Gale Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

710 
FZAK52 PAFC 291256
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300130-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb low 170 south of Shemya Tue morning moves to 180 nm east
of Shemya at 992 mb by Wed morning. A new front moves over the 
western Aleutians by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-300130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300130-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300130-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300130-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific
side. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft Bering side... 22 ft Pacific
side.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Bering side, seas 11 ft. Pacific side, seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300130-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-300130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

225 
FZAK52 PAFC 300028
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301315-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 85 nm south of Kiska moves to 100 nm south of Atka at 
1000 mb dissipating Tue afternoon. A 962 mb low 415 nm south of Attu
Wed afternoon moves to 135 nm southwest of Attu at 946 mb Thu 
morning then shifts to 390 nm west of Attu. 

$$

PKZ150-301315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301315-
Bristol Bay-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301315-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301315-
Adak to Kiska-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Bering side, SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Pacific side, SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side...21
ft Pacific side. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft Bering side...19 ft Pacific side.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301315-
Kiska to Attu-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 2 ft. Areas of fog S of 59N.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-301315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Mon Jan 28 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A fairly deep upper-level trough extended from eastern Siberia
southward towards the far western Aleutians, with a deep surface
low anchoring this trough southwest of Shemya. An occluded front
stretched across the western portions of the chain, with this
morning's scatterometer pass showing sustain storm force winds
continuing just north of here. Another trough extended south
across the eastern Bering into the north Pacific, with ridging in
between. To the east, an even stronger ridge was poking up from
the Panhandle towards the Yukon border. This has resulted in a
deep southerly flow developing across the Alaska Range into
southcentral, with warm advection continuing. Also of note is this
mornings water vapor imagery, which shows a tropical fetch
surging north into the Gulf, with a surface low located well
offshore to the southeast of Kodiak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in good agreement in their surface and upper-
level forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Mainly VFR conditions with light winds are expected to
persist through 04z as some periods of snow and rain develop.
However, ceilings and visibilities will be reduced in the heavier
bursts of precipitation.

By this evening, precipitation coverage is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity, with wet-bulb cooling effects allowing
temperatures to cool to freezing or below. This looks to occur
after 04z. Earlier guidance indicated a freezing rain to snow
potential for the evening into the overnight hours, and this
remains possible. However, the latest guidance is trending
towards a mainly snow event with light accumulations possible. In
either case, MVFR ceilings with IFR visibilities are anticipated
and this was inserted into the amended TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The big forecast challenge remains precipitation type today
through Tuesday evening from the Kenai Peninsula northward
through the Susitna Valley, including the Anchorage area and
Matanuska Valley. The first low that was moving through the
western Gulf of Alaska from south to north has elongated as a
second low, following almost the same track, catches up to it and
absorbs it. With warm air spilling into the area with these lows
there will be a mix of precipitation types. While the overall
pattern over the Anchorage area looks like there may be some rain
or freezing at times, the more recent model runs have been hinting
at more snow as the precipitation type. Part of this is due to
the warmest of the air aloft sliding in just east of Anchorage
allowing the city to remain in slightly colder air while Palmer
and Wasilla may get slightly warmer air (and the terrain in this
pattern actually allows more low level warming in the Matanuska
Valley than Anchorage). That is how close the edge between
precipitation types looks for today through Tuesday. Tuesday will
see slightly warmer temperatures across the region which may
switch most of the precipitation to rain over Anchorage, the
Matanuska Valley, and the rest of the Cook Inlet region. This is
also quite uncertain and will be watched to see how it develops.

Higher elevations of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains will see all
snow and areas of heavy snow at that. Thompson Pass will be an
area that will likely see snowfall overnight in the 12 to 18 inch
range with some 20 to 30 mph wind gusts to help further reduce
visibility in the heavy snow.

Areas of the Richardson Highway in the southern part of the
Copper River Basin will also see significant snowfall overnight
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Monday
through Wednesday)...
Low pressure to the east is expected to send moisture into
southwest Alaska today into tonight, making for a few inches of
snow in eastern zones 161 and 152. There could be some areas of
mixed precipitation as the surface warm layer holds on in
southwest Alaska. After this system passes, weather is pretty
quiet the next couple of days. Gradual cooling will continue as
cold air filters in from the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Monday
through Wednesday)...

A powerful low is still forecast to move through the western
Aleutians, with storm force winds forecasted through tonight for
the western Aleutians and Western Bering Sea. Unfortunately
Shemya, our one observation in the western Aleutians, is not
operating. This means it will be difficult to verify the strength
of the low unless we get a ship observation or a satellite pass.

This low is expected to weaken as it progresses east through the
Aleutians. By Wednesday it becomes pretty stretched out with a
disorganized center. Wind speeds should be mainly small craft
with maybe a few gales by then. Late Wednesday the next low enters
the western Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

With a couple of strong frontal systems lifting up from the south,
gale to possibly storm force winds look likely in the Aleutians
and Bering Wednesday afternoon through Friday. The strongest
winds will initially start in the western Aleutian and then
become more widespread and expand to the north and east with each
subsequent frontal system. Conditions in the Gulf will generally
be quieter, with the exception of along the northern Gulf coast
where strong north to northeasterly outflow gap winds will
develop Thursday and Friday. Stronger frontal systems will begin
impacting the Southwestern Gulf around Saturday as the active
southwesterly Aleutian/Bering storm track shifts east to direct
the stronger frontal systems into the eastern Bering and
eventually western Gulf through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Tuesday evening an elongated vertically stacked low will
stretch across the southern half of the Bering, the Aleutians and
the Alaska Peninsula with a flat upper level ridge extending over
the eastern Gulf, southeast Alaska Panhandle and British Columbia.
Further to the north, an upper level ridge will stretch from
eastern Russia across the Bering Strait to the Seward Peninsula
with an arctic trough centered over the Beaufort Sea. The center
of the arctic low will dig south through the Yukon and Northwest
Territories Wednesday and Thursday, while the upper level ridging
shifts over western Alaska and amplifies. This will put
southcentral Alaska under northerly flow aloft with a vorticity
maximum and accompanying strong push of cold air and north winds
surging into the area Thursday and Thursday night. Cold offshore
flow with strong gap winds will persist along the northern Gulf
Coast through Friday and then begin to gradually diminish
Saturday.

A north Pacific frontal system will approach the western Aleutians
on Wednesday. A frontal wave further to the south along the same
system will rapidly deepen Wednesday night as it tracks north to
push a strong front across the western and central Aleutians on
Thursday. The front will continue northeast, though weakening
gradually as it does so, to cross the eastern Aleutians Thursday
night and reach the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Bering Friday.
Another front will follow behind it Friday and Saturday with the
track of its main surface low shifting further east in response
to the eastward progression of the large supporting upper level
trough and strong jet stream to the south.

By Saturday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east to
be centered over mainland Alaska with what looks to be a fairly
strong overrunning frontal system pushing into Southwest Alaska
Saturday and continuing into southcentral Alaska late Saturday
night and through Sunday. In response, the upper level ridge will
flatten and be pushed east with a second system following Sunday
and Monday and the active southwesterly storm track likely
continuing through midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177 178
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 139 170 172 173 174

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM