Gale Warning 80, NWS Anchorage, AK

456 
FZAK52 PAFC 231400 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240215-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 966 mb low 280 nm
southwest of Saint Paul moves over Shemya at 970 mb Wed night. The 
low then moves 340 nm south of Shemya at 980 mb Thu night. A 973 mb 
low over Bristol Bay moves over Norton Sound at 985 mb Wed evening 
and then dissipates. A 976 mb low 250 nm southeast of Sand Point Thu 
afternoon moves inland over the AKPEN at 975 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ150-240215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240215-
Bristol Bay-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas in ice free 
waters 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240215-
Unalaska Bay-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow with rain.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240215-
Adak to Kiska-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240215-
Kiska to Attu-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 18 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
Snow showers...mixing with rain in the evening.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-240215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-240215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
500 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt in the evening
becoming variable 10 kt. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 35 kt.
Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

567 
FZAK52 PAFC 240005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-241300-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 mb low 235 nm north of Kiska loops over Attu to 220 nm
northeast of Kiska at 978 mb then dissipates Fri afternoon. A 978
mb low 85 nm south of Nikolski moves to 75 nm southeast of St
Matthew Island at 984 mb dissipating Fri afternoon. Its front 
slides into the Chukchi Sea by Fri afternoon. A 978 mb low 705 nm
southwest of Attu Thu afternoon drives its front to 225 nm south
of Kiska for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-241300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft 
building to 20 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-241300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt
becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-241300-
Bristol Bay-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-241300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. From Port Moller E, seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-241300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain 
showers.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-241300-
Unalaska Bay-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-241300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-241300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-241300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-241300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-241300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-241300-
Adak to Kiska-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...18 ft Pacific side.
Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-241300-
Kiska to Attu-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt, except N 30 kt W of Shemya. Seas 18 ft. 
Snow and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt, except E 25 kt N of Shemya. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ179-241300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 
13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-241300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft building
to 11 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-241300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-241300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Ridging remains entrenched over eastern portions of the state
extending from southeast Alaska through the northwestern part of
the state. There is also a low near the central Aleutians slowly
tracking to the northwest with its front stretches over southwest
Alaska and Kodiak Island on its way to the Kenai Peninsula. This
setup has resulted in southerly flow for most locations that is
pulling up an abundance of warm air resulting in many locations
switching from snow to rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent synoptic agreement until Wednesday
afternoon when they struggle to track a new system approaching the
Aleutians from the south. They are many differences in how
multiple lows will develop along the front with this system.
However, there is still some agreement with timing of the front.
On Thursday models are having even greater difficulty with
position and movement of multiply lows in the region. The worst is
with a low approaching the Alaska Peninsula Thursday afternoon.
There is a general consensus of it approaching the peninsula, but
timing, intensity and position are all off.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light surface winds will persist.
Turnagain Arm winds look to increase this evening but should not
move in over the city at the surface. However, some of the
Turnagain Arm winds will move in overhead resulting in windshear
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main forecast challenges over the next 48 hours will be
precipitation type coverage as temperatures warm, and increasing
wind speeds for the Turnagain Arm and Upper Hillside. We've
already received a report of icy road conditions this afternoon at
Anchor Point as the initial precipitation ahead of an approaching
front moved into the area. This front will reach the Kenai
Peninsula tonight before and then lift into the Mat-Su
Valleys/Anchorage Bowl by early afternoon. Although the front will
be weakening somewhat as frontolysis takes hold (the weakening of
a front), the pressure gradient will still be sufficient to cause
an increase in winds for Turnagain Arm into the Upper Hillside.
Here, winds could reach the 50 to 70 mph range. With strong
downsloping in the typical rain shadow areas, look for mainly
spotty flurries/drizzle with some brief increase in coverage as
frontal passage occurs.

Our attention then turns to a much stronger front that will cross
the region for the Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
time frame, as a strong low lifts into the Bering Sea. The front
will be in the occlusion process with very strong upper-level
support as a lobe of vorticity (this brings increasing lift with a
front helping to enhance precipitation potential, while also
having strong downward mixing potential) crosses the region.
Strong dry advection behind frontal passage will likely cause some
gusty wind conditions with increasing temperatures as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A complicated weather pattern exists for southwest Alaska. Low
pressure in the Bering Sea is slowly moving northward, with
several waves of energy circulating around it. This is making for
an active weather pattern and timing out these pulses of energy
will be the forecast challenge for the next few days. Models are
not handling the timing of these waves either, making the forecast
that much more challenging. Past Wednesday, the forecast
confidence is low due to poor model quality and the complexity of
the situation.

The next pulse of energy will move through tonight bringing rain
and snow with it. Rain and mixed precipitation will be present on
the lee side of the mountains where temperatures have warmed
enough. Snow will be elsewhere as low level northeasterly flow
will keep temperatures cool enough for snow. Winds will quickly
shift southeast tomorrow, bringing in warmer temperatures and
transitioning some areas to a rain or rain/snow mix in the
afternoon on the tail end of this next wave. The following wave is
expected to arrive early Thursday, but will need some more detail
on that system with model data performing poorly. Overall, a
complicated forecast the next few days so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure continues to slowly move northward through the
Central Bering Sea. This low has several waves of weather
circulating around it, making for an active weather pattern over
the entire area. Timing out these waves of energy will be the
forecast challenge for the next few days. Models are not handling
this pattern well, with timing issues with each of these waves
coming through which adds to the complexity and challenge of
figuring out what is going on. This also means forecast confidence
is low past Wednesday.

Where we do have some confidence is in the first 48hrs. The
initial wave passed through yesterday with the second passing
earlier today. A third wave is approaching the eastern Aleutians
now and will move through tonight. It will bring rain showers and
gusty winds with it. Models did agree on some stronger winds in
the Bristol Bay area, so upped winds to gale force level there.
The following round of energy can be seen on satellite in the
North Pacific and is expected to pass through the Eastern Aleutians
tomorrow night and will be slightly weaker. Yet another round of
energy is expected Thursday for the eastern Bering, but this is
where confidence gets low so will wait to detail this to when it
gets closer in time.

Meanwhile in the Western Bering and Western Aleutians northerly
flow will be present on the backside of the low. This means cooler
temperatures and snow showers. This cooler air is also getting
entrained into the low and wrapping around it, making for a messy
precipitation type profile around the low, with a mix of rain and
snow around the low in the Central Bering. All in all, a very
complicated forecast for the next few days, so stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
An active and challenging pattern will continue through the
weekend. Thursday and Friday will see a strong low lift across the
AKPEN bringing high end gales, with the possibility of storm force
winds. Model guidance is still uncertain and is keeping confidence
levels moderate on the track and timing, but high on intensity. On
the heels of that system is one that will move into the Bering
this weekend. The current track slides a deepening low through
Adak and towards the Pribs. High end gales are expected. Storm
force winds, and possibly higher on Sunday through the central
Aleutians are not out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The longwave pattern isn't changing much through the weekend.
Ridging across the Gulf of Alaska will slide east and weaken as a
deepening trough moves into the western Bering. That signal
spells continued active weather for much of the extended forecast.
The first system will slam into the AKPEN Friday and into this
weekend. A second system will track into the Bering and both will
bring strong winds, warm air and unseasonal conditions. Above
freezing temperatures are expected for south central and coastal
locations, while some inland areas may cool below freezing
overnight. The return to winter (temperatures) is looking to occur
early into the next work week, though a shunt to warm may be on
it's heels as well.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 13>132 136 137 150 155 160 178 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS