Gale Warning 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 21, 2019, 3:13 PM AKST (00:13 UTC)

Expired

Jan 22, 2019, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

822 
FZAK52 PAFC 220013
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221300-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 mb low 25 nm Southeast of Seguam Island moves to 270 nm West
of St Paul Island at 973 mb for Wed afternoon. Its front wraps 
over the Aleutians and Central Bering through Wed afternoon. A 
972 mb North Pacific low 790 nm South of Amchitka loops over 
Bethel at 988 mb by Wed afternoon. Its front pushes into the 
Western Gulf of Alaska for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221300-
Bristol Bay-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221300-
Unalaska Bay-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221300-
Adak to Kiska-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific
side. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific side.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221300-
Kiska to Attu-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island. Widespread snow 
showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-221300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 21, 5:23 AM AKST, 9 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level ridge is retreating as a low pressure system south
of the Aleutians is pushing a front north across the southern
mainland. Satellite imagery shows high and mid level cloud cover
streaming north across the the AKPEN and Gulf of Alaska as
precipitation is beginning to show up on the King Salmon radar
just to the south of King Salmon. A weak surface low is currently
spinning over the Gulf bringing snow showers to the Price William
Sound and Northern Gulf Coast. Radar imagery also shows snow
showers pushing across the Western Kenai Peninsula and even across
the Anchorage area, though local observations and webcams show
this is mostly evaporating before reaching the ground. Meanwhile,
the surface low further west over the Aleutians is bringing
strong winds and snow showers to the area, with scatterometer
passes showing a wide swath of gale force winds over most of the
southern Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through Tuesday as a series of fronts
pushes north across the AKPEN and Gulf of Alaska. By Wednesday, a
secondary low moves up from the North Pacific and crosses over
the AKPEN and into Bristol Bay. Models have recently been
struggling with how far east or west the low would track, which
would have a significant impact to weather across the southern
mainland. The NAM has been the outlier tracking the low further
east across the SW mainland while the GFS and EC have been keeping
the low further west over Bristol Bay. Recent NAM runs have been
trending further west towards the GFS/EC solutions, thus trended
towards that solution as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...An approaching front from the south is helping to
destabilize the atmosphere and has eroded all remaining fog and
low stratus in the area. VFR conditions and light northeasterly
winds will prevail for the TAF period with just a chance of some
light snow this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Tuesday night)...
Broad southerly flow above the surface combined with a weak upper
level wave will produce areas of very light snow across
Southcentral today. Generally expect flurries or a dusting inland.
Low level instability and upslope flow along the coast and Prince
William Sound will lead to snow showers and some minor snow
accumulation. Further south, a weakening occluded front extending
from a deep low along the Aleutians will slowly lift northward
toward Kodiak Island today, then fall apart before reaching the
northern Gulf tonight. Another upper level short-wave will lift
northward, but will weaken as it crosses Southcentral due to
rapidly rising heights aloft as the upper level flow amplifies.
Thus, expect little in the way of precipitation with it. Low level
southeast flow will favor upslope precipitation in western Prince
William Sound as well as the west side of Cook Inlet and the
western Susitna Valley.

Another occluded front will make its way to Kodiak Island on
Tuesday, with temperatures warm enough to produce all rain. This
front will also dissipate as it lifts northward toward Southcentral.
A much more significant storm system is shaping up for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. While there is uncertainty in the storm
track, there is high confidence this system will track into the
Bering Sea. Deep southerly flow will pump up warm air from the
Pacific to Southcentral, so as precipitation spreads to the Gulf
coast on Wednesday it will fall as mostly rain. Strong low level
southeast flow will lead to downslope drying for the population
centers, from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley. The exact track of the storm will ultimately determine how
significant of a warm-up these areas see.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Today and
Tuesday)... An occluded front associated with a North Pacific low
nearing the central Aleutians will bring precipitation to much of
Southwest over the next two days and, in its wake, a shift to
warmer weather.

The front is currently stretched from the AKPEN to the central
Aleutians. High pressure over eastern Siberia and an Arctic upper
low over northern AK have maintained offshore flow and very cold,
dry conditions in the lower Kuskokwim Valley/Kuskokwim Delta,
however farther south along the AKPEN temperatures have started to
increase in southerly flow behind the front. Expect blowing snow
in the Bristol Bay area later today, then a transition to rain and
temperatures above freezing Tuesday. Looking farther north, the
lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta will hang on to
northeast flow at the surface until later tonight, and expect
blowing snow along the Kusko Delta coast tonight. These areas will
likely hang on to cold air a bit longer than farther south, but
even inland valleys will warm to above freezing by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Today and
Tuesday)... A gale force North Pacific low is slowly shifting
north/northwest toward the central Aleutians. This low will
continue to bring areas of gales to the western Aleutians and
widespread gales to much of the Bering, including the Pribilofs,
throughout the day. Over the eastern Aleutians, winds will slowly
diminish today as the low gradually shifts westward.

An occluded front associated with the low currently stretches
from the AKPEN to the central Aleutians, and ptypes over the
central and eastern Aleutians have changed over to rain.
Temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s will persist into
Tuesday. The western Aleutians remain on the cold side of the low,
thus will continue snow or rain/snow mix. A deformation band
nearing the Pribilofs is evident on water vapor satellite which
will enhance precipitation rates. With northeast gales at the
surface, expect blowing snow today into tonight. As the front
lifts north of the area, winds will veer to southerly and
precipitation will transition to rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Wednesday through Friday)

The marine outlook remains challenging as model continuity remains
modest. The general trend over the last 24 hours has been for a
northwestward shift in the surface and upper air pattern, as a
ridge of high pressure build northwest across the east central
Gulf, then across southcentral alaska into the North Slope. This
will also allow a series of lows lifting across the western and
central Aleutians on Wednesday to retrograde towards the western
Aleutians and Kamchatka Peninsula by Friday. How fast this occurs
and where the low pressure centers will be is yet to be
determined.

However, there has been some improvement with this since
yesterday. The GFS and Canadian models have similar forecast
solutions, where as the European model (ECMWF) seems somewhat in
agreement, but to a much lesser extent. This causes surface low
strength differences of up to 20 mb. Overall, the most likely
scenario at this point is for each system and their associated
fronts to bring sustained gale force winds with some gusts perhaps
approaching lower-end storm force. Some of these fronts may reach
the western Gulf before weakening as the bump into the downstream
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Model uncertainty remains moderate in the Wednesday through Friday
time frame, before the numerical forecasts continuity degrades
more towards the weekend. In general the surface and upper pattern
favors a ridge of high pressure gradually building northwestward
from the eastern Pacific, into the east central Gulf, continuing
towards the North Slope and eastern Siberia. This would allow for
moderating temperatures as we head through the period with some
precipitation type issues for Southcentral possibly developing,
due to warmer air aloft advecting over the colder surface
conditions, as a weakening front from the Bering lows tries to
push into the region before weakening somewhat while slowing down.
Should this occur, the over-running warm air around 850 mb would
cause at least some precipitation type concerns, most likely to
develop in the late Wednesday through Thursday time frame.

Meanwhile, a series of lows will continue to lift north across
the central Aleutians before stalling as they build into the
building ridge, causing each low to rotate around each other in a
Fujiwhara-like fashion early on. As the ridge continues to build
towards the weekend, its associated effect will be to shift this
area of disturbed weather further west towards the western
Aleutians, extending northwestward towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130 139 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185 411 412 413 414
         Heavy Freezing Spray 160 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.