is
still some uncertainty as to whether this front will bring low end
southerly gales as well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

High pressure across the area will begin to get pinched off in the
central portion of the state and retreat to the south. A front
across the Bering and western Alaska will slide east by Tuesday
bringing clouds and cooler daytime temperatures to Southcentral.
Lack of clear skies means that overnight lows could be rather
warm, as we wont be radiating the heat out to the sky. Chances for
rain still remain bleak for south central. A fast moving shortwave
is projected to ride this front as it stalls out across the Alaska
range Tuesday and into Wednesday. Depending on where this energy
ends up, could mean pockets of scattered showers for areas other
than the mountains. Unfortunately, it is not looking like there
are any widespread, typical August, rain events for Southcentral
through next week. Since June first, Anchorage has received 1.2
inches of rain. The normal for that span is 3.65 inches, leaving
us in a nearly two and a half inch deficit as we head into what
would normally be the wettest part of the year.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2019Every small craft advisory in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.